Alabama Megathread 2: Thou Shall Not Touch Teenage Girls

[Devout Centrist]

Do they know they’re dealing with Roy Moore? He’s not going to withdraw or step down.

[Devout Centrist]

Would it be reasonable to expect Moore to actually stay put in the face of all these accusations and evidence of his creepiness coming to light? I mean we already seem past the usual line where politicians would resign. Now I feel like any day I could expect to wake up to "Moore drops out" followed shortly by "Alabama court replaces Moore on ballot with generic Republican"

Except this is Roy Moore we're talking about here. He wouldn't drop out if his life depended on it.

[Devout Centrist]

I think IceSpear wants Moore to win for whatever bizarre reason.

I wanted Hillary to win Texas, but I knew she wouldn't.

Do I really need to tell you why these situations aren't analogous

[Devout Centrist]

I think IceSpear wants Moore to win for whatever bizarre reason.

I wanted Hillary to win Texas, but I knew she wouldn't.

Do I really need to tell you why these situations aren't analogous

You're right. Hillary probably had a better chance at winning Texas than Jones does of beating Moore.

You completely missed my point. Hillary spent miniscule amounts of time and money on Texas. It wasn't even a target. Now, there's a durable, albeit rather small, chance that Doug Jones can win and you're comparing this situation, in which a radical from the incumbent party is embroiled in a sexual abuse scandal, to Hillary winning Texas. Hm.

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Wow, it's almost like this forum is bad at analysis. Wonder who that reminds me of. Here, on the other hand, is what a good pessimistic take looks like:

Why are so many people acting as if Jones has this in the bag? Everybody is thinking about their own decency and forgetting about Alabama's.

Anyway, I haven't seen much evidence of massive movement in aggregate polling where it counts, which is Jones' percentage of the vote. He was basically hovering between 42-44% prior to this; even if you include the garbage 1-day polls and polls from questionable pollsters (pretty much all we have), the past 7 or so polls put him at an average of 44%.

Moore's percentages have dropped; Jones have stayed the same. This is the classic recipe of a Southern election where supposedly-principled Republicans temporarily jump ship before flocking back by Election Day, along with all of the "independents" and "undecideds". If Jones isn't sitting at 50% in aggregate polling or ahead by 4-5 points consistently, he isn't going to win.

[Devout Centrist]

Uh...I've said his first line almost verbatim countless times. In fact, I was one of the first to say it when this story first broke. I've also said that same "undecideds" theory countless times. Pay better attention.

The fact you crib Adam's analysis and turn it into some bargain bin crap is not at issue here.

[Devout Centrist]

Yea this is looking much more like a 2012 Akin situation, where a story takes a while to fully take hold in the minds of the voters and gets worse over time.

You also have a problem of if too much time passes then eventually voters will start forgetting it happened.

4 weeks is probably two political cycles already.

True, but Moore seems content to bring up what he (ALLEGEDLY) did quite often

[Devout Centrist]

The attorney that represented him for the Ten Commandments case and who chaired one of his campaigns for Supreme Court will be appearing with him at the press conference.

Is he going to sue the accusers?!

[Devout Centrist]

https://mobile.twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/930911289458745344

Speculation that Moore will not drop out

[Devout Centrist]

He won't drop out. He has nothing to lose and knows damn well he still has a chance of winning. If the Republicans force him out, he becomes a national martyr.

Let's not get carried away here, Roy Moore is not Ben Kenobi

[Devout Centrist]

Oh my god this conference is a disaster

[Devout Centrist]

THEY HAVE A HANDWRITING EXPERT LOOKING AT THE NOTE HE WROTE XD

[Devout Centrist]

So, basically, the evidence that his accuser made this up:

-She said she never saw Moore after her assault, but she had to get a divorce at the court where Moore was a judge (LOL)

-HANDWRITING EXPERT IS BEING CALLED IN

-(((MEDIA CONSPIRACY)))

[Devout Centrist]

I have never seen a sex abuse scandal handled this badly. Holy sh*t.

[Devout Centrist]

The ages match up...

[Devout Centrist]

Did you guys not read it?
He said that it said D.A when he was not a DA.
I do believe it’s BS That yearbook is probably a fake,

With all that being said while I want/support Moore he should drop out I don’t want to lose a safe senate seat!

He was an Assistant DA in 1977.

Go away.

[Devout Centrist]

“The dress is white and gold! It’s all there in the photo!”

[Devout Centrist]

Laying low after coming out so forcefully isn't going to help Moore, especially while the airwaves are being dominated by Jones.

[Devout Centrist]

If I were the Governor I would order Gloria to turn over the yearbook for analysis or I would reset the election date. Republicans need to Learn to fight.

Fighting in this case would be dealing with Gloria.  I think Gloria may be trying to pull something, even if all the other claims are true.  Dear Gloria always wants to be the story.

-Governor Ivey can't do that
-most likely unconstitutional; certainly very damaging

[Devout Centrist]

Breitbart has a story that Nance's stepson says she is a liar.

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2017/11/16/exclusive-stepson-of-roy-moore-accuser-accusations-one-hundred-percent-a-lie/

I know it is Breitbart.  But it is one more reason that the yearbook needs to be analyzed.

>Stepson

WEW

SCREENCAPPIG THE SIMPSONS TOOO HOLY  

[Devout Centrist]

https://twitter.com/ThomasWictor/status/891135762632105984

WHAT A LUMINARY

[Devout Centrist]

Jones, in some ways, seems more liberal than a significant portion of the Senate Democratic Caucus.

[Devout Centrist]

Decline? Kamala, these folks didn't have morals to begin with

[Devout Centrist]

Maybe I'm different from most Alabama voters but that ad doesn't seem too great to me. Everyone already knows about Moore's scandal, and I wouldn't think undecided / unsure voters particularly care about what the Washington establishment has to say about Moore. I feel as if Jones needs to sell himself to these voters.

Washington Establishment? The ad cites Shelby and Sessions, for f**k's sake.

[Devout Centrist]

Laying low doesn’t work if you come out guns blazing at first

[Devout Centrist]

Laying low doesn’t work if you come out guns blazing at first

How are you a centrist? You said that miles should have died in the abortion and sent him screen shots of what you said he is wondering why you claim to be a centrist when you have a -10 social score.

tell miles I said no

Now you’re flip flopping I have the picture look for yourself.

my opinions are to intelligent for you to understand you got that kid