Virginia 2020 County Projection Map

[Oryxslayer]

Since the Democrats surged towards potential control of the Virginia House of Delegates last Tuesday, I have seen a number of discussions diverge into the question of 2020 Redistricting in the commonwealth. With no worse then a coin toss chance at a democratic trifecta from 2019 onwards, Democrats certainly would wish to know what they could do in a state like Virginia. With VPAP being a excellent resource, and census growth data, I whipped this together. Virginia currently does not look to gain a congressional district in 2020, so her districts would be slightly above the national average.

I colored by regions largely to make drawing districts easier since Virginia has the awkward Independent Cities. These regions were based on the VPAP division. Their district allotment is:

NOVA: 3.4053
Chesapeake: 0.3094
Piedmont: 0.9172
Capitol Region: 1.5588
Tidewater Region: 2.072
Southside: 0.9851
Western Virginia: 1.043
Southwestern Virginia: 0.7489

A important thing to note is how much NOVA has grown relative to the state. In 2010, Democratic NOVA (NOVA region minus Fauquier) was allotted a tiny bit over 3 district. In 2020, the same batch of counties should have close an extra third of another District. This growth is headed by Louden which has grwon a whopping 23.38% since 2010! If the Democrats did not have control, and divided government led to a fair map for example, this third could easily be partnered with much of the upper Piedmont to form a new swing seat. If democrats have full control, and the Supreme court does not rule against gerrymandering, Democrats could easily use this third to create another blue seat.

County allotments were found by taking % growth projection from the six yearly intervals available to us presently and averaging it out to eliminate outlier years. This average yearly percent growth was then projected forward for the next four intervals. This, like all projections, has flaws. For Virginia this method might not be the best since many counties were growing during the early intervals and have since started shrinking.

I hope this resource is usable for the many partisan Democrats who now want to lay around and see what they can create their own partisan maps for the future.

[muon2]

Nice work. I use a slightly different method to project the 2020 populations. I take the 2016 estimate (Fv) and compare it to the 2010 census (Pv) using the rate function to get the annual percentage rate based on 6.25 years (N). The extra quarter year is because the census is on Apr 1 and the estimate is from Jul 1. The rate function is mathematically [(Fv/Pv)^(1/N) - 1].

To get the 2020 projection I use a future value based on the 2010 census (Pv), annual percentage rate from above (R) and 10 years (P). The future value is P[(1+R)^N - 1]/R. This method assumes that the average rate of growth from 2010 to 2016 continues until 2020 and it is based on a compounding, not linear formula.

For VA Bedford county needs special treatment. In the 2010 census Bedford city was independent but was dissolved in 2013 and returned to the county. For the 2010 census I use the sum of Bedford county and Bedford city.

If this method is applied to the state as a whole the 2020 population would be 8668.3 K. If it is applied separately to each county and independent city then added up, the population would be 8681.9 K. The difference is due to the fact that the counties are growing at different rates, and this introduces variances compared to the state overall. For redistricting I use the total from the counties so with 11 CDs the population of each would be 789.3 K.

