Alabama Megathread 2: Thou Shall Not Touch Teenage Girls

[NOVA Green]

Not to play Devil's Advocate, but one must certainly wonder what the Hell is going on in a State that Ronald Reagan only narrowly beat Jimmy Carter in way back in 1980?

I suspect this story is resonating particularly hard because of White Female voters in 'Bama don't like nor respect the groping and assault allegations involving teenage girls, and are swinging hard against Moore (After all Women voters will likely be something like 53-54% of the electorate in 'Bama in 12/17).

We see the collective poll numbers, the MSM has been dominated with stories regarding sexual harassment and assault for months that started with Weinstein, was extended to other Hollywood Celebrities, convulsed major political leaders in both the Democratic and Republican Parties alike in statewide news from Florida, to Illinois, to Oregon, etc....

This is after a Presidential Election where Trump won the electoral college while losing the Popular Vote, where accusations of Sexual Harassment in the past did not stop his victory.

As I posited to my wife, shortly after the NJ and VA '17 statewide results, it does appear that "Angry Women" are swinging hard in off-year elections.

The stories that we are seeing every day generally involve Powerful Men that for long periods of time have been usurping their status and privilege to prey on younger individuals, regardless of Gender (Although this is much more common among straight Men)....

Now we have Moore, who has wrapped himself for decades behind the shield of the cloth, who apparently has been macking on teenage girls in the mall of his hometown of Gadsen, 'Bama since the early 1980s!

We also now have an increasingly assertive Feminist voice defending those who alleged that Bill Clinton sexually harassed them back in the '70s/'80s... (Consensual blowjobs are obviously not the issue here).

Although it will be interesting to see where this all goes politically in the short term in places like 'Bama, perhaps the most interesting thing will be to see where this all goes in the long term....

The rule of Male dominated elected positions of power are over come 2018....

I suspected that whichever party finds the best Female recruits for their districts in competitive or potentially competitive elections will kick some serious butt come 2018....

Something tells me the Gender Gap is not only real, but now you have a ton of Men trying to defend this serial predator, who not only "Courted Teenage Girls" in 'Bama, but also the statements of the victims appears to show that he sexually and physically assaulted at least two teenagers in Alabama without their consent....

For many White 'Bama Evangelical Christians Doug Jones might not quite be a Jimmy Carter kinda guy, but hell at least he will represent the voters of 'Bama, just like Manchin does in West Virginia, and buck his own Party if need be on fundamental votes.

We need more Jones and Manchins in the US Senate, not to mention a few more Collins and Murkowskis, to get us back to the groove of a functioning legislative branch.

[NOVA Green]

Madison County and Mobile County are the ones to really watch.

I would also be looking closely at Jefferson County and Shelby County....

Although Jones doesn't have to win Shelby County for a win, he does need to pick up a decent chunk of Republican leaning voters in suburban Birmingham, which actually is a decent chunk of the vote in Jefferson County, once you take out the cities of Birmigham and Bessemer (That vote overwhelmingly Democratic).... If he's not winning Metro Birmingham, it's difficult to see how he put's together a statewide win....

[NOVA Green]

Maybe I'm different from most Alabama voters but that ad doesn't seem too great to me. Everyone already knows about Moore's scandal, and I wouldn't think undecided / unsure voters particularly care about what the Washington establishment has to say about Moore. I feel as if Jones needs to sell himself to these voters.

Seems like a basic permission ad, although stronger because of all the conservatives/other people  that have come out against Moore. The point of it is to tell voters that it's "ok" to vote for Jones because many of their leaders are ok with it.

I don't really know if it'll make a difference either way, but the election is close enough where I think it could potentially have an effect before wearing off.

It could move the needle in the key areas where Jones needs to significantly out-perform any recent Democrat running statewide in 'Bama (Suburban White women from the key Metro areas of Birmingham, Huntsville, Mobile, Montgomery who typically vote 'Pub)....

I think we will find the 5-7% or so undecided voters from 'Bama to be heavily from that Demographic....

