Alabama Megathread 2: Thou Shall Not Touch Teenage Girls

[Anna Komnene]

I honestly do not see why Mitch wouldn't expel Moore if he won. He is a massive stain on the GOP brand and the kind of Senator who is prone to grandstanding and general disruption. He's just not reliable and is a drag on their party. More importantly though, booting him out of the Senate wouldn't be painful. Alabama is not going to rebel in any electorally significant way, if at all.

I don't know. You don't think those Moore supporters in Alabama would be pissed about the Senate telling them you know what, no thanks on your candidate? I think they would be. I'm not sure what they could do, but I guess they could make life difficult for the "establishment."

[Anna Komnene]

I honestly do not see why Mitch wouldn't expel Moore if he won. He is a massive stain on the GOP brand and the kind of Senator who is prone to grandstanding and general disruption. He's just not reliable and is a drag on their party. More importantly though, booting him out of the Senate wouldn't be painful. Alabama is not going to rebel in any electorally significant way, if at all.

I don't know. You don't think those Moore supporters in Alabama would be pissed about the Senate telling them you know what, no thanks on your candidate? I think they would be. I'm not sure what they could do, but I guess they could make life difficult for the "establishment."

Well I do think a lot of diehard Moore supporters would be pissed, but Alabama is so polarized and deeply Republican that it can absorb a lot of temporary partisan rebellion. However for as mad as they might get, I just don't think most of them would try to take that out on the party by voting for a Democrat, because, well, Democrats are EVIL BABY KILLING SATAN WORSHIPPERS!

Maybe not but they could primary Republican incumbents or rebel with write-in campaigns like they did with Martha Roby last year and knocked her under 50% of the vote. That could have sent a democrat to Washington if enough people did it.

[Anna Komnene]

What a ridiculous argument. If that were the case, every special election ever scheduled would be rescheduled just because the placeholder died or resigned! No matter all the people who voted in the primary or all the investment that went into holding the election, printing the ballots, and counting the ballots. Not to mention all the people that donated to the various candidates. That makes no sense at all!

[Anna Komnene]

"Oh wow - a GOP Governor decided not to engage in a blatantly unconstitutional overthrow of government and the voting process! Huge FF!"

Tbf, people in the GOP keep throwing crazy ideas at her, and she keeps rejecting them. No guarantees that another governor would do the same. Credit where it's due I guess.

[Anna Komnene]

I mean even if it is forged (and I've not seen any conclusive evidence of this), there's no doubt that Moore harassed and stalked teenage girls repeatedly while both ADA and DA, and there's no denying that he was banned from his local mall over his conduct. While he may not have done anything technically illegal (though I believe the women who accuse him of attempted rape), that doesn't make him eligible for the US Senate.

I do wish Jones were a bit more moderate though - there would be a much better chance of an all-out embrace of his candidacy by Republicans like Collins, Murkowski, Gardner, and probably even McConnell after a point if he were pro-life and in the Heitkamp-Manchin wing of the party. Jones still is no better than even money imo, however, and even in the event he wins I see no real future for him as a senator from Alabama.

Three full years as a United States Senator isn't exactly small potatoes. And even if he loses in 2020, there would be a lot of new opportunities for him, whether in government or something else.

[Anna Komnene]

Most media endorsed Hillary too...and in Missouri, it went to Koster...

Wow I guess AL.com did actually endorse Clinton in 2016. But Jones still needs good turnout in the Birmingham area to be able to win, so it should help at least a little.

[Anna Komnene]

FWIW (basically nothing!), my friend went home to Alabama for Thanksgiving and said she basically only saw Doug Jones signs in every neighborhood she drove through, including very Republican suburbs.

Remind her to get an absentee ballot if she supports Jones.

[Anna Komnene]

If Jones wins, it’ll be a narrow victory. I imagine there’ll be some sort of legal challenge and, whether there is or not, the process of certification will suddenly find itself encountering all sorts of holdups and snags. Jones may not be seated before the midterms (if Merrick Garland could be kept off SCOTUS for a year - effectively for ever - anything is doable).

Tin foil hat much? If the margin is less than 0.5% there will be an automatic recount. If not, there won't be and the winner will be certified like any other election.