Alabama Megathread 2: Thou Shall Not Touch Teenage Girls

[DrScholl]

Did you guys not read it?
He said that it said D.A when he was not a DA.
I do believe it’s BS That yearbook is probably a fake,

With all that being said while I want/support Moore he should drop out I don’t want to lose a safe senate seat!

Maybe.

Maybe he was lying to impress those girls so that he could impress them.

Absolutely. Lying using two different pens and a bogus looking signiture

Signature, not signiture. If you are going to peddle trash, at least learn how to spell.

[Kamala]

Well, it's in meme format, so it must be true. *shrug*

[GeorgiaModerate]

Apologies if this has already been posted, but the thread is moving so fast it's hard to keep up. 

Ivanka Trump on Moore:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Crumpets]

If you look at the picture, though, the color seems to change between the names "Roy" and "Moore," so if it wasn't Moore, it would have had to have been another Roy with almost identical handwriting who originally signed the yearbook, and had the last name filled in later.

Here's a higher-res picture for reference: https://www.peoplespunditdaily.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Beverly-Young-Nelson-Roy-Moore-Yearbook.jpg

And yeah, I don't have any problem with subjecting it to handwriting analysis. The yearbook is the least of Moore's concerns right now anyway.

[Maxwell]

#Pedophiles4Moore

I endorse Judge Moore because he's been a fighter his whole life. when he goes to Washington, he will defend our values!

- Jared Fogle

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Did you guys not read it?
He said that it said D.A when he was not a DA.
I do believe it’s BS That yearbook is probably a fake,

With all that being said while I want/support Moore he should drop out I don’t want to lose a safe senate seat!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2k0SmqbBIpQ

You need to grow up. Once you get out of your parents bubble you will better understand the world.

Until then women won't let you put your weewee next to their teehee.

[pppolitics]

The number just keeps going up.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/two-more-women-describe-unwanted-overtures-by-roy-moore-at-alabama-mall/2017/11/15/2a1da432-ca24-11e7-b0cf-7689a9f2d84e_story.html?utm_term=.c7615e78a330

[GeorgiaModerate]

If Jones wins this, will it be the worst case in modern times of a party blowing a safe Senate election?

[Cactus Jack]

If Jones wins this, will it be the worst case in modern times of a party blowing a safe Senate election?

Certainly worse than Coakley 2010, if just thanks to the circumstances.

[Babeuf]

It takes an amazingly conspiratorial mind to believe that ALL these women must be lying.

[DrScholl]

The steering committee meeting of the Alabama GOP is over and apparently the members avoided the media by sneaking out through a hidden door.

[pppolitics]

If Jones wins this, will it be the worst case in modern times of a party blowing a safe Senate election?

It's probably right up there along with Rod Blagojevich attempting to sell Obama's seat.

[Virginiá]

It takes an amazingly conspiratorial mind to believe that ALL these women must be lying.

Not necessarily. Being a partisan hack would do.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Moore's lawyer, Trenton Garmon, has quite the history.  He was disbarred by the Alabama Bar Association in 2014.  The reason:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The Alabama Lawyer, September 2014 (page 339, the rightmost column)

Edit: if that link doesn't work for you try this (where I first saw it): https://twitter.com/grantstern/status/930951901348319232

[Babeuf]

It takes an amazingly conspiratorial mind to believe that ALL these women must be lying.

Not necessarily. Being a partisan hack would do.

True enough. Either way, it's incredibly depressing to see in action.

[Maxwell]

Moore's lawyer, Trenton Garmon, has quite the history.  He was disbarred by the Alabama Bar Association in 2014.  The reason:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The Alabama Lawyer, September 2014 (page 339, the rightmost column)

Edit: if that link doesn't work for you try this (where I first saw it): https://twitter.com/grantstern/status/930951901348319232

oh god oh man looks like this guys gonna get a judgeship in the trump administration.

[Brittain33]

Incredibly fun fact:

The executive director of the NRSC, which put out that poll to push Moore out of the race, is named Chris Hansen.

[Yank2133]

The number just keeps going up.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/two-more-women-describe-unwanted-overtures-by-roy-moore-at-alabama-mall/2017/11/15/2a1da432-ca24-11e7-b0cf-7689a9f2d84e_story.html?utm_term=.c7615e78a330

Jesus.