Not enough for an outright win, but looks like this race is going down to the trenches and a +2% raw total statewide vote gain, among 5-7% of the electorate among a key segment of the electorate, might well be enough to push the ball over the finish line for a TD....

[NOVA Green]

It's kind of amazing when you take a step back and realize what this discussion even is. Serial kid molester, should he step down, is it the kids' fault, can he win? It's pretty f**king bananas we're even asking any of those questions.

No, no. The REAL problem is Atlas Forum posters pointing out how deplorable Alabama voters are.

Shoot Icespear---- I recall way back on Atlas during the '08 where various Democratic avatars talked about how deplorable and racist West Virginia voters were because they voted overwhelmingly for HRC during the '08 Primaries.

There were similar discussions in 2012 regarding the '12 GE results from WV, and once again the usual suspects are popping off about how racist and deplorable WV voters are.

Fast forward to 2016, and we have another crop of posters talking about how racist, misogynistic and redneck WV is for voting for a Jewish Socialist from VT rather than a Female Presidential Candidate!!!

Throughout all of these discussions on Atlas, I believe that I have actively attempted to challenge the stereotypes regarding West Virginia, and will continue to do the same for Alabama, regardless of the outcome of the 12/12/17 US-SEN special election.

Atlas per se doesn't amount to a hill of beans in the overall context of American Politics, but still when we see all of the crap posted regarding Alabama from 'Dem and 'Pub posters alike, in what has essentially become a nationalized election, we still need to remain vigilant and call out the stereotypes regardless of from what direction it comes from.

Sounds to me like Gustaf and Greedo are both "On-Tilt" when it comes to the 'Bama Sen election, not to mention others that rely more upon stereotypes regarding Alabama, for whatever perceived partisan political gain.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tilt_(poker)

[NOVA Green]

Senate candidate Roy Moore's son is arrested for the ninth time

The son of Republican U.S. Senate candidate Roy Moore has been arrested in Alabama on a misdemeanor charge linked to allegations of illegal hunting. Etowah County Sheriff's spokeswoman Natalie Barton tells news outlets 27-year-old Caleb Moore surrendered Monday on a charge of third-degree criminal trespass. He was accused of hunting without permission and hunting over bait last year.

Caleb Moore was arrested on drug charges in 2015, but those were dropped after he entered a pre-trial diversion program. Monday's arrest marks the ninth time the 27-year-old has been in jail, AL.com reported.

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/senate-candidate-roy-moore-son-arrested-ninth-time-article-1.3555021

Sounds like there is a dirty seed that dropped from an Apple tree somewhere along the Family Tree...

Best case scenario Moore Sr is just a serial harasser of Minors, with potentially having committed sexual assault, including against Minors (And I say that for legalistic reasons, not that I doubt the testimony of the victims), using his power as DA of Etowah County to keep the law in check from his behavior,

Meanwhile his son, gets off with slaps on the wrist for a decade on drug related charges, poaching, and trespassing because his Daddy is a big player in State politics...

Hell, where I come from if you are poaching on other people's land, "spotlighting Deer" for a kill, that isn't real hunting, that is a criminal offense that will send you to jail, and quite possibly even to Prison....

Needless to say, the son busted on drugs.... what about those Black folk in 'Bama, let alone the Poor White folk that don't come from the same rank and privilege, what charges would we face for exactly the same crime?

We don't all have Daddies like Moore that hide behind the law to protect us from our transgressions, and at what point does Moore become yet another corrupt Politician from 'Bama (Sure both Democrats and Republicans in 'Bama have been guilty of this for decades) who has flagrantly used his position of wealth and power in order to usurp the very law that he vowed to uphold?

[NOVA Green]

Yeah, goddamn, like 2/3 of this thread has been a series of 2 or more posters headlocked in arguments over tangential minutiae or stuff that just doesn't have anything to do with the election whatsoever.

I have a number of people on ignore. The last couple of pages have been 1/2 ignored people, 1/4 people quoting ignored people, and 1/4 real content.

Starting to think maybe I should actually use the ignore button for the first time.... a couple posters are starting to jump to the stop of my mind, considering their conversations and arguments have virtually nothing to contribute when it comes to the upcoming election in Alabama....

