Alabama Megathread 2: Thou Shall Not Touch Teenage Girls

[The Other Castro]

Yeah, I now think this will be a LA-GOV 2015 redux. People (especially Republicans, but some "concerned" Democrats as well) will ignore the polls because "the state is just too red", but in the end the Democrat wins by a surprisingly wide margin. Jones +8-12 would be my guess for now, his support among White women is going to collapse bigly.

Quoting so you can't deny this later

Wulf, I strongly advise against comparing your record of accurate predictions against Treasurer's.

It is abundantly clear that MT is leagues ahead of Wulfric in terms of analysis, though that's admittedly a pretty low bar.

[The Other Castro]

Sounds like somebody needs to review the tale of mypalfish.

[The Other Castro]

Lol I'm moving this from Lean R to Lean D at this point. Obviously the new poll has a narrative but it doesn't matter. Moore has been abandoned by the media, and the RNC. There have been 2 polls showing Jones up and one showing it tied. This will likely spiral out of Moore's control.

Errr I’ve had this as a tossup since right when the first WaPo article came out, but I don’t know if anything could happen to make this race Lean D in my mind. For me, it’s the great amount of uncertainty that makes this a tossup, and any more factors thrown in just make it more of an uncertain race.

[The Other Castro]

Ivanka Trump: “There’s a special place in hell for people who prey on children. I’ve yet to see a valid explanation and I have no reason to doubt the victims’ accounts.”

https://twitter.com/TomLlamasABC/status/930911274321444864

[The Other Castro]

Sounds like JMC is coming out with another poll soon.

https://mobile.twitter.com/von_levi/status/931534747012096000

[The Other Castro]

Gravis is also putting out a new AL poll today. Last poll was Moore +2.

[The Other Castro]

Breitbart has a story that Nance's stepson says she is a liar.

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2017/11/16/exclusive-stepson-of-roy-moore-accuser-accusations-one-hundred-percent-a-lie/

I know it is Breitbart.  But it is one more reason that the yearbook needs to be analyzed.

It seems the "different" ink color was only an optical illusion.
Picture from the conservative Washington Examiner. Same ink color.

[img snip]

Right. So you think that the one showing the inks to be different is the one that's an optical illusion? Try reading this thread and do try using your brain.

https://twitter.com/ThomasWictor/status/930879809919467520

Lol, if it was a forgery why on Earth would the forger use two different inks.

A forger would know that using two different inks would look so much like a forgery that nobody would ever believe a forger would be that dumb, and that it must therefore be real. So, in order to make it look more real, the forger used two different inks. If it looked real, everyone would think it was fake.

[The Other Castro]

I see they've gotten to Castro.

[The Other Castro]

New Strategy Research poll coming later today.

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/933051544295149575

[The Other Castro]

New Strategy Research poll coming later today.

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/933051544295149575

National poll, I hear, not AL-only. May help drive the narrative, but the numbers will be meaningless.

The Quinnipiac poll was national, this should be just AL.

[The Other Castro]

Alabama SoS says he is expecting lower turnout, revising his prediction from initially as high as 25% down to 18-20%.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/alabama-election-official-sees-lower-turnout-higher-write-vote-n822726

[The Other Castro]

I got bored on Amtrak home, had some wine, and let the great muse of politics bestow upon me her knowledge. She said:

Jones: 296,646: 49.69%
Moore: 281,570: 47.17%
Write-ins: 18,723: 3.14%

[The Other Castro]

Just got this sponsored ad on Facebook:



I assume he is talking about the JMC poll from 11/9-11/11.

[The Other Castro]

Moore's communications director resigns.

https://www.washingtonian.com/2017/11/22/john-rogers-roy-moore-communications-director-spokesman-resigns/

[The Other Castro]

[The Other Castro]

Two private GOP polls from mid-November have Jones leading.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/25/us/politics/trump-roy-moore-mcconnell-alabama-senate.html?_r=0&mtrref=t.co

[The Other Castro]

Just an interesting take I saw earlier:

Paul Kane‏ @pkcapitol
Moore might survive amid allegations of other lawmakers. But it's possible he loses convincingly & liberal elites never saw it coming because we assumed the worst about the South

https://twitter.com/pkcapitol/status/934965310603649024

[The Other Castro]

Gabriel Debenedetti‏ @gdebenedetti
If Doug Jones loses, money won’t be the reason: he brought in $2.9m online in October — BEFORE the Roy Moore accusations began, @PoliticoScott finds > http://politico.pro/2AhKqrh

https://twitter.com/gdebenedetti/status/935223202174914560

[The Other Castro]

Wow.

"A woman approached The Post with dramatic — and false — tale about Roy Moore. She appears to be part of undercover sting operation."

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/a-woman-approached-the-post-with-dramatic--and-false--tale-about-roy-moore-sje-appears-to-be-part-of-undercover-sting-operation/2017/11/27/0c2e335a-cfb6-11e7-9d3a-bcbe2af58c3a_story.html?utm_term=.e7b607878b31

[The Other Castro]

Gravis will be releasing a final, 5-day poll this week.

https://twitter.com/GravisMarketing/status/934832446285189120

[The Other Castro]

From the JMC pollster:

John Couvillon‏ @WinWithJMC
ALABAMA SENATE POLL: 7AM (tomorrow) Central release time. #ALSEN

This time, even one hint would give away the entire poll

Numbers unchanged on the question about alleged sexual misconduct - I recycled many of the questions that were on my last poll.

650 sample, field dates yesterday and today. 75-23% racial demographics.

I'll say there was "movement"

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/935686232566267904

[The Other Castro]

You guys still have two weeks of this, pace yourselves at least.

[The Other Castro]

Nobody thought Northam would win by 9 points.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=276155.msg5889394#msg5889394

[The Other Castro]

Josh Kraushaar @HotlineJosh
WaPo poll of #ALSEN: Jones 50, Moore 47.  Awfully consistent with the internals I've been hearing about.

https://mobile.twitter.com/hotlinejosh/status/936944294090477573

[The Other Castro]

When is that Gravis poll due?

Seems like they're pushing it to next week.