[Nichlemn]

Nate Silver: Would Republicans Be Better Off If The Democrat Won In Alabama?

I don't buy this angle at all. To be sure, Republicans wouldn't exactly be thrilled to have the PR of Roy Moore being elected. But I think the notion that it's going to be some big albatross around the neck of Republicans in different states nearly a year later? Nah. They'll distance themselves from him, probably make some token effort to expel him, then quietly drop the issue once the furore dies down.

I mean, Nate notes the obvious example of Trump's allegations being rarely discussed today at the end of the article. But even Trump is the President! He's a major figure for everyone. Is there any precedent for people voting differently because of scandals from politicians from other states? Nate cites the Mark Foley scandal, but that was unusual in being uncovered just weeks before the midterms. Did swing voters in OH care that Democrats didn't expel IL Sen. Roland Burris, appointed by corrupt then-Gov Blagojevich? Were swing voters in NH influenced by TN Rep's Scott DesJarlais' affair and hypocrisy?

I feel like this is a "beltway pundit's contrarian hot-take" that Nate would usually be keen to dismiss.

[Yank2133]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Disagree

The Foley stuff from 2006 had an impact on the mid-terms.

[TomC]

Because Tennesse almost voted for a black man with a white wife. Just take that in for a moment.

Harold Ford Jr. lost because he had a white wife.

Ford was not married in 2006. He married a woman who is white in 2008 after he'd left TN. During the 2006 senate race,  Republicans ran an ad suggesting he'd picked up a white woman at a playboy mansion party. "Call me" she said at the end of the ad.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=24rM3--lIv8

[Virginiá]

GOP leaders weigh drastic plan to save Alabama Senate seat

https://www.politico.com/story/2017/11/15/roy-moore-republicans-alabama-senate-244961

You must be logged in to read this quote.

(Relevant ELB post on this: http://electionlawblog.org/?p=96022)


Republicans mulling another highly likely unconstitutional action to try and hold the seat. At some point these guys are going to need to accept that the only choice is to let the election play out, see where the chips fall, and go from there. If they think Alabama's two Senate seats permanently belong to Republicans, maybe they should try and get a constitutional amendment passed to state that

[Kamala]

Wouldn't Strange resigning just let Ivey appoint an even lamer duck until the special election?

[Mr. Morden]

Nate Silver: Would Republicans Be Better Off If The Democrat Won In Alabama?

I don't buy this angle at all. To be sure, Republicans wouldn't exactly be thrilled to have the PR of Roy Moore being elected. But I think the notion that it's going to be some big albatross around the neck of Republicans in different states nearly a year later? Nah. They'll distance themselves from him, probably make some token effort to expel him, then quietly drop the issue once the furore dies down.

I mean, Nate notes the obvious example of Trump's allegations being rarely discussed today at the end of the article. But even Trump is the President! He's a major figure for everyone. Is there any precedent for people voting differently because of scandals from politicians from other states? Nate cites the Mark Foley scandal, but that was unusual in being uncovered just weeks before the midterms. Did swing voters in OH care that Democrats didn't expel IL Sen. Roland Burris, appointed by corrupt then-Gov Blagojevich? Were swing voters in NH influenced by TN Rep's Scott DesJarlais' affair and hypocrisy?

I feel like this is a "beltway pundit's contrarian hot-take" that Nate would usually be keen to dismiss.

The reason why I think it might not just be a "token" effort to expel him, but perhaps an effort that actually succeeds, is because Moore has problems beyond the harassment accusations.  He's liable to be making controversial statements about all manner of topics every other week for as long as he's in the Senate, in a way that'll prompt journalists to keep asking other Republican Senators if they agree with him on this or that, which they'd rather avoid.  I imagine many of them were hoping that Moore could somehow go away before the sexual harassment claims came out, and this may just give them an excuse to get rid of him.

[Virginiá]

Wouldn't Strange resigning just let Ivey appoint an even lamer duck until the special election?

Yes, I think so. Republicans are mulling whether to argue that Strange resigning is the same as Sessions resigning, in terms of vacancy rules. That's quite a stretch, and stinks of desperation.