Alabama Megathread 2: Thou Shall Not Touch Teenage Girls

[IceSpear]

Why are so many people acting as if Jones has this in the bag? Everybody is thinking about their own decency and forgetting about Alabama's.

You just answered your own question.

[IceSpear]

Moore is surging back up on PredictIt. Once the initial shock of new revelations wears off, everyone then remembers it's still Alabama.

[IceSpear]

EnglishPete would happily watch his own daughter get raped as long as the rapist was white. Just put him on ignore guys.

You forgot they need to be a Republican too.

[IceSpear]

Moore is back ahead on PredictIt. He's going to win.

[IceSpear]

Moore is back ahead on PredictIt. He's going to win.

Is this post sarcastic?

I mean, he is going to win. PredictIt is just a lagging indicator.

[IceSpear]

I feel like to many people are going "lol it's Alabama". Yeah it's Alabama but this scandal only seems to be deepening. It's likely that Moore ends up being more of an Akin than a Trump. The fact that even Breitbart is abandoning him pretty much proves that he's toast.

1) Akin would've won in Alabama.

2) Akin might even have won a 2018 rematch in Missouri. At the very least he'd make it a single digit race. Times have changed.

3) Moore still leads in most of the polls.

There's nothing to suggest a Jones victory except cherry picking polls or having unearned faith in Alabama voters.

[IceSpear]

I feel like to many people are going "lol it's Alabama". Yeah it's Alabama but this scandal only seems to be deepening. It's likely that Moore ends up being more of an Akin than a Trump. The fact that even Breitbart is abandoning him pretty much proves that he's toast.

1) Akin would've won in Alabama.

2) Akin might even have won a 2018 rematch in Missouri. At the very least he'd make it a single digit race. Times have changed.

3) Moore still leads in most of the polls.

There's nothing to suggest a Jones victory except cherry picking polls or having unearned faith in Alabama voters.

I think your faith in voters is far too low. Sure Akin would have won Alabama but Moore's controversy is far worse than Akin's. Alabama is a really lame state with a lot of very "deplorable" voters, but I think the votes are easily out there. Almost all the polls do show a massive swing towards Jones. The race was already a high single digits race before the controversy. Even outlier polls like Emerson have shown a massive shift.

Massive swings don't make a difference though if he's still ahead. Moore still becomes a Senator (at least for days/weeks) whether he wins by 2 points or 20 points.

Roy Moore is apparently not popular with voters nationally.

Luckily for him, only the opinions of Alabama voters matter.

[IceSpear]

Curious to see what percent of good Christian Alabamans support pedophilia, who used to what to shoot them, unless it's a Republican running for national office.

The percentage will be massive. Even if Jones somehow pulled off a miracle and won, it would be due to massive margins among non evangelicals.

[IceSpear]

Reminder to the pessimists: Moore could barely win statewide with Obama on the ballot.

Obviously it's a different scenario but it still shows that Moore wasn't very strong to begin with.

We already know he's not very strong. He's probably the weakest possible candidate Republicans have. That's why he was "only" going to win by 15-20 points before the allegations, and why he might only win by single digits now. But he's still going to win.

2012 was a different time, Trump changed the game. Also, the court race was not as partisan or nationalized as the Senate race is.

[IceSpear]

Reminder to the pessimists: Moore could barely win statewide with Obama on the ballot.

Obviously it's a different scenario but it still shows that Moore wasn't very strong to begin with.

We already know he's not very strong. He's probably the weakest possible candidate Republicans have. That's why he was "only" going to win by 15-20 points before the allegations, and why he might only win by single digits now. But he's still going to win.

2012 was a different time, Trump changed the game. Also, the court race was not as partisan or nationalized as the Senate race is.

Polls showed about 10 point race before the allegations so I don't know what you're talking about. Also 20 points is the standard number for statewide R's.

Obviously it's a different time but Trump certainly didn't completely rewrite the rules of politics. I understand why Dems are pessimistic about this race given Trump's victory but it's still silly to be this pessimistic.

