Alabama Megathread 2: Thou Shall Not Touch Teenage Girls

[McGovernForPrez]

I feel like to many people are going "lol it's Alabama". Yeah it's Alabama but this scandal only seems to be deepening. It's likely that Moore ends up being more of an Akin than a Trump. The fact that even Breitbart is abandoning him pretty much proves that he's toast.

1) Akin would've won in Alabama.

2) Akin might even have won a 2018 rematch in Missouri. At the very least he'd make it a single digit race. Times have changed.

3) Moore still leads in most of the polls.

There's nothing to suggest a Jones victory except cherry picking polls or having unearned faith in Alabama voters.

I think your faith in voters is far too low. Sure Akin would have won Alabama but Moore's controversy is far worse than Akin's. Alabama is a really lame state with a lot of very "deplorable" voters, but I think the votes are easily out there. Almost all the polls do show a massive swing towards Jones. The race was already a high single digits race before the controversy. Even outlier polls like Emerson have shown a massive shift.

[Ebsy]

Roy Moore is apparently not popular with voters nationally.

[IceSpear]

I feel like to many people are going "lol it's Alabama". Yeah it's Alabama but this scandal only seems to be deepening. It's likely that Moore ends up being more of an Akin than a Trump. The fact that even Breitbart is abandoning him pretty much proves that he's toast.

1) Akin would've won in Alabama.

2) Akin might even have won a 2018 rematch in Missouri. At the very least he'd make it a single digit race. Times have changed.

3) Moore still leads in most of the polls.

There's nothing to suggest a Jones victory except cherry picking polls or having unearned faith in Alabama voters.

I think your faith in voters is far too low. Sure Akin would have won Alabama but Moore's controversy is far worse than Akin's. Alabama is a really lame state with a lot of very "deplorable" voters, but I think the votes are easily out there. Almost all the polls do show a massive swing towards Jones. The race was already a high single digits race before the controversy. Even outlier polls like Emerson have shown a massive shift.

Massive swings don't make a difference though if he's still ahead. Moore still becomes a Senator (at least for days/weeks) whether he wins by 2 points or 20 points.

Roy Moore is apparently not popular with voters nationally.

Luckily for him, only the opinions of Alabama voters matter.

[EnglishPete]

I feel like to many people are going "lol it's Alabama". Yeah it's Alabama but this scandal only seems to be deepening. It's likely that Moore ends up being more of an Akin than a Trump. The fact that even Breitbart is abandoning him pretty much proves that he's toast.

Yes, but put another way: "This attack job only seems to be intensifying. The fact that even Breitbart has been cucked on this story by the MSM only shows how much the fascist left want to take down this true American patriot by any means necessary."

Or as an Alabama evangelical might put it Luke 6 v 22,23 & 26 and John 8 vs 42-44

[Mr. Morden]

Roy Moore is apparently not popular with voters nationally.

Luckily for him, only the opinions of Alabama voters matter.

For getting elected in the first place, true.  But for getting expelled from the Senate by his fellow Senators, polls like this will be a green light to kick him out.

[Devout Centrist]

Would it be reasonable to expect Moore to actually stay put in the face of all these accusations and evidence of his creepiness coming to light? I mean we already seem past the usual line where politicians would resign. Now I feel like any day I could expect to wake up to "Moore drops out" followed shortly by "Alabama court replaces Moore on ballot with generic Republican"

Except this is Roy Moore we're talking about here. He wouldn't drop out if his life depended on it.

[7,052,770]

So yes all called ed Gillespie and Donald Trump racist for praising confederates how bout this ad.
http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2017/11/10/doug_jones_ad_confederate_officer_brave_soldiers_believed_in_their_cause.html

You guys always said every confederate is racist well now that you’re Party is doing thoughts?

Doug Jones is a national treasure who is defending our heritage.

Okay but you guys said it was racist when Gillespie did it but now that it’s a democrat it’s fine?
#Hypocrite

It's fine (although I still find it distasteful) to poor praise individual conscripted Confederate soldiers who had no choice but to fight for personal bravery, but not ok to praise slaveowners or officers who Bergdhaled out of the U.S. Army willingly to join a rebellion. /duh

[DrScholl]

Moore is done for and I don't think "It's Alabama" is enough to save him at this point. His 2012 Supreme Court margin was the weakest statewide margin of any Republican in quite awhile, which means there were quite a few Republican voters that did not like him before the allegations. It's a lot easier now for many voters to abandon him.

[MasterJedi]

Curious to see what percent of good Christian Alabamans support pedophilia, who used to what to shoot them, unless it's a Republican running for national office.

[Oryxslayer]

Here's my prediction: Moore wins narrowly, gets seated, and everyone forgets about this except for the activist left by February. If Gianforte body slamming a reporter on tape wasn't enough to get as much as a censure from the House, Moore won't be expelled from the Senate, as much as they want us to think they are so #disappointed at him now. Plus, it would be setting a dangerous precedent for the Senate if they were to actually take a stand against sexual harassment and assault, since, as someone pointed out in the other thread, there are probably dozens of people in Congress who have done similar things, albeit with girls who were probably closer to their own age.

