Alabama Megathread 2: Thou Shall Not Touch Teenage Girls

[McGovernForPrez]

If Breitbart is bailing on Moore this is probably over. Seems like things only go down hill from here for him.

[McGovernForPrez]

I feel like to many people are going "lol it's Alabama". Yeah it's Alabama but this scandal only seems to be deepening. It's likely that Moore ends up being more of an Akin than a Trump. The fact that even Breitbart is abandoning him pretty much proves that he's toast.

[McGovernForPrez]

I feel like to many people are going "lol it's Alabama". Yeah it's Alabama but this scandal only seems to be deepening. It's likely that Moore ends up being more of an Akin than a Trump. The fact that even Breitbart is abandoning him pretty much proves that he's toast.

1) Akin would've won in Alabama.

2) Akin might even have won a 2018 rematch in Missouri. At the very least he'd make it a single digit race. Times have changed.

3) Moore still leads in most of the polls.

There's nothing to suggest a Jones victory except cherry picking polls or having unearned faith in Alabama voters.

I think your faith in voters is far too low. Sure Akin would have won Alabama but Moore's controversy is far worse than Akin's. Alabama is a really lame state with a lot of very "deplorable" voters, but I think the votes are easily out there. Almost all the polls do show a massive swing towards Jones. The race was already a high single digits race before the controversy. Even outlier polls like Emerson have shown a massive shift.

[McGovernForPrez]

Reminder to the pessimists: Moore could barely win statewide with Obama on the ballot.

Obviously it's a different scenario but it still shows that Moore wasn't very strong to begin with.

[McGovernForPrez]

Reminder to the pessimists: Moore could barely win statewide with Obama on the ballot.

Obviously it's a different scenario but it still shows that Moore wasn't very strong to begin with.

We already know he's not very strong. He's probably the weakest possible candidate Republicans have. That's why he was "only" going to win by 15-20 points before the allegations, and why he might only win by single digits now. But he's still going to win.

2012 was a different time, Trump changed the game. Also, the court race was not as partisan or nationalized as the Senate race is.

Polls showed about 10 point race before the allegations so I don't know what you're talking about. Also 20 points is the standard number for statewide R's.

Obviously it's a different time but Trump certainly didn't completely rewrite the rules of politics. I understand why Dems are pessimistic about this race given Trump's victory but it's still silly to be this pessimistic.

[McGovernForPrez]

https://www.politico.com/story/2017/11/14/rnc-cuts-off-moore-244904

According to the article internal polling only put Moore ahead by two points before the scandal.

[McGovernForPrez]

I think IceSpear should lay off the sheer amount of posts he makes about it. It’s the same thing over and over again, and it’s a bit annoying at this point. We get it, you don’t think the Democrats have a chance of winning. You don’t have to make 50 posts about it.

Yeah it's just miserable to hear the same thing over and over again without any real argument besides "Muh Alabama".

[McGovernForPrez]

I think IceSpear should lay off the sheer amount of posts he makes about it. It’s the same thing over and over again, and it’s a bit annoying at this point. We get it, you don’t think the Democrats have a chance of winning. You don’t have to make 50 posts about it.

Yeah it's just miserable to hear the same thing over and over again without any real argument besides "Muh Alabama".

I mean, the real issue is that I'm disrupting the circlejerk. You guys have no problem with "Sen-elect Jones <333333" spam.

Also, Moore up 6 in the new poll. #Vindication

Also Moore's pre-scandal internals showed him up two. #Vindication

[McGovernForPrez]

I bet the Democrats regret not going with a candidate who was pro-life.  I bet there are enough voters like me in Alabama who are deeply disturbed by Moore's actions but would never vote for (what we view as) a baby killer.  If the Democrat were pro-life, I would have this at Likely D right now, but this seems to be a tossup.

I wish we had a pro-life candidate here myself.

[McGovernForPrez]

So there is a robocall going around with a fake reporter from WaPo named Bernie Bernstein. I'm surprised they didn't do George Steyer de Rothschild.