He was going to outperform the polls because all the "undecideds" were Moore supporters. That's still possible, though I'm less sure of it now. Trump, Bentley, and Shelby all won by ~30 points.

I'm not pessimistic because of Trump's victory, I'm pessimistic because it's Alabama. Even if Hillary won in a landslide I'd be saying the same thing. And there's no reason for a Democrat NOT to be pessimistic about an Alabama election.

[IceSpear]

I think IceSpear wants Moore to win for whatever bizarre reason.

Some of you guys really need to learn the difference between wanting something to happen and knowing it will. I wanted Hillary to win Texas, but I knew she wouldn't. I want to hit the lottery, but I know I won't.

[IceSpear]

I think IceSpear wants Moore to win for whatever bizarre reason.

I wanted Hillary to win Texas, but I knew she wouldn't.

Do I really need to tell you why these situations aren't analogous

You're right. Hillary probably had a better chance at winning Texas than Jones does of beating Moore.

And I don't know if you're implying that was a fringe thought or not, but Hillary winning Texas was a constant circlejerk here in 2016, particularly during her polling bounces. I was arguing against it all the time and was called a "concern troll" for it. Sound familiar? In fact, I was probably arguing about it with some of the same people that are now arguing Jones is going to win...also, did Atlas not overwhelmingly think Ossoff and Quist were going to win too?

[IceSpear]

I think IceSpear wants Moore to win for whatever bizarre reason.

I wanted Hillary to win Texas, but I knew she wouldn't.

Do I really need to tell you why these situations aren't analogous

You're right. Hillary probably had a better chance at winning Texas than Jones does of beating Moore.

And I don't know if you're implying that was a fringe thought or not, but Hillary winning Texas was a constant circlejerk here in 2016, particularly during her polling bounces. I was arguing against it all the time and was called a "concern troll" for it. Sound familiar? In fact, I was probably arguing about it with some of the same people that are now arguing Jones is going to win...also, did Atlas not overwhelmingly think Ossoff and Quist were going to win too?

Delete your account.

To be fair, both were/are below a 1% chance. It's kind of splitting hairs.

And why would I do that when I have accolades to accept in a month?

[IceSpear]

I think IceSpear wants Moore to win for whatever bizarre reason.

I wanted Hillary to win Texas, but I knew she wouldn't.

Do I really need to tell you why these situations aren't analogous

You're right. Hillary probably had a better chance at winning Texas than Jones does of beating Moore.

And I don't know if you're implying that was a fringe thought or not, but Hillary winning Texas was a constant circlejerk here in 2016, particularly during her polling bounces. I was arguing against it all the time and was called a "concern troll" for it. Sound familiar? In fact, I was probably arguing about it with some of the same people that are now arguing Jones is going to win...also, did Atlas not overwhelmingly think Ossoff and Quist were going to win too?

I dunno, dude, there's nothing wrong with being excited about Dems having a shot at a senatorial seat from Alabama for the first time in over twenty years. Moore is still probably the favorite at this point, but who cares? Do you go to football games where your team is the underdog and mope for the entire game about how pointless it is?

Getting excited for a win when you're probably going to lose (or in this case, almost certainly going to lose) leads to Ossoff level meltdowns. I didn't really pay too much attention to that race, but figured Handel would win by a few points. It's a lot easier to view things from a clear and unbiased perspective when you're not emotionally invested.

I don't know what you mean by "who cares"? This entire forum is built upon election data and predictions. Obviously to some extent we all care. And you just said people were "excited" by the false hope of a Jones victory.

A better analogy would be telling my friend to stop wasting his money playing the lottery every day, rather than filling him with false hope and BS optimism about how "if you just keep trying, I'm sure you'll be rich someday! : o)"

[IceSpear]

I think IceSpear wants Moore to win for whatever bizarre reason.

I wanted Hillary to win Texas, but I knew she wouldn't.

Do I really need to tell you why these situations aren't analogous

You're right. Hillary probably had a better chance at winning Texas than Jones does of beating Moore.

