"Give Bavaria My Love" (how Nineteen Eighty-Four could have happened)
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  "Give Bavaria My Love" (how Nineteen Eighty-Four could have happened)
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Author Topic: "Give Bavaria My Love" (how Nineteen Eighty-Four could have happened)  (Read 612 times)
HillGoose
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« on: November 11, 2017, 01:51:18 AM »

"We're the only thing separating them from the Eastern Hordes, and Eisenhower will need someone to keep order after the war is over. If we hold Berlin for a few more days, we will make a deal with the West"

So I was thinking (crazy I know, I had steam coming out of my ears and all) and I was thinking about the superstates in Orwell's Nineteen Eighty-Four. I read that book, and I disliked it, but I was interested in how the history must have happened to create the superstates. This is what I came up with.

It begins with the Nazi alpine fortress, the POD is that it actually gets built circa 1944, and eventually leads to a sort of Operation Unthinkable.

In April 1945, mass evacuations of fanatical German troops and leading Nazis begin to areas of southern Bavaria, Austria, and Northern Italy. Of course the western Allies are tasked with clearing Bavaria and Austria, while the Soviets take the remnants of Nazi Germany in the East.

Let's say the Alpine Fortress holds out a lot longer than would have been expected, and in July 1945 the Western Allies are still engaged in a bloody struggle in the Alps against the remaining Nazis.

Stalin sees this weakness, and lets say he basically decides that:

1. The Western Allies are in a much weaker position, having to focus their European efforts on this difficult area and taking heavy casualties.
2. The Pacific War is still winnable for Japan, IF they receive a little assistance.

So by the first of July 1945, Stalin begins attacks on the Western Allies in central Europe. The Western Allies immediately offer the remaining Nazis a "German homeland" basically promising them the core territory of Germany if they help them win the war against the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union also enters the Pacific War on the side of Japan.

By the end of July, the allies have been driven into the Low Countries, and by August they have two nuclear weapons available for use, with the targets being Kaliningrad in the European theater, and Hiroshima in the Pacific theater.

By January 1947, the allies have withdrawn to Britain, and throughout 1947 they continue nuclear attacks on Europe, although due to not having a good range in the air, they are mostly focused on cities in Western Europe that are occupied by the Soviets, but not part of the Soviet homeland, such as Amsterdam, Paris, and Ghent. The allies have been pushed out of the Japanese home islands entirely, and the Pacific War has begun to turn in the favor of the Japanese, and the Japanese, along with Soviet help, crush China.

The war mostly remains a stalemate for the entirety of 1947. In 1948, life for the average citizen is deteriorating in the nations of every alliance. This leads to the United States annexing most of North America by this point. However, in 1948 the Soviet nuclear program reaches success. By the end of 1948, the Soviets reignite the war by dropping the bomb on Colchester and Norwich. The ensuing panic in the United Kingdom forces the United States to absorb the British Empire as well.

In 1949, with the war appearing at a complete stalemate that is unwinnable for any side, the leaders of each side negotiate an end to the war.

The United States (from then on to be called Oceania) has a sphere of influence consisting of the Americas, Oceania, Africa to the south of the river Congo, and the United Kingdom.

The Soviet Union (from then on to be known as Eurasia) consists of Russia eastward to Siberia, continental Europe, and Turkey.

The Japanese Empire (from then on to be called Eastasia) receives the Japanese homeland, all of China, and parts of Northern India and the eastern part of the Middle East.

How plausible or implausible does this sound?




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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #1 on: November 11, 2017, 08:03:03 AM »

Moscow is well within B-29 range from Airstrip One. Within the context of the book, any observable POD needs to be post-1948. Last but not least, Eastasia is presented in the book as China-centric, not Japan.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #2 on: November 12, 2017, 12:21:53 AM »

I think a more realistic route is a joint Kuomintang/Communist China Front against Japan that rapidly crushes the latter in mainland Asia and pledges to an alliance with the Soviet Union under Khrushchev. Liu Shaoqi, Chen Yun, Deng Xiaoping, besides Sun Fo, Yan Xishan, Ma Hongkui, Ma Hongbin, and Li Zongren, would create a “democratic socialist reformed state” with limited private businesses. Though unlike the Soviet model, it’s position within the Non-Aligned Movement would not be hostile to the Soviets.

That said, I think a Chinese-dominated Asia would involve China ruling Korea, Vietnam, and maybe the Philippines. I think Soviet domination of Europe would require an alliance between Stalin, Tito, Leon Blum, Vincent Auriol, Amadeo Bordiga, Juan Negrín, Johann Koplenig, and Álvaro Cunhal. If Álvaro Cunhal and Humberto Delgado staged a coup in, say, 1950, and then led an intervention against Franco, I could see the Soviet Union supporting them and then supporting communists throughout Europe, beginning with Spain, then Portugal, and then France.
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