[NOVA Green]

Independent Lee Busby is in.

Have seen it suggested he’ll take more votes from Jones, but that could be wishful thinking/pessimism.

I doubt he gets more than 1-2% of the vote. He should have no impact on the race.

Probably not this race, but sounds like he's trying to get his name on in the state for potentially running in future Statewide election as Indy/ Moderate 'Pub 'Bama style, in a State which after all does have a much higher percentage of Military Vets than many others in the US...

One must certainly wonder to what extent part of the whole Moore phenomenon has more to do with a rejection of smokey backroom handpicked political leaders, which was long pervasive in the State for over a Century, combined with a feeling among many rank and file 'Pub Voters that they have been sold down the River for a long time economically by backhanded Washington deals with handshakes by both major Political Parties.

[NOVA Green]

So one thing that has been ignored thus far on the thread is not only that Moore made his first public appearance since the scandals have broken, but where he made it and why....

(This is just a link to the first campaign event, and all of the comments below are my own)

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/11/27/roy-moore-rally-alabama-215871

Instead of focusing on the optics of this small town in Alabama, and how that is presented on local (Free) statewide news coverage, there was obviously something deeper going on....

1.) The Alabama US-Senate election will ultimately in my mind be decided upon swings within the large Metro areas of the State, that account for a significant majority of the State total vote...

These include many heavily, and in some cases overwhelmingly Republican White Suburbs and Exurbs.

2.) I get that Moore is trying to double-down on the Rural and Small Town 'Pub base voters that catapulted his career some decades back, and even more recently in the 'Pub Senate run-off, but this seems to be a curious place to do it....

3.) I get the idea of going to some small town of 2.5k in some limited admission Community Center, where you have a standing room only gig (200-250 people) with hardcore supporters driving in from neighboring counties and elsewhere in Alabama, to create the optics of an enthusiastic crowd....

4.) Why DeKalb County, and not Etowah County just a few Miles down the Road, which is an overwhelmingly Republican County, where he first started his career at Gadsen (And not just as the creepy DA stalking Teenage Girls at the Mall)....

5.) Dekalb is a County with a population of ~70k, that in many ways is closer to a Piedmont County in Georgia, where one of my Son-In-Laws grew up....

It is an overwhelmingly White Manufacturing County, with an extremely large Latino Population....

Until very recently, it used to be a major Textile producing County, known as the "Sock Capitol of the World"

http://blog.al.com/huntsville-times-business/2011/04/the_decline_of_the_hosiery_ind.html

The major employer is currently Cagle's with a large Poultry Manufacturing Plant in Collinsville....

6.) I wonder to what extent Moore is trying to use DeKalb to try to wrap himself around the cloth of Trump, thinking that pandering to resentment against Latino poultry factory workers and the local Old Timers lamenting the loss of the Textile jobs, but don't want to work in the Poultry Factory and whose sons and daughters are drifting down the road to jobs elsewhere, will somehow win him Alabama....

7.) It almost makes we wonder to what extent his campaign has given up on the heavily Republican Suburban and Exurban areas of the largest Cities of Alabama....  

Why hasn't Moore scheduled any events at any of the myriad of Auto plants around Alabama???

I guess maybe he thinks it might be more fashionable in Alabama to play to Anti-Latino resentment, since most White 'Bamans these days are cut from very different cloth than that of their  parents and grandparents......

8.) Just a few musings....

EDIT: One other thing I neglected to mention was that Politico appears to have incorrectly state Moore's % of the Republican Senate Primary Vote in Dekalb County....

I believe they cited it as 59%, but it was actually only 49% since they only ran the numbers a two person race....

Mo Brooks, The Congressman from the 5th District got 10% of the Vote here...

Sounds to me like Moore is just still trying to consolidate the base....

[NOVA Green]

So, back to the topic on hand, any thoughts about what a Winning map looks like in Alabama for the Dem and Rep US-SEN candidates?

Ran some numbers based upon the latest JMC Poll on another thread....