And I don't know if you're implying that was a fringe thought or not, but Hillary winning Texas was a constant circlejerk here in 2016, particularly during her polling bounces. I was arguing against it all the time and was called a "concern troll" for it. Sound familiar? In fact, I was probably arguing about it with some of the same people that are now arguing Jones is going to win...also, did Atlas not overwhelmingly think Ossoff and Quist were going to win too?

I dunno, dude, there's nothing wrong with being excited about Dems having a shot at a senatorial seat from Alabama for the first time in over twenty years. Moore is still probably the favorite at this point, but who cares? Do you go to football games where your team is the underdog and mope for the entire game about how pointless it is?

Getting excited for a win when you're probably going to lose (or in this case, almost certainly going to lose) leads to Ossoff level meltdowns. I didn't really pay too much attention to that race, but figured Handel would win by a few points. It's a lot easier to view things from a clear and unbiased perspective when you're not emotionally invested.

I don't know what you mean by "who cares"? This entire forum is built upon election data and predictions. Obviously to some extent we all care. And you just said people were "excited" by the false hope of a Jones victory.

A better analogy would be telling my friend to stop wasting his money playing the lottery every day, rather than filling him with false hope and BS optimism about how "if you just keep trying, I'm sure you'll be rich someday! : o)"

That's a horrible analogy, unless you're actually putting money on this race. Does it cost anything to support Jones and hope he wins?

And it's not a binary option between resigning yourself to defeat and melting down if your side doesn't win - it's totally fine and normal to get swept up in the excitement while being able to accept a loss if it happens.

I'm not putting money down with my friend in that analogy either. I'm reminding him to be realistic, just as I'm doing here. Also, I actually do have some money on Moore with PredictIt.

I agree with that in principle. I was excited for Northam's probable victory even though I knew he could lose, and same for Hillary's (though obviously that one went the other way.) But this is Alabama and we're an elections forum. We should try to stay somewhat within the confines of reality considering this is a website based on data. Otherwise you jump down the rabbit hole of fantasizing about how Dems are going to win TX-13 in a landslide because if you dare suggest otherwise, you're a "concern troll" rooting against "your team."

[IceSpear]

I think IceSpear wants Moore to win for whatever bizarre reason.

I wanted Hillary to win Texas, but I knew she wouldn't.

Do I really need to tell you why these situations aren't analogous

You're right. Hillary probably had a better chance at winning Texas than Jones does of beating Moore.

You completely missed my point. Hillary spent miniscule amounts of time and money on Texas. It wasn't even a target. Now, there's a durable, albeit rather small, chance that Doug Jones can win and you're comparing this situation, in which a radical from the incumbent party is embroiled in a sexual abuse scandal, to Hillary winning Texas. Hm.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Wow, it's almost like this forum is bad at analysis. Wonder who that reminds me of. Here, on the other hand, is what a good pessimistic take looks like:

Why are so many people acting as if Jones has this in the bag? Everybody is thinking about their own decency and forgetting about Alabama's.

Anyway, I haven't seen much evidence of massive movement in aggregate polling where it counts, which is Jones' percentage of the vote. He was basically hovering between 42-44% prior to this; even if you include the garbage 1-day polls and polls from questionable pollsters (pretty much all we have), the past 7 or so polls put him at an average of 44%.

Moore's percentages have dropped; Jones have stayed the same. This is the classic recipe of a Southern election where supposedly-principled Republicans temporarily jump ship before flocking back by Election Day, along with all of the "independents" and "undecideds". If Jones isn't sitting at 50% in aggregate polling or ahead by 4-5 points consistently, he isn't going to win.

Uh...I've said his first line almost verbatim countless times. In fact, I was one of the first to say it when this story first broke. I've also said that same "undecideds" theory countless times. Pay better attention.

[IceSpear]

Uh...I've said his first line almost verbatim countless times. In fact, I was one of the first to say it when this story first broke. I've also said that same "undecideds" theory countless times. Pay better attention.