So at least if I'm wrong, it will mean we are not on the absolute worst possible timeline, so that's good.

This is pretty obviously going to be the outcome of this fiasco, and I'd specify that "narrowly" refers to "narrowly by Alabama standards", i.e. within 10 points as opposed to recount-margin territory.

Someone's prediction of a 51-44 victory for Moore sounds about right, IMO. And yes, he will end up being seated and will stay seated for as long as he so chooses in all likelihood.

I ask why would Moore stay seated when he is rapidly anti-McConnel? It makes perfect sense to purge a inconsistent vote at best in favor of a safe vote. Remember, the senate pac spent millions trying to keep Strange in the chamber. They will get rid of Moore and get a sager vote, pervertism is just a excellent excuse to do it

[IceSpear]

Curious to see what percent of good Christian Alabamans support pedophilia, who used to what to shoot them, unless it's a Republican running for national office.

The percentage will be massive. Even if Jones somehow pulled off a miracle and won, it would be due to massive margins among non evangelicals.

[The Other Castro]

Yeah, I now think this will be a LA-GOV 2015 redux. People (especially Republicans, but some "concerned" Democrats as well) will ignore the polls because "the state is just too red", but in the end the Democrat wins by a surprisingly wide margin. Jones +8-12 would be my guess for now, his support among White women is going to collapse bigly.

Quoting so you can't deny this later

Wulf, I strongly advise against comparing your record of accurate predictions against Treasurer's.

It is abundantly clear that MT is leagues ahead of Wulfric in terms of analysis, though that's admittedly a pretty low bar.

[Virginiá]

I honestly do not see why Mitch wouldn't expel Moore if he won. He is a massive stain on the GOP brand and the kind of Senator who is prone to grandstanding and general disruption. He's just not reliable and is a drag on their party. More importantly though, booting him out of the Senate wouldn't be painful. Alabama is not going to rebel in any electorally significant way, if at all.

[Anna Komnene]

I honestly do not see why Mitch wouldn't expel Moore if he won. He is a massive stain on the GOP brand and the kind of Senator who is prone to grandstanding and general disruption. He's just not reliable and is a drag on their party. More importantly though, booting him out of the Senate wouldn't be painful. Alabama is not going to rebel in any electorally significant way, if at all.

I don't know. You don't think those Moore supporters in Alabama would be pissed about the Senate telling them you know what, no thanks on your candidate? I think they would be. I'm not sure what they could do, but I guess they could make life difficult for the "establishment."

[Virginiá]

I honestly do not see why Mitch wouldn't expel Moore if he won. He is a massive stain on the GOP brand and the kind of Senator who is prone to grandstanding and general disruption. He's just not reliable and is a drag on their party. More importantly though, booting him out of the Senate wouldn't be painful. Alabama is not going to rebel in any electorally significant way, if at all.

I don't know. You don't think those Moore supporters in Alabama would be pissed about the Senate telling them you know what, no thanks on your candidate? I think they would be. I'm not sure what they could do, but I guess they could make life difficult for the "establishment."

Well I do think a lot of diehard Moore supporters would be pissed, but Alabama is so polarized and deeply Republican that it can absorb a lot of temporary partisan rebellion. However for as mad as they might get, I just don't think most of them would try to take that out on the party by voting for a Democrat, because, well, Democrats are EVIL BABY KILLING SATAN WORSHIPPERS!

[Anna Komnene]

I honestly do not see why Mitch wouldn't expel Moore if he won. He is a massive stain on the GOP brand and the kind of Senator who is prone to grandstanding and general disruption. He's just not reliable and is a drag on their party. More importantly though, booting him out of the Senate wouldn't be painful. Alabama is not going to rebel in any electorally significant way, if at all.

I don't know. You don't think those Moore supporters in Alabama would be pissed about the Senate telling them you know what, no thanks on your candidate? I think they would be. I'm not sure what they could do, but I guess they could make life difficult for the "establishment."

Well I do think a lot of diehard Moore supporters would be pissed, but Alabama is so polarized and deeply Republican that it can absorb a lot of temporary partisan rebellion. However for as mad as they might get, I just don't think most of them would try to take that out on the party by voting for a Democrat, because, well, Democrats are EVIL BABY KILLING SATAN WORSHIPPERS!

Maybe not but they could primary Republican incumbents or rebel with write-in campaigns like they did with Martha Roby last year and knocked her under 50% of the vote. That could have sent a democrat to Washington if enough people did it.

[mvd10]

In that case they would have voted for the pedo to prevent a Democrat from winning. It would be very sad if they then voted for a Democrat to punish the GOP for kicking the pedo out, but it would show their true loyalties.