Yeah that's pretty disturbing that someone is doing it to elect a pedophile. Is this in anyway a prosecutable offense?

[McGovernForPrez]

I bet the Democrats regret not going with a candidate who was pro-life.  I bet there are enough voters like me in Alabama who are deeply disturbed by Moore's actions but would never vote for (what we view as) a baby killer.  If the Democrat were pro-life, I would have this at Likely D right now, but this seems to be a tossup.

That's what bothers me about "pro-lifers".  People are upset about "baby killers" but don't have a problem when the babies become teenagers and get molested??!!

We do have a problem with it, but murder is obviously a worse crime than any sexual crime could ever be.

What does the term zygote mean to you?

One has little doubt you would have opposed reinstating the adoption cost tax credit because it was going to be paid for by raising the corporate income tax level from 20% to 20.04%

Pro-life my ass

As the great lord Richard Ojeda once said, "I'm pro-life when the rest of these guys are just pro-birth". Aside from supporting abortion being illegal everything else Republicans do make abortion more necessary and common. Things such as preventing access to contraceptives raise abortion rates massively. Proper sex education would lower abortion rates as well. Then there's the fact that our foster home system is awful.

[McGovernForPrez]

538's discussion of various possible outcomes of this race

(Short take: they're all bad for the GOP, but some of them are worse than others.)

I definitely think they should just chalk it up as a loss and reclaim it in 2020. Moore winning will probably hurt them even more in the midterms. Nationally 2/3s want him to drop out lol.

[McGovernForPrez]

Not even conservative media is willing to defend Moore. Not looking good for his election chances.

[McGovernForPrez]

Apparently McConnell wants Sessions to run a write-in campaign.

[McGovernForPrez]

Lol I'm moving this from Lean R to Lean D at this point. Obviously the new poll has a narrative but it doesn't matter. Moore has been abandoned by the media, and the RNC. There have been 2 polls showing Jones up and one showing it tied. This will likely spiral out of Moore's control.

[McGovernForPrez]

Ivey is such an FF. She's actually trying to bring some dignity back to AL GOP.

[McGovernForPrez]

Yeah, Ivey isn't an FF. She said she believes the women but will vote for Moore anyways because "we need the GOP to keep the majority" because, you know, they are already making a lot of good progress...

Yeah I repealed that FF so fast. Not even Richard Shelby is voting for him.

[McGovernForPrez]

I do love the old hits like 'Ted Kennedy is a communist', 'JFK stole Illinois'. I'm still waiting for one about Kennedy SR being a bootlegger

I hate to feed any fodder to the troll, but isn't that last one actually kind of true?

I mean Illinois was actually stolen from Nixon too. I don't think it was JFK as much as the Chicago Democratic machine was operating on their own.

[McGovernForPrez]

I mean when people say teenager they do tend to mean pre-adult teenagers aka ~13-17

That being said I don't think you'll find happiness posting on this board Greedo. It's fairly left-leaning and no offense but you clearly don't understand how adult attraction or sexuality works yet. It'll sound patronizing as all hell but you might want to give yourself a few years before trying to post about that sort of thing in a forum with primarily people who disagree with you, or else you'll end up pretty much just getting attacked and mocked and called all sorts of disgusting things.

As for those of you abusing a 16 year old on the internet I mean I hope you're proud of yourself lol

Back to the topic at hand, I do think I agree with PredictIt that Moore is a slight favorite. The GOP will go radio silent on this and hope that the tilt of the state saves a senate seat, then excommunicate Moore the first chance they get.

Jones' spending advantage could carry the day though - he has so much money that you have to believe he will succeed in making this a negative campaign and therefore a low-turnout one. I actually think this is a race where going positive or standing for something would hurt Jones, since that only really works if at least some minimum threshold of the population agrees with you. Idk what that threshold needs to be (maybe 40% or so?) but it sure as hell isn't low-30s. Drive turnout down, remind voters who and what Moore is every single day until December 12th, then hope to god Republicans stay home in disgust. That's the play book here I think.

This was some really solid analysis.

[McGovernForPrez]

JMC will show Doug's lead widen.