AL-JMC: DOUG +4

[Kamala]

If Doug wins, and then loses in 2020, he should become DNC chair or some other position of power. He’d be a rockstar.

[President Johnson]

If Jones wins this race then the democrats have a real good chance of retaking both chambers of Congress in 2018. Trump could become a lame duck within two years of his presidency. Not saying he isn’t already weak and powerless as hell.

Yeah, but that doesn't mean we're any step closer to beating him in 2020. See Truman, Ike, Clinton and Obama (although I don't want to compare the Donald to them). Especially Trump could use a Democratic congress as excuse for getting zero legislation done and fire his base up.

If Doug wins, and then loses in 2020, he should become DNC chair or some other position of power. He’d be a rockstar.

Attorney General under the next Democratic president.

[Canis]

If Jones does manage to win, he shouldn't even waste his time on reelection. Trump or Pence on the ballot would swamp him, even if he was running against a KKK wizard. Hell the only reason he has a chance of winning in Alabama now is because his opponent is a PEDOPHILE, and the pedophile might STILL win.

Agreed if Doug wins he should not seek reelection because its obvious he would lose reelection

[President Johnson]

If Jones does manage to win, he shouldn't even waste his time on reelection. Trump or Pence on the ballot would swamp him, even if he was running against a KKK wizard. Hell the only reason he has a chance of winning in Alabama now is because his opponent is a PEDOPHILE, and the pedophile might STILL win.

That would probably improve the GOP margin and do better than an Establishment Republican ala Paul Ryan, Mitt Romney or Bob Corker. LOL

[Pericles]

29% more likely to support Moore in light of recent allegations. Cool.

IceSpear was right.

To be fair it's probably them getting angry about 'WaPo/liberal/McConnell witchunt' not actually endorsing pedophilia.

[JA]

Rating Change: Likely R --> Lean R.

Agreed. Until there's more corroboration of a Jones lead (that remains consistent), this race is still Moore's to lose.

[BuckeyeNut]

Jones need to be in Montgomery/Birmingham/Huntsville/Mobile and the Black Belt relentlessly over the next few weeks.

Jones has been constantly campaigning across the entire state. I've got to give it to him - he's pretty smart and has a lot of stamina.

He did hit Mobile with John Lewis recently. And Jones prosecuting the church bombers should give him a lot of goodwill in Birmingham.

[Blackacre]

WOOHOOO!!!

I expected this to happen tbh, this is why I have the race as pure tossup

[GlobeSoc]

He should run for re-elex if the environment grows to democratic realignment tier, but not otherwise. If  it reaches that point, all bets are off on partisan behavior throughout the country.

Also, those Dothan #s are fantastic

[Matty]

If by the work of God Jones does win, tax reform is dead.

Moore went on record saying he would vote against tax reform. If anything, Jones is more likely to vote yes than moore was.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Not really sure Jones is in the lead but Huntsville look concerning. I know the area has been attracting STEM graduates in the state but this poll incline that Republican may have trouble in Huntsville further down the road.

[KingSweden]

He should run for re-elex if the environment grows to democratic realignment tier, but not otherwise. If  it reaches that point, all bets are off on partisan behavior throughout the country.

Also, those Dothan #s are fantastic

Do you know why Dothan and the Wiregrass overall has been the most GOP-friendly part of Bama for so long?

[GeorgiaModerate]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Trump approval in the current poll is 52/41.  In their previous poll (Moore+8) it was 51/41.

[Skill and Chance]

If by the work of God Jones does win, tax reform is dead.

Moore went on record saying he would vote against tax reform. If anything, Jones is more likely to vote yes than moore was.

True.  I think Jones would be another vote to cut a deal with Manchin, Collins, Heitkamp, Murkowski, Heller et al. that would cut most corporate and individual income taxes while raising them a bit for the 1%.

The more interesting scenario is if Jones wins and a pro-choice Justice leaves SCOTUS in 2018.  Jones is uncompromising on abortion, and between him, Collins and Murkowski, there would appear to be a 51/49 pro-choice majority in the Senate to block anyone known to be pro-life from taking the vacant seat and overturning Roe.

[Skill and Chance]

If Jones wins this race then the democrats have a real good chance of retaking both chambers of Congress in 2018. Trump could become a lame duck within two years of his presidency. Not saying he isn’t already weak and powerless as hell.

Yeah, but that doesn't mean we're any step closer to beating him in 2020. See Truman, Ike, Clinton and Obama (although I don't want to compare the Donald to them). Especially Trump could use a Democratic congress as excuse for getting zero legislation done and fire his base up.

