Changes in Raw Vote By State
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  Changes in Raw Vote By State
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Author Topic: Changes in Raw Vote By State  (Read 1222 times)
Pennsylvania Deplorable
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« on: November 12, 2017, 06:37:43 PM »

I tend to focus more on the margin of victory as a percentage than the raw vote count, but recently I noticed that Trump actually received more votes than Mitt Romney did in the states of Georgia, Texas, and Arizona which trended democrat in 2016. This got me thinking that maybe the swing came more from democrats mobilizing their base in those states with the prospect of a close vote than them flipping huge numbers of erstwhile republican voters in the suburbs. Likewise, Trump won Wisconsin with less votes than Romney got, suggesting that it had more to do with democrats staying home than crossing over.

I decided to make a list of which states saw improvement for Trump and Clinton in terms of raw vote count. Here it is:

States where Clinton gained and Trump lost: CA, WA, UT, VA, MD, MA
States where both went down: AK, NM, ID, MS, KS, WI
States where both went up: OR, NV, AZ, CO, IL, GA, FL, NC, NY, NJ, TX
States where Trump gained and Clinton lost: MT, WY, ND, SD, NE, MO, OK, AR, LA, AL, TN, KY, WV, SC, IN, OH, MI, MN, IA, PA, DE, CT, VT, RI, NH, ME, HI
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cvparty
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« Reply #1 on: November 12, 2017, 07:43:11 PM »

well not necessarily, keep in mind population growth is also a big factor. those states are growing really fast, so population growth could've been enough to make up for lost overall support. I think it'd be interesting if you also looked at the change in raw vote margin
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bagelman
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« Reply #2 on: November 13, 2017, 12:58:19 PM »



Red: Clinton gain over Trump

Blue: Opposite

Green: Both gain

Yellow: Both lose
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Anzeigenhauptmeister
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« Reply #3 on: November 13, 2017, 03:00:42 PM »

Mississippi still remains the strangest mystery.
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MarkD
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« Reply #4 on: November 13, 2017, 06:26:19 PM »

It's kinda bizarre the Illinois -- Obama's home -- would go up for both. Extremely little population growth.
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Pennsylvania Deplorable
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« Reply #5 on: November 13, 2017, 06:59:41 PM »

It's kinda bizarre the Illinois -- Obama's home -- would go up for both. Extremely little population growth.

Even more so when Wisconsin went down. I'd attribute it to the fact that Chicago's suburbs lean democrat, so their turnout rose to oppose Trump, whereas in the republican Milwaukee suburbs turnout decreased due to lack of enthusiasm for Trump (and may have been boosted by Ryan on the ballot in 2012). Trump gained a lot of votes in rural Illinois, not that it matters.
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bagelman
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« Reply #6 on: November 15, 2017, 02:18:06 PM »

It's kinda bizarre the Illinois -- Obama's home -- would go up for both. Extremely little population growth.

Chicago suburban Republicans went up for Clinton, and they were covered by downstaters strongly swinging for Trump. 2012 had less turnout because "come on, this is Obama's home state, don't bother voting".
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bagelman
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« Reply #7 on: November 15, 2017, 02:18:55 PM »

Mississippi still remains the strangest mystery.

The most racially polarized state in the nation had decreased black turnout for Clinton and a declining population of white Republican voters.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #8 on: November 19, 2017, 02:37:13 AM »

Matches fairly well with the trend map.
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Beet
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« Reply #9 on: November 19, 2017, 03:41:05 AM »



Red: Clinton gain over Trump

Blue: Opposite

Green: Both gain

Yellow: Both lose

DC is red.
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Timothy87
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« Reply #10 on: November 22, 2017, 10:15:16 AM »

New Hampshire is wrong. Should be blue.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #11 on: November 23, 2017, 01:25:51 AM »

Complementing reagente's maps, I made this non-shaded county-level map of the raw vote a few months ago. I could have sworn I posted it here somewhere, but maybe I just posted it on the other forum (right-click and open in new tab for max resolution/legibility of legend):



Counties where Clinton > Obama:


Counties where Trump > Romney:
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