AL-JMC: DOUG +4

[DrScholl]

Everyone is shouting outlier, but there have been at least a couple of other polls taken post revelations that have shown Moore seemingly having lost ground. Plus, Moore was already the weakest statewide Republican and this gives a lot of his Republican detractors a big reason to sit out.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Jones need to be in Montgomery/Birmingham/Huntsville/Mobile and the Black Belt relentlessly over the next few weeks.

Jones has been constantly campaigning across the entire state. I've got to give it to him - he's pretty smart and has a lot of stamina.

He did hit Mobile with John Lewis recently. And Jones prosecuting the church bombers should give him a lot of goodwill in Birmingham.

If Jones wants to win any white votes, campaigning with John Lewis isn't very smart.

Mobile County is 1/3 black. He needs to squeeze every Democratic leaning vote out of there to keep it close. He needs like 47-48 percent of the vote here. HRC got 42 percent with obviously depressed interest by black voters.

[Xing]

While 46% for Jones is possible, I don't see how he hits 50%.

[libertpaulian]

Jones need to be in Montgomery/Birmingham/Huntsville/Mobile and the Black Belt relentlessly over the next few weeks.

Jones has been constantly campaigning across the entire state. I've got to give it to him - he's pretty smart and has a lot of stamina.

He did hit Mobile with John Lewis recently. And Jones prosecuting the church bombers should give him a lot of goodwill in Birmingham.

If Jones wants to win any white votes, campaigning with John Lewis isn't very smart.

Mobile County is 1/3 black. He needs to squeeze every Democratic leaning vote out of there to keep it close. He needs like 47-48 percent of the vote here. HRC got 42 percent with obviously depressed interest by black voters.

I'd say to barely eke it out, 30% of the white vote and Obama-levels of minority turnout will be key.

[Mr. Smith]

While 46% for Jones is possible, I don't see how he hits 50%.

Better to hope that a third party gets Moore down to 45% and gives it Jones.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

[Rookie Yinzer]

Jones need to be in Montgomery/Birmingham/Huntsville/Mobile and the Black Belt relentlessly over the next few weeks.

Jones has been constantly campaigning across the entire state. I've got to give it to him - he's pretty smart and has a lot of stamina.

He did hit Mobile with John Lewis recently. And Jones prosecuting the church bombers should give him a lot of goodwill in Birmingham.

If Jones wants to win any white votes, campaigning with John Lewis isn't very smart.

Mobile County is 1/3 black. He needs to squeeze every Democratic leaning vote out of there to keep it close. He needs like 47-48 percent of the vote here. HRC got 42 percent with obviously depressed interest by black voters.

I'd say to barely eke it out, 30% of the white vote and Obama-levels of minority turnout will be key.

Counting on low Republican turnout and white business people voting for Jones to not taint business interests to keep the margins in Mobile closer than normal.

[Young Conservative]

Jones need to be in Montgomery/Birmingham/Huntsville/Mobile and the Black Belt relentlessly over the next few weeks.

Jones has been constantly campaigning across the entire state. I've got to give it to him - he's pretty smart and has a lot of stamina.

He did hit Mobile with John Lewis recently. And Jones prosecuting the church bombers should give him a lot of goodwill in Birmingham.

If Jones wants to win any white votes, campaigning with John Lewis isn't very smart.

Mobile County is 1/3 black. He needs to squeeze every Democratic leaning vote out of there to keep it close. He needs like 47-48 percent of the vote here. HRC got 42 percent with obviously depressed interest by black voters.

Sorry, but to win Jones needs to outright win Mobile- not just keep it close.

[Cactus Jack]

So what does Jones need in the key counties?
55% in Mobile, 55% in Tuscaloosa, 55% in Madison, 65% in Jefferson, 35% in Baldwin, 35% in Shelby, and 70% in Montgomery with depressed turnout in rurals?

Sounds right. The key to Jones' victory doesn't so much lie in flipping the votes of far-right Alabama Republicans, but in hammering Moore in such a way that they just don't vote at all.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Jones need to be in Montgomery/Birmingham/Huntsville/Mobile and the Black Belt relentlessly over the next few weeks.

Jones has been constantly campaigning across the entire state. I've got to give it to him - he's pretty smart and has a lot of stamina.

He did hit Mobile with John Lewis recently. And Jones prosecuting the church bombers should give him a lot of goodwill in Birmingham.

If Jones wants to win any white votes, campaigning with John Lewis isn't very smart.

Mobile County is 1/3 black. He needs to squeeze every Democratic leaning vote out of there to keep it close. He needs like 47-48 percent of the vote here. HRC got 42 percent with obviously depressed interest by black voters.