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=278477.msg5933746#msg5933746

Meanwhile one of our best data-crunchers from the Southland (Former Pres Griffith) has basically given up on this thread, since it turned into yet another Atlas stream of raw sewage and filth, without any real content involved....

Anyways, here is part of the Professor's (Excuse me President) Griffith's work a few short weeks back on this very thread...

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=277205.msg5907844#msg5907844

Damn.... poor mods, must feel like herding cats around these parts, and no wonder there have been very few posts of any substance for days, and arguably a couple weeks on this Damn thread...

Excuse me for my blasphemy, but Jesus Christ, this isn't an election Night megathread...

Any thoughts about which regions and counties Moore/Jones needs to win and by what margins to create an electoral victory for the US-SEN-AL Special Election???

Turnout stuff is obviously key here, but thinking Jones needs to essentially keep it close in Metro Birmingham, flip Metro Mobile by margins, essentially tie in Northern 'Bama, and maintain decent margins in Metro Montgomery....

Thoughts???

[NOVA Green]

Anyone know if and when we will start to see numbers for absentee ballot returns for Alabama by County/Party?

Also, will there be any early in-person voting for this election, or will it all be election day ballots plus absentee ballots?

[NOVA Green]

Anyone know if and when we will start to see numbers for absentee ballot returns for Alabama by County/Party?

Also, will there be any early in-person voting for this election, or will it all be election day ballots plus absentee ballots?

Alabama doesn't have early voting, and absentee voting requires an acceptable excuse, so there's not too much of that either.

TY!!!

So basically there is nothing for Atlas posters to do until 12/12 (Especially those that finish College Terms early) than just sit here and talk about the same old crap that has filled over 50 pages?

Man, was hoping we could at least have some real election results to start debating and discussing, instead of all of this drivel on the thread over the past few weeks....   

[NOVA Green]

I'm waiting any day now for the cops to bust down his door for possession of child pornography and for him to still refuse to drop out while getting booked at the county jail.

FAKE POLICE!! FAKE CHARGES !! RIGGED SYSTEM!!

Doug Jones put those there man....I swear!

No, it was (((Soros))).

Roy Moore goes full anti-Semite:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Libs love to throw around buzz words; where does Moore degrade Soros for being of Jewish heritage?

I'm going to point out that as someone who is Jewish, that is as obvious as a dog-whistle as you are going to get for someone who is an anti-semite.

Absolutely agree on your point....

Still, the problem for Moore is also that 30% of Alabama Whites are not Evangelical Christians, and appear to heavily favor Jones.

Even if it was a deliberate attempt to mobilize the sliver of Alabama White evangelicals that are Anti-Semites, one would imagine it wouldn't accomplish much since they are already on-board with Moore, and if anything backfire in the areas where Jones needs to maximize his vote (Metro Mobile, Birmingham, and Huntsville, all of which have relatively large Jewish-American communities that work closely with the leaderships of a wide variety of Religious Denominations on Interfaith issues)...

One should also note that this statement, combined with Mitt Romney's comments, and the traditional reluctance of most mainline Evangelical Denominations in Alabama to get explicitly involved in politics (Since their role is to preach the Gospel and expand the flock, and not get involved too much directly into items that could divide their flock in what is a very competitive marketplace in a very religious State like Alabama), these types of statements don't roll too well.

Most Muslim-Americans in Alabama are African-Americans who have friends, family members and neighbors that are Christian, which is yet another religious minority that Moore has targeted repeatedly in the past.

So, although I agree that Moore might well be trying to use these dog whistles, I'm not convinced it will help him more than hurt him (Think Strange voters in the Metro Birmingham, Mobile, and Huntsville, not to mention elsewhere).

[NOVA Green]

Kaitlan Collins‏ @kaitlancollins 31 minutes ago
Requests for absentee ballots are way up in Alabama. Madison County, the third most populated, has sent out 2,900 & received 2,016 so far. That's much higher than the 650 they sent during the runoff & even surpasses the 1,900 they received during 2014 governor's race.

