CA-GOV 2018: County maps of D vs. D races

[I’m not Stu]

What would county maps look like for these potential D vs. D races?

Races:
Gavin Newsom vs. John Chiang
Gavin Newsom vs. Antonio Villaraigosa
Gavin Newsom vs. Delaine Eastin
John Chiang vs. Antonio Villairaigosa
John Chiang vs. Delaine Eastin
Antonio Villaraigosa vs. Delaine Eastin

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Gavin Newsom (red) vs Antonio Villaraigosa (yellow)

Villaraigosa most competitive in Inland California & among anti-Newsom Republicans (Those that choose not to sit out), but he gets crushed in Northern California & coastal regions. Newsom wins LA County 55-45 and under-performs Harris' Senate win by 1-2%

[I’m not Stu]

Gavin Newsom (red) vs Antonio Villaraigosa (yellow)

Villaraigosa most competitive in Inland California & among anti-Newsom Republicans (Those that choose not to sit out), but he gets crushed in Northern California & coastal regions. Newsom wins LA County 55-45 and under-performs Harris' Senate win by 1-2%

What about these other races?

Races:
Gavin Newsom vs. John Chiang
Gavin Newsom vs. Delaine Eastin
John Chiang vs. Antonio Villairaigosa
John Chiang vs. Delaine Eastin
Antonio Villaraigosa vs. Delaine Eastin

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Newsom/Chiang: More of the same, Newsom 57-43. I can see Chiang carrying a few more rural counties up north, maybe even winning OC and San Diego. Chiang has gone through a statewide campaign before, so I think he can make it slightly more competitive than Villaraigosa.

I don't know much about Eastin so not sure how she'd do

[I’m not Stu]

Newsom/Chiang: More of the same, Newsom 57-43. I can see Chiang carrying a few more rural counties up north, maybe even winning OC and San Diego. Chiang has gone through a statewide campaign before, so I think he can make it slightly more competitive than Villaraigosa.

I don't know much about Eastin so not sure how she'd do

Eastin has very little name recognition outside the Bay Area. Eastin is practically unknown in Southern California. Eastin is far to the left of all the other Democrats and would never receive establishment support. The other 3 have far more name recognition.

[Mr. Smith]

Gavin Newsom (red) vs Antonio Villaraigosa (yellow)

Villaraigosa most competitive in Inland California & among anti-Newsom Republicans (Those that choose not to sit out), but he gets crushed in Northern California & coastal regions. Newsom wins LA County 55-45 and under-performs Harris' Senate win by 1-2%

Modoc voting for Elitist Pretty-Boy Newsom?  I don't see it!

[IceSpear]

Gavin Newsom (red) vs Antonio Villaraigosa (yellow)

Villaraigosa most competitive in Inland California & among anti-Newsom Republicans (Those that choose not to sit out), but he gets crushed in Northern California & coastal regions. Newsom wins LA County 55-45 and under-performs Harris' Senate win by 1-2%

Modoc voting for Elitist Pretty-Boy Newsom?  I don't see it!

It voted for elitist pretty girl Harris. Also, he's white.

[I’m not Stu]

Gavin Newsom (red) vs Antonio Villaraigosa (yellow)

Villaraigosa most competitive in Inland California & among anti-Newsom Republicans (Those that choose not to sit out), but he gets crushed in Northern California & coastal regions. Newsom wins LA County 55-45 and under-performs Harris' Senate win by 1-2%

A D vs. D race can be unpredictable. Who knows what GOP turnout would be like. Would Republican turnout be depressed, or would Republicans have normal turnout and reluctantly vote?

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Modoc voting for Elitist Pretty-Boy Newsom?  I don't see it!

I'm less confident about those northernmost counties, but it'll be a choice between having to vote for Beautiful Glorious Newsom or a democrat unknown to anyone north of Bakersfield (In the case of Villairigosa). Pretty much a guessing game on who doesn't sit out, but I can see Newsom getting around 55% in that corner due to name recognition (Good or bad). Depends on how much Villairigosa campaigns outside of the Inland Empire & Central Valley

How can I make those county maps of states?

Edited it through Paint. Used a blank county map like this:

[I’m not Stu]

Newsom vs. Chiang

[I’m not Stu]

Newsom vs. Eastin
Note: Eastin has very little name recognition outside the Bay Area and Newsom would easily win the GOP vote.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Gavin Newsom (red) vs Antonio Villaraigosa (yellow)

Villaraigosa most competitive in Inland California & among anti-Newsom Republicans (Those that choose not to sit out), but he gets crushed in Northern California & coastal regions. Newsom wins LA County 55-45 and under-performs Harris' Senate win by 1-2%

A D vs. D race can be unpredictable. Who knows what GOP turnout would be like. Would Republican turnout be depressed, or would Republicans have normal turnout and reluctantly vote?

Even if it's D v D for the gubernatorial and senatorial races, as long as there's some red meat in the ballot measures, conservatives will still show up (which is good for some of the more vulnerable House members). However, just because they show up and vote doesn't mean that they won't just leave a field blank. Large numbers of conservative voters did just that in the 2016 senate race, which was D v D.

Numbers from Atlas:

Modoc President 3,843
Modoc Senate 2,575

Lassen President 10,699
Lassen Senate 7,377

There's a clear drop-off in the number of votes cast.

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

I hear that de Leon is considering running against Feinstein. Looking at the map of Newsome's win and exit polling from Harris's win in 2016, it seems like California is trending towards a situation where there are going to be lots of runoffs between the Hispanic democrats and the "every other race" democrat coalition.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I hear that de Leon is considering running against Feinstein. Looking at the map of Newsome's win and exit polling from Harris's win in 2016, it seems like California is trending towards a situation where there are going to be lots of runoffs between the Hispanic democrats and the "every other race" democrat coalition.

You're a little behind. De Leon announced his candidacy a long time ago. But you're right in that California is trending towards a state that mainly holds D vs. D runoffs.

[Sir Mohamed]

Villaraigosa is likely going to win Los Angeles County. Newsom would win overall 54-46%.

[libertpaulian]

Faulconer was wise to sit this one out.  There's no way he has any prayer in the Year of #TheResistance.