Here is the my list of all counties/independent cities, growth rates and their 2020 projected populations (in thousands):
Accomack County   -0.1%   32.8
Albemarle County   1.2%   111.9
Alleghany County   -0.7%   15.2
Amelia County   0.3%   13.0
Amherst County   -0.4%   31.2
Appomattox County   0.5%   15.8
Arlington County   1.7%   244.7
Augusta County   0.3%   75.8
Bath County   -0.9%   4.3
Bedford County   0.6%   79.9
Bland County   -0.7%   6.3
Botetourt County   0.0%   33.3
Brunswick County   -1.1%   15.6
Buchanan County   -1.3%   21.1
Buckingham County   -0.1%   17.0
Campbell County   0.0%   55.0
Caroline County   0.9%   31.2
Carroll County   -0.3%   29.2
Charles City County   -0.4%   7.0
Charlotte County   -0.6%   11.9
Chesterfield County   1.1%   353.5
Clarke County   0.4%   14.6
Craig County   -0.1%   5.1
Culpeper County   1.1%   52.2
Cumberland County   -0.6%   9.4
Dickenson County   -1.0%   14.4
Dinwiddie County   0.1%   28.2
Essex County   -0.0%   11.1
Fairfax County   0.8%   1174.2
Fauquier County   0.9%   71.5
Floyd County   0.5%   16.0
Fluvanna County   0.4%   26.6
Franklin County   -0.0%   56.0
Frederick County   1.2%   88.3
Giles County   -0.4%   16.6
Gloucester County   0.2%   37.4
Goochland County   0.7%   23.3
Grayson County   -0.4%   14.9
Greene County   0.8%   20.0
Greensville County   -0.7%   11.4
Halifax County   -0.6%   34.3
Hanover County   0.7%   107.2
Henrico County   1.0%   338.8
Henry County   -0.8%   49.9
Highland County   -0.7%   2.2
Isle of Wight County   0.6%   37.4
James City County   1.7%   79.2
King and Queen County   0.5%   7.3
King George County   1.6%   27.5
King William County   0.4%   16.6
Lancaster County   -0.6%   10.7
Lee County   -0.9%   23.4
Loudoun County   3.4%   438.2
Louisa County   1.0%   36.5
Lunenburg County   -0.8%   11.9
Madison County   -0.3%   12.9
Mathews County   -0.4%   8.7
Mecklenburg County   -0.9%   29.8
Middlesex County   -0.3%   10.7
Montgomery County   0.7%   101.2
Nelson County   -0.2%   14.8
New Kent County   2.2%   23.0
Northampton County   -0.3%   12.0
Northumberland County   -0.1%   12.2
Nottoway County   -0.3%   15.4
Orange County   1.0%   36.8
Page County   -0.3%   23.4
Patrick County   -0.5%   17.6
Pittsylvania County   -0.5%   60.6
Powhatan County   0.2%   28.7
Prince Edward County   -0.2%   23.0
Prince George County   0.9%   39.2
Prince William County   2.0%   490.5
Pulaski County   -0.3%   33.8
Rappahannock County   0.0%   7.4
Richmond County   -0.8%   8.5
Roanoke County   0.3%   95.0
Rockbridge County   0.1%   22.4
Rockingham County   0.7%   81.9
Russell County   -0.9%   26.5
Scott County   -0.9%   21.2
Shenandoah County   0.4%   43.9
Smyth County   -0.6%   30.4
Southampton County   -0.4%   17.8
Spotsylvania County   1.2%   138.1
Stafford County   1.8%   154.5
Surry County   -1.2%   6.3
Sussex County   -0.8%   11.2
Tazewell County   -1.1%   40.5
Warren County   0.7%   40.1
Washington County   -0.2%   53.8
Westmoreland County   0.1%   17.7
Wise County   -0.9%   38.0
Wythe County   -0.1%   28.9
York County   0.6%   69.5

Alexandria city 1.7%   166.2
Bristol city   -0.8%   16.5
Buena Vista city   -0.5%   6.3
Charlottesville city   1.2%   49.1
Chesapeake city   1.1%   247.9
Colonial Heights city   0.3%   18.0
Covington city   -1.2%   5.3
Danville city   -0.4%   41.2
Emporia city   -1.8%   5.0
Fairfax city   1.1%   25.2
Falls Church city   2.1%   15.1
Franklin city   -0.5%   8.1
Fredericksburg city   2.5%   31.0
Galax city   -0.6%   6.6
Hampton city   -0.2%   134.2
Harrisonburg city   1.3%   55.7
Hopewell city   0.1%   22.8
Lexington city   0.0%   7.0
Lynchburg city   1.0%   83.1
Manassas city   1.5%   43.8
Manassas Park city   1.8%   17.0
Martinsville city   -0.4%   13.2
Newport News city   0.1%   182.5
Norfolk city   0.2%   246.5
Norton city   -0.4%   3.8
Petersburg city   -0.3%   31.6
Poquoson city   -0.2%   11.9
Portsmouth city   -0.0%   95.1
Radford city   1.0%   18.2
Richmond city   1.4%   235.4
Roanoke city   0.4%   101.3
Salem city   0.5%   26.0
Staunton city   0.4%   24.7
Suffolk city   0.9%   92.2
Virginia Beach city   0.5%   461.6
Waynesboro city   0.7%   22.4
Williamsburg city   1.3%   15.9
Winchester city   0.8%   28.3

[Torie]

Gorgeous map. A+. 

[Oryxslayer]

Nice work. I use a slightly different method to project the 2020 populations. I take the 2016 estimate (Fv) and compare it to the 2010 census (Pv) using the rate function to get the annual percentage rate based on 6.25 years (N). The extra quarter year is because the census is on Apr 1 and the estimate is from Jul 1. The rate function is mathematically [(Fv/Pv)^(1/N) - 1].

To get the 2020 projection I use a future value based on the 2010 census (Pv), annual percentage rate from above (R) and 10 years (P). The future value is P[(1+R)^N - 1]/R. This method assumes that the average rate of growth from 2010 to 2016 continues until 2020 and it is based on a compounding, not linear formula.

For VA Bedford county needs special treatment. In the 2010 census Bedford city was independent but was dissolved in 2013 and returned to the county. For the 2010 census I use the sum of Bedford county and Bedford city.

If this method is applied to the state as a whole the 2020 population would be 8668.3 K. If it is applied separately to each county and independent city then added up, the population would be 8681.9 K. The difference is due to the fact that the counties are growing at different rates, and this introduces variances compared to the state overall. For redistricting I use the total from the counties so with 11 CDs the population of each would be 789.3 K.

