Alabama Megathread 2: Thou Shall Not Touch Teenage Girls

[ursulahx]

If I can get us back on topic...

I think it's crazy to push this race all the way over to Lean D. Still 26 days to go until the actual election, and this is a state which hasn't elected a Democrat statewide since I was barely old enough to interest Roy Moore.* With the local party digging its heels in and relishing a conflict with the 'establishment' GOP, Trump deciding it's best if he says nothing (otherwise he would have said something by now), and the fact that Jones is pro-choice, there's way too much stuff here weighing the race in Moore's favour. I'm not saying he's a slam dunk, only that this race is toss-up at best.


[*The fact I'm male may also be a disincentive, but let's be open-minded here.]

[ursulahx]

OK, now that I’ve seen the Fox poll I’m more open to agreeing that Jones is ahead - at the moment. Will be very interesting to see if this is still the case at the start of December. Two weeks is a heck of a long time. (Of course, Jones could be +20 by that point...)

[ursulahx]

My guess is ‘EnglishPete’ is neither English nor called Pete, and is probably running his account from an eighth floor apartment in Volgograd. He probably has a few pro-Brexit accounts running on Twitter, as well, all with stock photo avatars. And that’s already more attention than he deserves from me, so I’ll stop there.

[ursulahx]

Pretty sure the username is a reference to Tim Roth's character in The Hateful Eight.

Ah, thanks. Haven’t seen TH8. I gave up on QT some years ago; he peaked with ‘Jackie Brown’.

In the meantime, is there any way I can mute the word “yearbook”?

[ursulahx]

Madison County and Mobile County are the ones to really watch.

I would also be looking closely at Jefferson County and Shelby County....

Although Jones doesn't have to win Shelby County for a win, he does need to pick up a decent chunk of Republican leaning voters in suburban Birmingham, which actually is a decent chunk of the vote in Jefferson County, once you take out the cities of Birmigham and Bessemer (That vote overwhelmingly Democratic).... If he's not winning Metro Birmingham, it's difficult to see how he put's together a statewide win....

Based on what everyone else is saying, I'm guessing that Jones basically has to win Tuscaloosa County if he's to have a chance? It seems like a Democratic win means the Black Belt gets thickened and Democrats pick up Mobile, Madison (Huntsville), and maybe Talladega (which I only know from knowing NASCAR fans). For the most part, it's the margins you have to look at in a strongly racially polarized state like Alabama. What's the thinking on Jefferson County, something around 65%?

I don't know the state at all, so by all means throw my input out the window, but Mobile and Madison were both approx 55-40 Trump, so there's certainly ample opportunity for Jones there. Talladega was 60-35 Trump, and Tuscaloosa 57-38, so I could see the latter falling to Jones but not the former. Lee County (58-35 Trump) might also have some opportunity for Jones. Not that the presidential race is necessarily a good guide, but I'm assuming most Trump voters will be straight down the line for someone like Moore.

[ursulahx]

New Strategy Research poll coming later today.

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/933051544295149575

National poll, I hear, not AL-only. May help drive the narrative, but the numbers will be meaningless.

[ursulahx]

The Quinnipiac poll was national, this should be just AL.

Oh, ok. I assumed it was the NSR poll Enten was talking about here: https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/933049620648804352?s=17

[ursulahx]

Gena Richardson's story made no sense. She says he called her and spoke to her on the phone at school in an era when there were no cell phones.  Is she seriously suggesting that the school office would receive a call from a strange man and the take a child out of class to hand over their phone to her to take the call?

Yes? I mean, I’m not even that old and I know that’s how it worked. The school office probably also know Roy Moore was the assistant DA, so he’s not some random stranger.

Life before cell phones was... very different, to say the least.

Without passing judgment on the validity of the claims, I will say it was not uncommon for teachers to have phones in their classrooms as well. So the office could just connect Moore to the line for the right classroom and the girl could talk to him without even being taken out of class.

I’ll give EnglishPedo the benefit of the doubt and assume it was different in the UK.

Just for the info, I know of no school in the UK which routinely has phones in its classrooms, not even nowadays.

[ursulahx]

Moore will still win by high single digits. Sadly.

Maybe not high, but the victory will be moderately comfortable. This is Ossoff all over again. The race has become nationalised, and in the current climate that only helps the Republicans (except where there are other races to diffuse attention, as was the case with VA-GOV).

[ursulahx]

I'm bored. When does this election actually happen?

Really no point in paying much attention to this race until the end of the week. But that would be for the likes of us to break the habit of a lifetime...

[ursulahx]

Independent Lee Busby is in.

Have seen it suggested he’ll take more votes from Jones, but that could be wishful thinking/pessimism.

[ursulahx]

At last, some more data! The polls (as in ‘16) seem to be coming down to how the pollsters are predicting turnout. If Moore wins, it seems likely to me that Republican voters have now absorbed the scandal, processed it, and hid behind “but we can’t let the other side win.” Access Hollywood Redux, in other words.

[ursulahx]

650 isn't that big a sample, as well.

[ursulahx]

I will never to this day why Doug Jones insisted on being pro-choice in what is possibly the state most hostile towards abortion in the country.

I don't think that's why he loses though. It will only be a 2% difference in the end. The real reason why Jones will lose is tribal partisanship. A lot of republican leaning people like Doug Jones and dislike Roy Moore... but they want to send someone who is conservative to the white house.

It'd be different if this was a governor race. But it isn't. I don't think Jon Bel Edwards would win a senate seat in Louisana vs Vitter.

I can’t comment on the last bit, but I certainly agree with the rest. Republican voters, exactly as with Trump, are desperately seeking reasons why it’s OK to vote for Moore. Never underestimate people’s capacity for wilful blindness, I’m seeing it in my own country with Brexit.

Moore by 5, maybe higher.

[ursulahx]

What’s the sample size on the WaPo poll?

[ursulahx]

What’s the sample size on the WaPo poll?

739 likely voters.

Ah, thank you. Was hoping for 1,000+, which would have given me more confidence. Still, it’s a data point and therefore worth something.

I still say Moore by 5.

[ursulahx]

If Jones wins, it’ll be a narrow victory. I imagine there’ll be some sort of legal challenge and, whether there is or not, the process of certification will suddenly find itself encountering all sorts of holdups and snags. Jones may not be seated before the midterms (if Merrick Garland could be kept off SCOTUS for a year - effectively for ever - anything is doable).

[ursulahx]

I hope I'm wrong but I feel Moore will outperform polling slightly. I'm confident that there has to be a sizable bloc that supports him but publicly wouldn't admit it 

It's possible but the problem is that while there's a lot of talk about a shy voter effect for Republicans there isn't much evidence.

Not wanting to be a concern troll, but that's what people were saying about shy Trump voters.