Alabama Megathread 2: Thou Shall Not Touch Teenage Girls

[GeorgiaModerate]

Would it be reasonable to expect Moore to actually stay put in the face of all these accusations and evidence of his creepiness coming to light? I mean we already seem past the usual line where politicians would resign. Now I feel like any day I could expect to wake up to "Moore drops out" followed shortly by "Alabama court replaces Moore on ballot with generic Republican"

How could they do that, i.e. what would be the legal justification?  I don't see that there is one.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Limbaugh's defense of Moore: he was a Democrat at the time.  

http://thehill.com/homenews/media/360346-limbaugh-moore-was-a-democrat-at-time-of-sexual-misconduct-allegations

You can't make this stuff up.  Every day I become more inclined to believe we're living in a badly-written novel.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Someone is making fake robocalls in Alabama claiming to be a WaPo reporter seeking damaging info on Moore for money.  Details here

[GeorgiaModerate]

After Virginia, how can anyone here think that one poll vindicates their opinion?  Wait for the results before you claim victory, people.  If they prove you right, then you were right.

[GeorgiaModerate]

In Ala, do any write in candidates have to declare and qualify?

My reading of the Alabama election laws is that they do not have to.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Moore has finally come up with something reasonable to say:

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When both sides hate you, it should be a clue.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Danny Tarkanian (NV GOP Senate candidate) continues to support Moore.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Looks like Hannity has had enough.  He's given Moore 24 hours to fully explain the inconsistencies in his story, or Moore needs to withdraw.

[GeorgiaModerate]

538's discussion of various possible outcomes of this race

(Short take: they're all bad for the GOP, but some of them are worse than others.)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Holy sh.... https://www.politico.com/story/2017/11/15/roy-moore-doug-jones-poll-244937

The NRSC is not exactly an unbiased observer here.  Huge if true, but I'll wait to see if there are similar results from other pollsters.

[GeorgiaModerate]

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Interestingly, Kyle Kondik said they were already making this move even before the NRSC poll came out.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I don't doubt the NRSC poll at all, but there must be some motive behind it. Why else would they release an internal with their ca didate down double digits? To push Moore out? Even so, he can't be replaced on the ballot, and they also added that the results with Sessions as a write-ins are bad, so... very weird.

Maybe they do just want him to lose. They take the L and are favored in 2020.

I think this would be the best (as in least bad) outcome for them.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Moore's holding a press conference in Birmingham at 5pm (CST, I assume).  Any predictions?

[GeorgiaModerate]

That sound you hear is Moore circling the wagons...right around the drain.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I listened to the "press conference" (can it be called that if they don't take any questions from the press?) on WSB radio in Atlanta.  After it concluded, they went into Eric Erickson's talk show.  He was practically ROFL at how bad it was.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Apologies if this has already been posted, but the thread is moving so fast it's hard to keep up. 

Ivanka Trump on Moore:

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[GeorgiaModerate]

If Jones wins this, will it be the worst case in modern times of a party blowing a safe Senate election?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Moore's lawyer, Trenton Garmon, has quite the history.  He was disbarred by the Alabama Bar Association in 2014.  The reason:

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The Alabama Lawyer, September 2014 (page 339, the rightmost column)

Edit: if that link doesn't work for you try this (where I first saw it): https://twitter.com/grantstern/status/930951901348319232

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ivey shoots down the crazy suggestion to have Strange resign and call a new special election:

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[GeorgiaModerate]

It's clear at this point that the next senator will be either Jones or Moore.  There are no other realistic options.  I still think that Jones winning is a less bad option for the GOP in the long run.

[GeorgiaModerate]

You know what I’m not buying this new poll the reason is because.....

It has Jeff Sessions and trump at worse approval ratings then Doug Jones,there is no way Jeff Sessions is at only
51-40 approval.

I mean, there's really no reason to dislike Jones other than him being a Democrat. He probably also has some cred for prosecuting those KKK members.

True but that still doesn’t explain about the meh approval rating of Jeff Sessions.

Trump and Sessions have been at odds over Sessions recusing himself from the Russia investigation.  This may have some spillover effect.  The most partisan Trump fans may not view Sessions that favorably, and vice versa.  That would make these numbers quite plausible.

[GeorgiaModerate]

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Is this the first disavowal of Moore by an in-state Republican organization?

[GeorgiaModerate]

How about taking the Supreme Court discussion to another thread?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Is handwriting analysis actually an objective science? I assume that any expert hired by Moore would build a case that the writing is fake, while anyone hired by Allred would build a case finding it valid. Signatures waver in minor ways. Ultimately people will make up their own minds on the plausibility that someone would fake this particular inscription in the yearbook in these circumstances.

Is there some other forensic analysis that could be done?  For example, can it be shown whether all the ink is the same age?  If some of it is much newer, then that part is almost certainly forged.  If it's all about 40 years old, then it's almost certainly authentic.  (Anyone who claims that it was forged 40 years ago should be ignored.  That's just ridiculous; there would be no motive for such a thing.)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Breitbart has a story that Nance's stepson says she is a liar.

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2017/11/16/exclusive-stepson-of-roy-moore-accuser-accusations-one-hundred-percent-a-lie/

I know it is Breitbart.  But it is one more reason that the yearbook needs to be analyzed.

It seems the "different" ink color was only an optical illusion.
Picture from the conservative Washington Examiner. Same ink color.

[img snip]

Right. So you think that the one showing the inks to be different is the one that's an optical illusion? Try reading this thread and do try using your brain.

https://twitter.com/ThomasWictor/status/930879809919467520

Lol, if it was a forgery why on Earth would the forger use two different inks.

A forger would know that using two different inks would look so much like a forgery that nobody would ever believe a forger would be that dumb, and that it must therefore be real. So, in order to make it look more real, the forger used two different inks. If it looked real, everyone would think it was fake.

I see they've gotten to Castro.