Our numbers tend to be pretty much the same - My projections overall see an extra 25K.

Also updated main picture due to a typo.

[jimrtex]

Since the Democrats surged towards potential control of the Virginia House of Delegates last Tuesday, I have seen a number of discussions diverge into the question of 2020 Redistricting in the commonwealth. With no worse then a coin toss chance at a democratic trifecta from 2019 onwards, Democrats certainly would wish to know what they could do in a state like Virginia. With VPAP being a excellent resource, and census growth data, I whipped this together. Virginia currently does not look to gain a congressional district in 2020, so her districts would be slightly above the national average.

These are district populations projected from the 2016 ACS estimates.

1 Virginia          807
2 Virginia          757
3 Virginia          746
4 Virginia          786
5 Virginia          740
6 Virginia          771
7 Virginia          804
8 Virginia          817
9 Virginia          695
10 Virginia         887
11 Virginia         848

These are relative to projected quota of 787K for 2020.

1 Virginia          1.025
2 Virginia          0.962
3 Virginia          0.948
4 Virginia          0.999
5 Virginia          0.940
6 Virginia          0.980
7 Virginia          1.022
8 Virginia          1.037
9 Virginia          0.883
10 Virginia         1.127
11 Virginia         1.078

The 3 NoVA districts: VA-8, VA-10, VA-11 have a population equivalent to 3.242 districts.

VA-6 can take the remainder of the Shenadoah Valley. It doesn't make sense to extend VA-5 into the Washington area, so basically VA-1 gets pushed into the Washington area.

[Oryxslayer]

Since the Democrats surged towards potential control of the Virginia House of Delegates last Tuesday, I have seen a number of discussions diverge into the question of 2020 Redistricting in the commonwealth. With no worse then a coin toss chance at a democratic trifecta from 2019 onwards, Democrats certainly would wish to know what they could do in a state like Virginia. With VPAP being a excellent resource, and census growth data, I whipped this together. Virginia currently does not look to gain a congressional district in 2020, so her districts would be slightly above the national average.

These are district populations projected from the 2016 ACS estimates.

1 Virginia          807
2 Virginia          757
3 Virginia          746
4 Virginia          786
5 Virginia          740
6 Virginia          771
7 Virginia          804
8 Virginia          817
9 Virginia          695
10 Virginia         887
11 Virginia         848

These are relative to projected quota of 787K for 2020.

1 Virginia          1.025
2 Virginia          0.962
3 Virginia          0.948
4 Virginia          0.999
5 Virginia          0.940
6 Virginia          0.980
7 Virginia          1.022
8 Virginia          1.037
9 Virginia          0.883
10 Virginia         1.127
11 Virginia         1.078

The 3 NoVA districts: VA-8, VA-10, VA-11 have a population equivalent to 3.242 districts.

VA-6 can take the remainder of the Shenadoah Valley. It doesn't make sense to extend VA-5 into the Washington area, so basically VA-1 gets pushed into the Washington area.

The problem with this though is you are assuming a minimal change map. I made this resource since partisan dems in the HoD thread, the VA gov thread, and a couple other areas were questioning what would happen if dems got a trifecta (likely). If dems get a trifecta, expect a radical redraw, like North Carolina, Ohio, or PA in 2010. If so, districts are going to get a heavy dem tilt...

Interesting that the extra 1/3 CD in democratic NOVA shows up pretty clearly. The two Democratic seats in NOVA are overpopulated, and the lightning growth in Loudon sticks out. even VA - 01, with only about a half/third of PW is overpopulated. Some of this is probably Hanover and Stafford, though their growth is countering the shrinkage in the Chesapeake.

For those dems out there, I will be coming up with partisan maps soon, followed by fair ones...

[jimrtex]

Since the Democrats surged towards potential control of the Virginia House of Delegates last Tuesday, I have seen a number of discussions diverge into the question of 2020 Redistricting in the commonwealth. With no worse then a coin toss chance at a democratic trifecta from 2019 onwards, Democrats certainly would wish to know what they could do in a state like Virginia. With VPAP being a excellent resource, and census growth data, I whipped this together. Virginia currently does not look to gain a congressional district in 2020, so her districts would be slightly above the national average.

These are district populations projected from the 2016 ACS estimates.

1 Virginia          807
2 Virginia          757
3 Virginia          746
4 Virginia          786
5 Virginia          740
6 Virginia          771
7 Virginia          804
8 Virginia          817
9 Virginia          695
10 Virginia         887
11 Virginia         848

These are relative to projected quota of 787K for 2020.