Sorry, but to win Jones needs to outright win Mobile- not just keep it close.

Yeah I didn't realize Bob Vance won Mobile County in the 2012 Supreme Court race. He still needs those votes though and there were many white people at the event from what I saw. So John Lewis hurting him is inaccurate.

ETA: Why are the Supreme Court races in AL so close? Sue Bell Cobb won her race. Deborah Bell (D) barely lost in a 50/50 race and Bob Vance (D) came within 3 points of Roy Moore.

[GlobeSoc]

I can deduce based on the cross-tabs that Jones is actually making pretty strong gains among the WWC voters. If it seems like Jones is on track to win before election day, watch out for a JBE-ish coalition going for Jones on election night.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I think this will be a McCaskill/Akin situation.

[Blackacre]

I think this will be a McCaskill/Akin situation.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I think this will be a McCaskill/Akin situation.

God, do I wish, but MO is a much different and more elastic state, not too comparable.

[Cactus Jack]

I think this will be a McCaskill/Akin situation.

God, do I wish, but MO is a much different and more elastic state, not too comparable.

Missouri is getting there, in fairness. I doubt if a Democrat will ever be able to pull off McCaskill's margin of victory against any Alabama Republican, but I could actually see Jones beating Moore by the margin posted in this poll - perhaps even more.

Also, what PNM said. Akin was an insensitive idiot, but Moore is an actual pedophile. In terms of severity, their wrongdoings are in entirely different zipcodes.

[UncleSam]

The difference with the Akin situation is this can be spun as false - Akin made those comments then tried to defend them.

[Tartarus Sauce]

As for Trump's reelection prospects, I am convinced that a Dem House after 2018 would only help him because it would give him a chance to be the Republican version of Bill Clinton on economic issues while holding his ground on social/cultural conservatism (which seems to be where his heart is on the issues). However, a Dem Senate after 2018 is a whole different ballgame, particularly if it looks likely to remain in Dem hands for the rest of his presidency, because the "but pro-life judges" voters who appear to have saved his campaign in 2016 no longer have an incentive to hold their nose and turn out for him if a Dem senate will block the pro-life judges anyway.

No actually, it wouldn't, because a Democratic House would go into overdrive on investigations that uncover even more dirt. Unlike Bill Clinton, Trump isn't competent or shrewd enough to triangulate against his opponents and he emboldens his opposition at nearly every turn because he's a clueless idiot that doesn't learn from his mistakes.

[Adam Griffin]

So I took two relatively recent elections where the AL electorate demonstrated two relatively unique voting styles (its old-school, Dixiecrat voting tendencies and its heavily-nationalized presidential voting tendencies), and created universal swing maps for each election (2012 Supreme Court & 2016 Presidential).

Under normal circumstances, I'm not very comfortable with doing universal swing. However, considering the differences between these two elections and general restrictions that any Democrat faces in a path to victory statewide, I think it's more accurate than most if you combine the two universal swing maps to produce a composite map. Here it is:

The only part I'd be bearish about from a Democratic standpoint is NW Alabama.

[Sir Mohamed]

I believe it, when I see it. It's still AL after all.

[Karpatsky]

Since that SC result I've always thought that the more these polls are publicized, the less likely a Jones win actually is. He's depending on low turnout among evangelicals, and a 'Devilcrat' win in good ol' Alabama being on the front page of the Washington Post is not going to help.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Since that SC result I've always thought that the more these polls are publicized, the less likely a Jones win actually is. He's depending on low turnout among evangelicals, and a 'Devilcrat' win in good ol' Alabama being on the front page of the Washington Post is not going to help.

That is an interesting point. Ossoff's race was definitely nationalized. This race definitely has the nation's attention, but I'm not sure how nationalized it is. The issues that the race focuses on have been: "Is Moore too extreme?" and now, "Do we want to elect a pedophile?" Sure, it's a national race, so there's going to be some discussion of national issues, but since the Moore-Strange runoff, it seems to have been focused on Roy Moore's personality. GA-6 seemed much more issues based to me. I have no doubt that it would have been a snoozefest if Strange had won.

I didn't really follow the SC-5 race, but it definitely went under peoples' radars. There aren't any other elections happening now (why didn't Ivey call it for November 7th?), so that's going to attract some attention.

Jones should definitely how for low turnout among evangelicals. I feel like that's going to be the real indicator. Even if he can't persuade them to vote for him, if they can be persuaded to just stay at home or write someone else in, that's a vote taken from Moore.

Somehow a senate race in Alabama has become one of the more (Moore?) interesting elections this year.