The fact you crib Adam's analysis and turn it into some bargain bin crap is not at issue here.

Your reading comprehension needs work. Kind of hard to "steal" his analysis when I reacted to it first.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=276867.0
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=262651.925

[IceSpear]

I think IceSpear should lay off the sheer amount of posts he makes about it. It’s the same thing over and over again, and it’s a bit annoying at this point. We get it, you don’t think the Democrats have a chance of winning. You don’t have to make 50 posts about it.

Yeah it's just miserable to hear the same thing over and over again without any real argument besides "Muh Alabama".

I mean, the real issue is that I'm disrupting the circlejerk. You guys have no problem with "Sen-elect Jones <333333" spam.

Also, Moore up 6 in the new poll. #Vindication

[IceSpear]

Actually, let's be honest: the forum would be better off if IceSpear just left. Has he contributed anything meaningful at all in the last month? Anything at all, beyond incessant bitching about West Virginia and Alabama?

This just makes me want to stay even more.

Also, didn't Virginia tell you to stop making the topic about my thoughts of these two states?

[IceSpear]

Icespear is annoying but if Moore still wins after all of this then is he really wrong?

Whether Moore wins or loses, IceSpear is always going to be an obnoxious twat. Put money on it.

Please stop making the topic your obsession with me. Are you trying to maintain your Alabama megathread post ratio of being 90% about me and 10% about the race itself? lol

Anyway, I can already see December 12th now...

"Wow, Alabama is a disgusting, depraved, morally bankrupt, pedophile supporting den of white trash hicks! IceSpear? Who's that?"

[IceSpear]

Icespear is annoying but if Moore still wins after all of this then is he really wrong?

Whether Moore wins or loses, IceSpear is always going to be an obnoxious twat. Put money on it.

Please stop making the topic your obsession with me. Are you trying to maintain your Alabama megathread post ratio of being 90% about me and 10% about the race itself? lol

Anyway, I can already see December 12th now...

"Wow, Alabama is a disgusting, depraved, morally bankrupt, pedophile supporting den of white trash hicks! IceSpear? Who's that?"

If Jones wins, will you quit your racist Hicks acting?

It's hardly even about hicks at this point. Alabama's problems go far beyond that. But yeah, if Jones beats Moore I'll obviously admit  I was wrong. With the caveat that I actually do think he'd have a chance if Sessions or someone jumped in as a write in.

[IceSpear]

Jones is the Democrat Scott Brown. The Democrats will win.

I didn't think it was possible for me to feel worse for Martha Coakley than I do, but being compared to Roy Moore must suck.

Poor Sluggish Martha doesn't deserve it. She was just a bit elitist and a lot lazy, not a sexually assaulting pedophile.

[IceSpear]

After Virginia, how can anyone here think that one poll vindicates their opinion?  Wait for the results before you claim victory, people.  If they prove you right, then you were right.

It's not just one though. Every poll but two has still shown Moore ahead.

[IceSpear]

I bet the Democrats regret not going with a candidate who was pro-life.  I bet there are enough voters like me in Alabama who are deeply disturbed by Moore's actions but would never vote for (what we view as) a baby killer.  If the Democrat were pro-life, I would have this at Likely D right now, but this seems to be a tossup.

That's what bothers me about "pro-lifers".  People are upset about "baby killers" but don't have a problem when the babies become teenagers and get molested??!!

Alabama, wherein the "lives" of zygotes and blastulas are more important than those of teenagers.

[IceSpear]

I bet the Democrats regret not going with a candidate who was pro-life.  I bet there are enough voters like me in Alabama who are deeply disturbed by Moore's actions but would never vote for (what we view as) a baby killer.  If the Democrat were pro-life, I would have this at Likely D right now, but this seems to be a tossup.

That's what bothers me about "pro-lifers".  People are upset about "baby killers" but don't have a problem when the babies become teenagers and get molested??!!

We do have a problem with it, but murder is obviously a worse crime than any sexual crime could ever be.

Moore would still have massive leads with evangelicals even if he literally murdered someone though.