Alabama Megathread 2: Thou Shall Not Touch Teenage Girls

[McGovernForPrez]

Not even conservative media is willing to defend Moore. Not looking good for his election chances.

[IceSpear]

538's discussion of various possible outcomes of this race

(Short take: they're all bad for the GOP, but some of them are worse than others.)

I definitely think they should just chalk it up as a loss and reclaim it in 2020. Moore winning will probably hurt them even more in the midterms. Nationally 2/3s want him to drop out lol.

It doesn't really matter what national Republicans do or don't "write off", since the decision is in the very capable hands of Alabama voters. (lol)

Probably the best scenario for them politically speaking is Moore winning, expelling him, then getting a new placeholder and special election.

[Hydera]

Not even conservative media is willing to defend Moore. Not looking good for his election chances.

This is going to be a battle of how much hardline republicans moore can turn out even if conservative media is turning on him and i bet theres a lot of these voters.

[McGovernForPrez]

Apparently McConnell wants Sessions to run a write-in campaign.

[Santander]

Apparently McConnell wants Sessions to run a write-in campaign.

Good luck with that.

[Santander]

Apparently McConnell wants Sessions to run a write-in campaign.

Good luck with that.

Why is that so unlikely? Just because Sessions would have to take a risk by stepping down as AG first?

Yeah, while Sessions has not had the best of tenures as AG so far, I see nothing that says he would consider stepping down for a write-in campaign where he would split the vote and be a definite underdog. No rumors of him considering quitting on Cloakroom or the likes, either.

[RINO Tom]

#Pedophiles4Moore

Wonder if that will be an exit poll category.

[Mr. Morden]

Apparently McConnell wants Sessions to run a write-in campaign.

Good luck with that.

Why is that so unlikely? Just because Sessions would have to take a risk by stepping down as AG first?

Yeah, while Sessions has not had the best of tenures as AG so far, I see nothing that says he would consider stepping down for a write-in campaign where he would split the vote and be a definite underdog. No rumors of him considering quitting on Cloakroom or the likes, either.

What if Trump straight up fires him on the pretense that Sessions is the only candidate who can win a write in campaign in Alabama?  

[Pyro]

#Pedophiles4Moore

Wonder if that will be an exit poll category.

Chris Hansen will be on call for it.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Is it confirmed that we're actually getting an exit poll?

[Hindsight was 2020]

Holy sh.... https://www.politico.com/story/2017/11/15/roy-moore-doug-jones-poll-244937

[GeorgiaModerate]

Holy sh.... https://www.politico.com/story/2017/11/15/roy-moore-doug-jones-poll-244937

The NRSC is not exactly an unbiased observer here.  Huge if true, but I'll wait to see if there are similar results from other pollsters.

[Gass3268]

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[QAnonKelly]

This is why you run someone everywhere. You may not win them all but you never know what will happen and you can’t win if you don’t try.

[GeorgiaModerate]

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Interestingly, Kyle Kondik said they were already making this move even before the NRSC poll came out.

[McGovernForPrez]

Lol I'm moving this from Lean R to Lean D at this point. Obviously the new poll has a narrative but it doesn't matter. Moore has been abandoned by the media, and the RNC. There have been 2 polls showing Jones up and one showing it tied. This will likely spiral out of Moore's control.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Yea this is looking much more like a 2012 Akin situation, where a story takes a while to fully take hold in the minds of the voters and gets worse over time.

[The Other Castro]

Lol I'm moving this from Lean R to Lean D at this point. Obviously the new poll has a narrative but it doesn't matter. Moore has been abandoned by the media, and the RNC. There have been 2 polls showing Jones up and one showing it tied. This will likely spiral out of Moore's control.

Errr I’ve had this as a tossup since right when the first WaPo article came out, but I don’t know if anything could happen to make this race Lean D in my mind. For me, it’s the great amount of uncertainty that makes this a tossup, and any more factors thrown in just make it more of an uncertain race.

[Hydera]

Yea this is looking much more like a 2012 Akin situation, where a story takes a while to fully take hold in the minds of the voters and gets worse over time.

You also have a problem of if too much time passes then eventually voters will start forgetting it happened.

4 weeks is probably two political cycles already.

[Devout Centrist]

Yea this is looking much more like a 2012 Akin situation, where a story takes a while to fully take hold in the minds of the voters and gets worse over time.

You also have a problem of if too much time passes then eventually voters will start forgetting it happened.

4 weeks is probably two political cycles already.

True, but Moore seems content to bring up what he (ALLEGEDLY) did quite often

[The Govanah Jake]

This is getting really bad for Moore. I agree with the fact that this looks a lot like 2012 Akin type situation. Moving this from lean R to tossup.

[Holmes]

I don't doubt the NRSC poll at all, but there must be some motive behind it. Why else would they release an internal with their ca didate down double digits? To push Moore out? Even so, he can't be replaced on the ballot, and they also added that the results with Sessions as a write-ins are bad, so... very weird.

Maybe they do just want him to lose. They take the L and are favored in 2020.

[SteveRogers]

This is why you run someone everywhere. You may not win them all but you never know what will happen and you can’t win if you don’t try.

Exactly. This is precisely the attitude I've always advocated here in Texas.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I don't doubt the NRSC poll at all, but there must be some motive behind it. Why else would they release an internal with their ca didate down double digits? To push Moore out? Even so, he can't be replaced on the ballot, and they also added that the results with Sessions as a write-ins are bad, so... very weird.

Maybe they do just want him to lose. They take the L and are favored in 2020.

I think this would be the best (as in least bad) outcome for them.

[I’m not Stu]

I don't doubt the NRSC poll at all, but there must be some motive behind it. Why else would they release an internal with their ca didate down double digits? To push Moore out? Even so, he can't be replaced on the ballot, and they also added that the results with Sessions as a write-ins are bad, so... very weird.

Maybe they do just want him to lose. They take the L and are favored in 2020.

The NRSC wants an independent conservative to run and win.