Alabama Megathread 2: Thou Shall Not Touch Teenage Girls

[Mr. Smith]

Most media endorsed Hillary too...and in Missouri, it went to Koster...

[Mr. Smith]

Most media endorsed Hillary too...and in Missouri, it went to Koster...

Doug Jones is not Hillary Clinton.

It's still a Deep Atlas Blue state and Jones still has a (D) next to his name, and nothing energizes the R vote like a chance to middle finger any old source of media.

[Mr. Smith]

Did something happen? No new polls? Is this just Atlas being Atlas?

Jones openly went pro-choice.

FTR, the feeling two weeks ago was that Gillespie, Orman/Kander/Ossoff was closing the gap and Northam Roberts/Blunt/Handel was "blowing it".

FTFY

And see how those turned out? Exactly.

No, all these allegations did was keep the race in single-digits, when it should've gone the way of Parker Griffifth.

And far as I can tell, Jones isn't pulling a JBE-esque campaign either.

[Mr. Smith]

Santander, the real you is showing.

He's not wrong about the effect though, and it'll be this whistling that throws Jones under in the end.

Moore's communications director resigns.

https://www.washingtonian.com/2017/11/22/john-rogers-roy-moore-communications-director-spokesman-resigns/

Remember how many campaign managers Trump went through, while Hillary just had Robby "I somehow got McAuliffe to nearly lose" Mook? Remember who won?

[Mr. Smith]

I love how Mook suddenly became an incompetent twit.
It wasn't that long ago when everybody congratulated him for taking a surefire loser like McAulliffe and electing him governor, and doing that by running an unabashedly liberal campaign in a purple state.

He [T-Mac] was only "surefire" at the time because everyone thought Bill Bolling was gonna be the guy. ANYONE should've been able to destroy Da' C*&ch. And sure enough, he was leading him bigly, pretty much all the way until the last few weeks.

Seems like 'round that time, that's when all the "Ken C*&nelli doesn't support abortion even in cases of rape or incest" starting popping up...and pretty much nothing else. I guess if abortion support is all that makes one "unabashedly liberal", then yes, you might be right.

Besides that and character assassination, there wasn't much else to go with.

Sure enough, the day came, no was excited because of the nature of it all [to date, this election is the only one I've sat out] and T-Mac clearly had it in the bag, so turnout was low, and lots of would-be Democrats went to the Libertarian...he proceeded to only win by 2 points.

YUGE LEAD? DROP DOWN TO ONLY TWO POINTS AGAINST A NUT-JOB? CHARACTER ASSASSINATION TACTICS OVER POLICY? SHOO-IN TO WIN?

Gee, that sounds familiar.  

Santander, the real you is showing.

He's not wrong about the effect though, and it'll be this whistling that throws Jones under in the end.

Moore's communications director resigns.

https://www.washingtonian.com/2017/11/22/john-rogers-roy-moore-communications-director-spokesman-resigns/

Remember how many campaign managers Trump went through, while Hillary just had Robby "I somehow got McAuliffe to nearly lose" Mook? Remember who won?

So the key to a winning campain is to fire your campaign staff.

If your old staff couldn't sell you for whatever reason, and the replacements end up being more ruthless and cutthroat...then yeah, it is possible.

Granted, it is improbable that lightning strikes twice and Moore gets a Kellyanne Conway...but it just isn't impossible anymore.

[Mr. Smith]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/935180930720915456

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Uh-oh

They won't need to, same way 1/4 of the GOP didn't need to endorse Trump.

[Mr. Smith]

I'm nervous about the JMC poll

If you accepted from the start that Moore is inevitable you wouldn't be.

A Kandering is much easier to lightning rod around than if Jones says Bayh Bayh.

[Mr. Smith]

The denial is still strong with some, but seems like most are finally coming to terms with this race. People deluded themselves because of Vitter/Edwards, but Alabama cannot really be compared with Louisiana. A Democrat was never going to win there.

To be fair with Vitter/Edwards, there was doubt for Edwards (including from yours truly) too...didn't help that Matt Bevin won just weeks before in Kentucky, which was technically more Democratic at the time.

Though it is true that Moore's campaign is eerily similar to Trump AND Matt Bevin.

[Mr. Smith]

You guys still have two weeks of this, pace yourselves at least.

I still remember the sh**tstorm that happened here with the Gillespie polls. Good lord.

If anything Jones is the Gillespie here though.

More like the Jason Kander methinks.

And just for the record, I didn't think Gillespie would win, I simply figured it'd look more like Herring v. Obenshain in 2013 rather than the blowout it turned out to be.

[Mr. Smith]

From what I've seen, Allred's refusal to allow a neutral third party to examine the yearbook and confirm if it is or is not Moore's handwriting has led to a lot of people doubting the accusations. There is absolutely no reason to do that if it is authentic. I think Moore will narrowly win since there's no actual confirmed evidence, Doug Jones is so liberal, and Alabama is so conservative. If Jones didn't support late term abortion, amnesty, and gun control, maybe things would be different, but his only hope is winning a slim plurality due to republican write-ins.

Or turnout is real low as happened to Coakley in LIBERAL MASSACHUSETTS.

[Mr. Smith]

One of the accusers dug up a graduation card signed by Moore and it was verified by a forensics specialist.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/woman-shares-new-evidence-of-relationship-with-roy-moore-when-she-was-17/2017/12/04/0c3d1cde-d903-11e7-a841-2066faf731ef_story.html?utm_term=.f036030f5b90

Hopefully this is enough to push Jones over the finish line, but I'm not holding my breath.

Congrats, it would seem Moore has given our Quistling a chance for a Kandering again. Still gonna be a loss though.

[Mr. Smith]

Looks like all that talk of "Moore momentum" in this race was basically just hot air, see also VA-GOV.

Wasn't hot-air in GA-06. You predicted Ossoff then, I believe.

[Mr. Smith]

Have Jones and Moore debated at all?

Moore's scared, so they haven't.

So scared, apparently, that he even let Jones have control of the TV advertising market, too!

Hillary also had most of that market, as did Rubio in the primaries. In short: bad argument

[Mr. Smith]

Have Jones and Moore debated at all?

Moore's scared, so they haven't.

So scared, apparently, that he even let Jones have control of the TV advertising market, too!

Hillary also had most of that market, as did Rubio in the primaries. In short: bad argument

Yes I'm not sure if dumping most of his haul into ads was a smart idea. In Alabama it should be pretty clear that a win is going to come from superior turnout. I mean for his almost complete air dominance, what does he have to show for it - a polling trend back to Moore?

To be fair, he wouldn't have any chance against even a scandal-ridden Moore without it.

He would've been as lucky as Ron Crumpton or Parker Griffifth without it.

[Mr. Smith]

If Bobby Bright, Parker Griffith, or Craig Ford ran for this seat they would have one. Doug Jones is too liberal to win in Alabama. And most of the teenage girls were over the age of 16 which is the age of consent in Alabama. And the 14 year old would be a legal violation and many people don't believe she's telling the truth enough that they'll vote for him anyway and hope he didn't do it. If the Senate Ethics Committee investigates and proves he did it they'll likely expell him. Then Mo Brooks would likely run in another special election. If they can't prove he did it then a pro-life, pro-gun Democrat could run in 2020 and put the seat in play.

No, no they wouldn't have. (Both to the question of in anyone would be doing better than Jones AND if the "Ethics" Committee would expel an extra majority vote)