Kaitlan Collins @kaitlancollins 7 minutes ago
Replying to @kaitlancollins
Officials in Mobile County, the second most populated, tell me they have sent out nearly 2,000 absentee ballots.

https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/938132179170873349

Thanks Castro!

Knew we were finally got to get some decent posts on this trash thread!!!!

Keep the Tide Rollin'.....   

[NOVA Green]

Have Jones and Moore debated at all?

Moore's scared, so they haven't.

So scared, apparently, that he even let Jones have control of the TV advertising market, too!

Hillary also had most of that market, as did Rubio in the primaries. In short: bad argument

Yes I'm not sure if dumping most of his haul into ads was a smart idea. In Alabama it should be pretty clear that a win is going to come from superior turnout. I mean for his almost complete air dominance, what does he have to show for it - a polling trend back to Moore?

What choice did he have?

Arguably Alabama has one of the weakest and most decimated Grass-Roots County/Municipal level Democratic Party structure of almost any State in the Nation....

I mean, it's not like you want to spend a ton of money trying to entice Liberal Democratic college kids from the North to come out and canvas and go door to door trying to relate to your average 'Bama persuadable voter.

The Democratic Party should have invested in Alabama quite some time back, as should have been the case as part of a 50 State strategy....

Lack of grassroots organizing and campaign databases over a few decades, leaves little choice but stumping, local media coverage, and the air war....

Hell, even in overwhelmingly Republican Country in Montgomery County Texas (73-23 Trump), a major Suburban/Exurban County outside of Houston not that many Miles from where I lived not long back, there was a more vibrant and active Democratic Party than there is in most of Alabama, outside of Jefferson County and a few Democratic Cities such as Mobile and Tuscaloosa, throw in some other larger Cities such as Huntsville, etc....

Do we know that his campaign hasn't invested money into normal type GOTV activities, many of which are arguably relatively inexpensive???

Still harder to mobilize a base at the last minute, when likely the campaign didn't have the resources to invest in a major experienced Pro earlier in the race, that would have been able to prioritize traditional GOTV methods, versus spending your last minute windfalls on expensive ads (Iron Bowl springs to mind)....

IDK.... I don't see the Jones campaign to blame here, but rather they become flush with last minute capitol investment after the Moore Sexual Assault stories broke, and needed to try to invest quickly to hit Media markets throughout the State, of which there are quite a few, to attempt to maximize the exposure and impact.

[NOVA Green]

So, why hasn't anyone commented on Moore's reemergence from the cocoon of the bubble from a small tiny City in NE Alabama to speaking at a "Super-Rally" with Steve Bannon in Fairhope, Alabama (Baldwin County)?

As I posted elsewhere, Moore's overall polling numbers look particularly disturbing in Metro Mobile, which means that Baldwin County is likely a particular last ditch effort to minimize Jones margins within these Counties.... Hence flying out Steve Bannon that is more popular than Moore here, as a surrogate to try to maximize 'Pub vote from across the Bay....

All Jones needs to do is win 3/5 regions of Alabama (As defined by the Poll and their regional breakdown) and he will be the next US Senator from Alabama....

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=278477.msg5933746#msg5933746

[NOVA Green]

crap. doug is going down-
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2017/dec/06/doug-jones/jones-ad-wrongly-attacks-moore-sex-crime-case/

Non-Issue....

Typical 'Bama or East 'Tex style dirty knife fight politics....

Jones owns the Air War, too late and too expensive for Moore to respond in kind.

The hardcore 265k Moore voters from the 'Pub Primary are going to vote for him regardless...

The battle is over the Non-Moore 'Pub voters and Indies, many of whom already believe the accusations are credible.

Facts don't necessarily matter as much in a 'Bama style knife fight as reinforcing preexisting images of the opponent among his most vulnerable segment of the electorate....

Honestly, probably a pretty damn good strategy on Jones part to hit this hard late in the game, while the "Crazy Uncle" tries to fact-check the younger members of his family on the content of this ad, there is already a baked in perception among White Female voters in the largest Metro areas in the State that these allegations are most likely correct.

10-Love   Jones