Alabama Megathread 2: Thou Shall Not Touch Teenage Girls

[KingSweden]

Really interesting article from SurveyMonkey (https://www.surveymonkey.com/curiosity/alabama-senate-race-a-poll-without-a-prediction/).  They polled the race but depending on which voter model they use, the results can be interpreted as anything from Jones+9 to Moore+10.

That... that’s a WIDE spread.

[Babeuf]

Interesting findings from the poll:
Republicans who have defected to Jones are 2/3 female and nearly half aged 44 or younger. Without their support, Jones would trail in every likely voter scenario.

Also that 38% of the Republicans who are for Jones say they could still change their minds. This compares to 17% of Republicans for Moore who say they could change their minds.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Really interesting article from SurveyMonkey (https://www.surveymonkey.com/curiosity/alabama-senate-race-a-poll-without-a-prediction/).  They polled the race but depending on which voter model they use, the results can be interpreted as anything from Jones+9 to Moore+10.

This was well known to anybody who understood that polling this race was extremely difficult due to the circumstances of it being a special election in December. All the more reason why the confident Jones predictions and even more numerous confident Moore predictions are putting the cart before the horse. We don't know what the electorate is going to look like. Moore is the favorite, but this is the definitely the most vulnerable this seat has been in decades.

Turnout will be the deciding factor in the race, as well as how the "Other" votes split and to what degree.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Turnout will be the deciding factor in the race.

Drink!

[The Other Castro]

Turnout will be the deciding factor in the race.

Drink!

The only poll that matters is on election day.

#LoserSpeak

[Holmes]

So... what are SurveyMonkey's top line numbers?

[GeorgiaModerate]

So... what are SurveyMonkey's top line numbers?

Among all RV, they have Jones 53-45.  See Landslide Lyndon's post upthread for all the other models.

[Holmes]

Interesting. A Moore +7 poll followed by a Jones +8 poll in the same day.

[The Other Castro]

Regardless of the authenticity of the yearbook signature, I do think major damage may have been done by this situation with the date and location reveal.

[Arkansas Yankee]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Jesus, this guy is a suspected pedophile, hardcore theocrat, and now a Putin apologist... could he be any worse?

The question was could he be any worse.  The answer is yes.  STOP ASKING STUPID QUESTIONS.

[Arkansas Yankee]

If she lied about this, who is to say she didn't make up the whole thing.  This always kind of felt like a Democratic hit piece, but, due to the severity of the allegations, I remained on the fence about whether it was true or not.  Now, I'm very confident that Moore is innocent.

Be careful.  You have probably relegated yourself to Hell.

Before I join you I would like some more evidence on the notation and signature.

[DrScholl]

She didn't forge anything, the signature is clearly his and she never stated that he dated the page. Second, there are numerous other accusers. It's pretty farfetched to say that this is all some massive conspiracy.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Modest proposal: ban all future mentions of Ted Kennedy from this thread (and the next AL megathread).  It's getting worse than Austriaposting now.

You will also have to ban the name of Clinton.  

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

If she lied about this, who is to say she didn't make up the whole thing.  This always kind of felt like a Democratic hit piece, but, due to the severity of the allegations, I remained on the fence about whether it was true or not.  Now, I'm very confident that Moore is innocent.

Be careful.  You have probably relegated yourself to Hell.

Before I join you I would like some more evidence on the notation and signature.

Why the hell would someone fake a yearbook and yet not only put an address and phone number in different handwriting, but admit that she wrote it herself. Not to mention the how many other victims and him being enough of a prowling monster to get banned from a mall for it. Your defenses of this are sickening.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Well, if she forged the whole thing then I guess all Moore has to do is to sue her for defamation and be vindicated by the courts.
Amirite?

[Doimper]

If she lied about this, who is to say she didn't make up the whole thing.  This always kind of felt like a Democratic hit piece, but, due to the severity of the allegations, I remained on the fence about whether it was true or not.  Now, I'm very confident that Moore is innocent.

Be careful.  You have probably relegated yourself to Hell.

Before I join you I would like some more evidence on the notation and signature.

Why the hell would someone fake a yearbook and yet not only put an address and phone number in different handwriting, but admit that she wrote it herself. Not to mention the how many other victims and him being enough of a prowling monster to get banned from a mall for it. Your defenses of this are sickening.

Aw, shucks, can't you see that he's just a good God-fearing American that voted for a man who admitted to leering at naked fifteen year-olds? The real problem in America today is forum posters who are mean to Trump voters.

[mcmikk]

Alabama has a very proud 200 year history of being on the wrong side of it. Keep it going.

Roll Tide!

[Arkansas Yankee]

Kennedy died in 2009. The most relevant comparison-and even then it pales in comparison to how terrible Moore is-is the treatment of Conyers and Franken. Yes, the Democrats were too lenient at first, but now they've forced out their harassers. There's a stark contrast between Franken being forced to resign and Donald Trump(an alleged harasser himself) endorsing Roy Moore who did far worse than Franken.

And if they replace Conyers, Sr with Jr., they will replace a sexual predator with a woman abuser (even one who uses a knife.

Has Franken left yet?  If Moore is elected will he stay?

Have they dealt with the Clintons?  Unfortunately for them, the Clintons are not through with them.

[KingSweden]

Really interesting article from SurveyMonkey (https://www.surveymonkey.com/curiosity/alabama-senate-race-a-poll-without-a-prediction/).  They polled the race but depending on which voter model they use, the results can be interpreted as anything from Jones+9 to Moore+10.

This was well known to anybody who understood that polling this race was extremely difficult due to the circumstances of it being a special election in December. All the more reason why the confident Jones predictions and even more numerous confident Moore predictions are putting the cart before the horse. We don't know what the electorate is going to look like. Moore is the favorite, but this is the definitely the most vulnerable this seat has been in decades.

Turnout will be the deciding factor in the race, as well as how the "Other" votes split and to what degree.

I for one admire a pollster shrugging and saying “who the hell knows”

[Arkansas Yankee]

GRAAAAAAH

I'm going to strangle Gloria Allred.

Why the **** would you not come out and say that?? All you've done is add more fuel to the forgery-theory flames!!

I would like to watch.  But maybe I might stop you, because she could provide more useful services in the future.

I will be a witness that it was justified.