If Doug wins, and then loses in 2020, he should become DNC chair or some other position of power. He’d be a rockstar.

Attorney General under the next Democratic president.

Yes, if he wins, I think a top-tier Cabinet position in the next Democratic administration is his future.  No point in seeking reelection in AL with Trump at the top of the ticket.  If this were GA or even MS, that might be worth trying, but AL is just a different story.

As for Trump's reelection prospects, I am convinced that a Dem House after 2018 would only help him because it would give him a chance to be the Republican version of Bill Clinton on economic issues while holding his ground on social/cultural conservatism (which seems to be where his heart is on the issues).  However, a Dem Senate after 2018 is a whole different ballgame, particularly if it looks likely to remain in Dem hands for the rest of his presidency, because the "but pro-life judges" voters who appear to have saved his campaign in 2016 no longer have an incentive to hold their nose and turn out for him if a Dem senate will block the pro-life judges anyway.

[mvd10]

If by the work of God Jones does win, tax reform is dead.

As if Moore would vote for any remotely realistic tax bill.

[Skill and Chance]

If by the work of God Jones does win, tax reform is dead.

As if Moore would vote for any remotely realistic tax bill.

Yeah, as I was saying, the more interesting scenario is Jones wins and Justice Kennedy retires in 2018.  Trump's nominee would have to get past Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski.

[ursulahx]

Obvious outlier. Call me back if it’s still Jones +4 in early December. Just have a sad feeling the controversy will be defused by then.

[IceSpear]

29% more likely to support Moore in light of recent allegations. Cool.

IceSpear was right.

Actually, I never said that the pedophilia would help him, just that he would still definitely win. I thought it would probably make it closer though. I'm pretty sure all the people who said it would help him were joking. And all of those 29% were obviously Moore supporters already no matter what, which is why "more likely vs. less likely" questions are dumb.

[IceSpear]

If Doug wins, and then loses in 2020, he should become DNC chair or some other position of power. He’d be a rockstar.

He might as well run for president, since it's not like he'd have a chance in hell of being re-elected.

[IceSpear]

Jones need to be in Montgomery/Birmingham/Huntsville/Mobile and the Black Belt relentlessly over the next few weeks.

Jones has been constantly campaigning across the entire state. I've got to give it to him - he's pretty smart and has a lot of stamina.

He did hit Mobile with John Lewis recently. And Jones prosecuting the church bombers should give him a lot of goodwill in Birmingham.

If Jones wants to win any white votes, campaigning with John Lewis isn't very smart.

[Pericles]

Jones need to be in Montgomery/Birmingham/Huntsville/Mobile and the Black Belt relentlessly over the next few weeks.

Jones has been constantly campaigning across the entire state. I've got to give it to him - he's pretty smart and has a lot of stamina.

He did hit Mobile with John Lewis recently. And Jones prosecuting the church bombers should give him a lot of goodwill in Birmingham.

If Jones wants to win any white votes, campaigning with John Lewis isn't very smart.

He needs to ramp up black turnout to win.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Obvious outlier. Call me back if it’s still Jones +4 in early December. Just have a sad feeling the controversy will be defused by then.

I could be wrong, but I have a feeling this is only going to get worse for Moore. It appears he has a history of this kind of behavior and I believe more women will come forward before election day.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Jones need to be in Montgomery/Birmingham/Huntsville/Mobile and the Black Belt relentlessly over the next few weeks.

Jones has been constantly campaigning across the entire state. I've got to give it to him - he's pretty smart and has a lot of stamina.

He did hit Mobile with John Lewis recently. And Jones prosecuting the church bombers should give him a lot of goodwill in Birmingham.

If Jones wants to win any white votes, campaigning with John Lewis isn't very smart.

He needs to ramp up black turnout to win.

He's going to need around 30% of the white vote to win, AT LEAST, though.

[IceSpear]

Jones need to be in Montgomery/Birmingham/Huntsville/Mobile and the Black Belt relentlessly over the next few weeks.

Jones has been constantly campaigning across the entire state. I've got to give it to him - he's pretty smart and has a lot of stamina.

He did hit Mobile with John Lewis recently. And Jones prosecuting the church bombers should give him a lot of goodwill in Birmingham.

If Jones wants to win any white votes, campaigning with John Lewis isn't very smart.

He needs to ramp up black turnout to win.

Yeah, but that alone won't win it for him, or even get him anywhere close.

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=1&year=2008&f=0&off=0&elect=0