Alabama Megathread 2: Thou Shall Not Touch Teenage Girls

[IceSpear]

I bet the NRSC poll was a push poll...that's why they just leaked the numbers to Politico and aren't providing any more details on how the questions were worded.

Why would they also say a Sessions write-in would do poorly too?

To give it the impression of credibility. Write-In candidates are a long shot in a three-way race too. Moore was probably going to beat Jones 65-35 before the scandal broke. He'd have to bleed 15+ points of support to lose.

Lol, even I doubt it would've been that big. That's the typical R margin in Alabama and Moore always underperforms.

[Santander]

Never back down, never apologize, never show weakness.

[Devout Centrist]

THEY HAVE A HANDWRITING EXPERT LOOKING AT THE NOTE HE WROTE XD

[The Other Castro]

Ivanka Trump: “There’s a special place in hell for people who prey on children. I’ve yet to see a valid explanation and I have no reason to doubt the victims’ accounts.”

https://twitter.com/TomLlamasABC/status/930911274321444864

[Devout Centrist]

So, basically, the evidence that his accuser made this up:

-She said she never saw Moore after her assault, but she had to get a divorce at the court where Moore was a judge (LOL)

-HANDWRITING EXPERT IS BEING CALLED IN

-(((MEDIA CONSPIRACY)))

[IceSpear]

THEY HAVE A HANDWRITING EXPERT LOOKING AT THE NOTE HE WROTE XD

Wow, Moore must have taken Hannity's ultimatum seriously. I knew that would have some pull.

[Santander]

You should see the comments on RSBN's stream.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

You should see the comments on RSBN's stream.

How about no.

[Santander]

They literally handed out one of the accuser's divorce papers at the press conference with grins on their faces.

[Santander]

I'm glad I don't identify as a Republican, despite sharing their deplorable political views.

[Devout Centrist]

I have never seen a sex abuse scandal handled this badly. Holy sh*t.

[rafta_rafta]

Did someone say Handwriting analyst?

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/290891469051555840

[TheSaint250]

Sabato's Crystal has moved AL from Likely R all the way to Leans D.

They'll probably explain their reasoning tomorrow with the usual weekly analysis, but I assume they have good reason to believe Jones is now favored.

Not to derail this, but just wanted to say:

A. While I would keep the race at tossup for the moment, I don't blame them for taking a risky chance and calling the race already. It will most likely be Moore losing anyway.

B. I think they are overestimating Rick Scott's gains as a result of Irma, but who knows? He's won close races before (2018 shaping up to be a D wave year won't help, though).

C. Why is Tennessee not safe R?

[Mr. Morden]

Has the latest accusation been mentioned in this thread yet?

http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2017/11/new_roy_moore_accuser_he_didnt.html

[Santander]

C. Why is Tennessee not safe R?

Because Republicans are scum, and this has only put their hypocrisy in plain view once again even for those who don't follow politics. Plus, a nut like Blackburn could very go down Moore-style.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Sabato's Crystal has moved AL from Likely R all the way to Leans D.

They'll probably explain their reasoning tomorrow with the usual weekly analysis, but I assume they have good reason to believe Jones is now favored.

Not to derail this, but just wanted to say:

A. While I would keep the race at tossup for the moment, I don't blame them for taking a risky chance and calling the race already. It will most likely be Moore losing anyway.

B. I think they are overestimating Rick Scott's gains as a result of Irma, but who knows? He's won close races before (2018 shaping up to be a D wave year won't help, though).

C. Why is Tennessee not safe R?

Because Tennesse almost voted for a black man with a white wife. Just take that in for a moment.

[Santander]

Because Tennesse almost voted for a black man with a white wife. Just take that in for a moment.

Harold Ford Jr. lost because he had a white wife.

[Oryxslayer]

Sabato's Crystal has moved AL from Likely R all the way to Leans D.

They'll probably explain their reasoning tomorrow with the usual weekly analysis, but I assume they have good reason to believe Jones is now favored.

Not to derail this, but just wanted to say:

A. While I would keep the race at tossup for the moment, I don't blame them for taking a risky chance and calling the race already. It will most likely be Moore losing anyway.

B. I think they are overestimating Rick Scott's gains as a result of Irma, but who knows? He's won close races before (2018 shaping up to be a D wave year won't help, though).

C. Why is Tennessee not safe R?

Sabato tend to be very liberal in their analysis (small l) especially compared to Cook, meaning they are more open to changes in ratings. Sabato during a campaign will not be afraid to move their ratings a lot, while Cook tends to only want to do it infrequently unless something big happens. Sabato also tries to identify the way a race may be going, whereas Cook tends to just reflect the race right now. Sabato, for example, loves to hold seats at Likely in order to signify that they might be competitive in the future. Finally unlike most other projectors, Sabato isn't afraid to project a race as a flip, whereas Cook, DDHQ, and others tend to need at least some convincing to push  a race for the non-incumbent side.

Strangely, their VA HoD projections were almost entirely counter to the above - the were the most conservative (small c) of the projectors. I chalk this up to less information of the on-the-ground situation.

[TheSaint250]

Sabato's Crystal has moved AL from Likely R all the way to Leans D.

They'll probably explain their reasoning tomorrow with the usual weekly analysis, but I assume they have good reason to believe Jones is now favored.

Not to derail this, but just wanted to say:

A. While I would keep the race at tossup for the moment, I don't blame them for taking a risky chance and calling the race already. It will most likely be Moore losing anyway.

B. I think they are overestimating Rick Scott's gains as a result of Irma, but who knows? He's won close races before (2018 shaping up to be a D wave year won't help, though).

C. Why is Tennessee not safe R?

Sabato tend to be very liberal in their analysis (small l) especially compared to Cook, meaning they are more open to changes in ratings. Sabato during a campaign will not be afraid to move their ratings a lot, while Cook tends to only want to do it infrequently unless something big happens. Sabato also tries to identify the way a race may be going, whereas Cook tends to just reflect the race right now. Sabato, for example, loves to hold seats at Likely in order to signify that they might be competitive in the future. Finally unlike most other projectors, Sabato isn't afraid to project a race as a flip, whereas Cook, DDHQ, and others tend to need at least some convincing to push  a race for the non-incumbent side.

Strangely, their VA HoD projections were almost entirely counter to the above - the were the most conservative (small c) of the projectors. I chalk this up to less information of the on-the-ground situation.

Ah ok thanks!

[Landslide Lyndon]

Has the latest accusation been mentioned in this thread yet?

http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2017/11/new_roy_moore_accuser_he_didnt.html

At least this time he harassed an adult woman, so I guess that's progress.

[Arkansas Yankee]

The school yearbook better be turned over for independent handwriting analysis.  Everyone is entitled to due process, even Roy Moore.

[Hydera]

The school yearbook better be turned over for independent handwriting analysis.  Everyone is entitled to due process, even Roy Moore.

Go back to 4chan.


Also moore than likely that whichever goons that moore sends will just deface the evidence if their allowed to even touch it.

[DrScholl]

The school yearbook better be turned over for independent handwriting analysis.  Everyone is entitled to due process, even Roy Moore.

There is no legal action being taken here, so "due process" doesn't apply.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I listened to the "press conference" (can it be called that if they don't take any questions from the press?) on WSB radio in Atlanta.  After it concluded, they went into Eric Erickson's talk show.  He was practically ROFL at how bad it was.

[Cactus Jack]

Can Mueller please send an investigative detachment to Alabama to string up Moore's kiddy-fiddling hide?