[Skye]

So far we've only had 3 polls with wide differences in their results, so it'd be best if we waited for more polls that show how Alabama has reacted to the allegations and the calls to drop out.

[Tartarus Sauce]

I honestly do not see why Mitch wouldn't expel Moore if he won. He is a massive stain on the GOP brand and the kind of Senator who is prone to grandstanding and general disruption. He's just not reliable and is a drag on their party. More importantly though, booting him out of the Senate wouldn't be painful. Alabama is not going to rebel in any electorally significant way, if at all.

I don't know. You don't think those Moore supporters in Alabama would be pissed about the Senate telling them you know what, no thanks on your candidate? I think they would be. I'm not sure what they could do, but I guess they could make life difficult for the "establishment."

Well I do think a lot of diehard Moore supporters would be pissed, but Alabama is so polarized and deeply Republican that it can absorb a lot of temporary partisan rebellion. However for as mad as they might get, I just don't think most of them would try to take that out on the party by voting for a Democrat, because, well, Democrats are EVIL BABY KILLING SATAN WORSHIPPERS!

We're evil baby killing satan worshippers and proud of it!

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Iirc after Akin Akin'd himself the polls for the first couple weeks still had it close (some with Akin still ahead well into October!) before Claire comfortably pulled ahead, then she still overperformed. Of course AL is less elastic so Doug prob won't end up winning by 14 like McCasskill, but this still might take a little bit to really sink in with voters. AL is less elastic than Missouri and 2012 was a different partisan environment, so Doug prob won't win by 14, but I do believe at the end of the day a majority of Alabamians, however slim, are not willing to pull the lever for a pedo.

[Mr. Morden]

I honestly do not see why Mitch wouldn't expel Moore if he won. He is a massive stain on the GOP brand and the kind of Senator who is prone to grandstanding and general disruption. He's just not reliable and is a drag on their party. More importantly though, booting him out of the Senate wouldn't be painful. Alabama is not going to rebel in any electorally significant way, if at all.

I don't know. You don't think those Moore supporters in Alabama would be pissed about the Senate telling them you know what, no thanks on your candidate? I think they would be. I'm not sure what they could do, but I guess they could make life difficult for the "establishment."

Well I do think a lot of diehard Moore supporters would be pissed, but Alabama is so polarized and deeply Republican that it can absorb a lot of temporary partisan rebellion. However for as mad as they might get, I just don't think most of them would try to take that out on the party by voting for a Democrat, because, well, Democrats are EVIL BABY KILLING SATAN WORSHIPPERS!

Maybe not but they could primary Republican incumbents or rebel with write-in campaigns like they did with Martha Roby last year and knocked her under 50% of the vote. That could have sent a democrat to Washington if enough people did it.

I highly doubt that's going to happen.  And furthermore, other than Shelby, the Republican Senators making the decision aren't from Alabama, so they're not going to be thinking about longshot scenarios like that.  A Roy Blunt or a Tim Scott or whoever cares about Republican voters in their own states, not Republican voters in Alabama.  No one in Missouri is going to abandon Blunt if he votes to expel Moore.  A year from now, his voters won't even remember who Moore is.  Thus, he is free to vote to expel Moore and avoid a situation where Moore is sticking around in the Senate, embarrassing his party on a daily basis.

[Santander]

We're evil baby killing satan worshippers and proud of it!

I'm glad that some Democrats are finally embracing this fact. You should never apologize for your views. It's been very liberating for me to embrace the labels people throw at me. (I don't need to list them here, you all know them)

[McGovernForPrez]

Reminder to the pessimists: Moore could barely win statewide with Obama on the ballot.

Obviously it's a different scenario but it still shows that Moore wasn't very strong to begin with.

[IceSpear]

Reminder to the pessimists: Moore could barely win statewide with Obama on the ballot.

Obviously it's a different scenario but it still shows that Moore wasn't very strong to begin with.

We already know he's not very strong. He's probably the weakest possible candidate Republicans have. That's why he was "only" going to win by 15-20 points before the allegations, and why he might only win by single digits now. But he's still going to win.

2012 was a different time, Trump changed the game. Also, the court race was not as partisan or nationalized as the Senate race is.

[McGovernForPrez]

Reminder to the pessimists: Moore could barely win statewide with Obama on the ballot.

Obviously it's a different scenario but it still shows that Moore wasn't very strong to begin with.

We already know he's not very strong. He's probably the weakest possible candidate Republicans have. That's why he was "only" going to win by 15-20 points before the allegations, and why he might only win by single digits now. But he's still going to win.

2012 was a different time, Trump changed the game. Also, the court race was not as partisan or nationalized as the Senate race is.

Polls showed about 10 point race before the allegations so I don't know what you're talking about. Also 20 points is the standard number for statewide R's.

Obviously it's a different time but Trump certainly didn't completely rewrite the rules of politics. I understand why Dems are pessimistic about this race given Trump's victory but it's still silly to be this pessimistic.