1 Virginia          1.025
2 Virginia          0.962
3 Virginia          0.948
4 Virginia          0.999
5 Virginia          0.940
6 Virginia          0.980
7 Virginia          1.022
8 Virginia          1.037
9 Virginia          0.883
10 Virginia         1.127
11 Virginia         1.078

The 3 NoVA districts: VA-8, VA-10, VA-11 have a population equivalent to 3.242 districts.

VA-6 can take the remainder of the Shenadoah Valley. It doesn't make sense to extend VA-5 into the Washington area, so basically VA-1 gets pushed into the Washington area.

The problem with this though is you are assuming a minimal change map.

The assumption that I made is that population change will continue to occur at the same rate.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

A Dem Gerrymander would want to flip VA-10 and hold VA-4. Black Democrats will want to maintain VA-3 and VA-4 as districts electing blacks. A GOP gerrymander would seek to shore up VA-10, and reflip VA-4.

Comstock won by 23K votes. 19K of that margin came from the Shenadoah Valley. A Dem gerrymander and a good government gerrymander would strip that from an overpopulated VA-10. Another 5K came from Prince William, that can also be stripped.

Pulling VA-1 further into the Nova area, pulls it out of the Richmond area. Hanover can be used via VA-7 to fill the deficits of VA-5 and VA-9.

If VA-1 has all of Fauquier, Prince William, and Stafford it is identifiable as a Nova district. If Virginia gets a 12th district in 2030, then the conversion can be completed.

[muon2]

The courts will probably not look favorably on a Dem gerrymander that cracks the black population of SE VA. As the recent congressional case and subsequent election show, a district does not have to be 50% to elect the black candidate of choice, but it can't be too low that it would likely elect a white Dem. A rough guide is probably to check that the black population is a substantial majority of the Dem vote in the primary.

To help, here is a map showing the 2010 BVAP colored as follows:
yellow 25.0-33.3%
lime 33.4-39.9%
green 40.0%-49.9%
dark green > 50.0%



This is the full table of counties with the 2010 BVAP% and the 2015 5-year estimate of black%.

.Accomack County   26.9%   28.7%
.Albemarle County   9.4%   9.4%
.Alleghany County   4.5%   5.3%
.Amelia County   23.4%   24.3%
.Amherst County   18.9%   18.4%
.Appomattox County   19.1%   20.3%
.Arlington County   8.0%   8.5%
.Augusta County   4.3%   4.0%
.Bath County   4.7%   3.4%
.Bedford County   7.0%   7.1%
.Bland County   3.8%   5.0%
.Botetourt County   3.0%   3.5%
.Brunswick County   55.7%   55.8%
.Buchanan County   2.7%   2.7%
.Buckingham County   35.5%   34.5%
.Campbell County   14.1%   14.0%
.Caroline County   29.6%   29.3%
.Carroll County   0.6%   0.9%
.Charles City County   48.5%   48.2%
.Charlotte County   28.8%   31.5%
.Chesterfield County   20.9%   22.7%
.Clarke County   5.6%   5.5%
.Craig County   0.0%   0.2%
.Culpeper County   15.9%   14.4%
.Cumberland County   31.9%   33.1%
.Dickenson County   0.3%   0.9%
.Dinwiddie County   32.5%   33.0%
.Essex County   36.3%   41.0%
.Fairfax County   8.6%   9.4%
.Fauquier County   8.2%   7.4%
.Floyd County   1.9%   2.5%
.Fluvanna County   15.7%   14.4%
.Franklin County   8.2%   8.5%
.Frederick County   3.7%   4.4%
.Giles County   1.4%   1.6%
.Gloucester County   8.8%   8.3%
.Goochland County   20.2%   17.8%
.Grayson County   1.9%   2.7%
.Greene County   6.1%   6.6%
.Greensville County   58.9%   58.0%
.Halifax County   35.6%   36.9%
.Hanover County   9.3%   9.3%
.Henrico County   27.9%   29.6%
.Henry County   21.7%   22.3%
.Highland County   0.2%   0.0%
.Isle of Wight County   24.1%   22.8%
.James City County   12.5%   13.5%
.King and Queen County   28.6%   26.5%
.King George County   17.6%   18.0%
.King William County   18.4%   19.5%
.Lancaster County   25.0%   28.0%
.Lee County   4.3%   3.8%
.Loudoun County   7.3%   7.4%
.Louisa County   17.9%   16.7%
.Lunenburg County   35.4%   34.0%
.Madison County   10.1%   8.3%
.Mathews County   9.1%   10.3%
.Mecklenburg County   35.5%   35.1%
.Middlesex County   17.8%   19.3%
.Montgomery County   3.7%   4.3%
.Nelson County   13.0%   13.4%
.New Kent County   13.9%   12.3%
.Northampton County   35.5%   36.4%
.Northumberland County   22.9%   28.7%
.Nottoway County   39.5%   39.6%
.Orange County   12.4%   12.7%
.Page County   1.9%   1.6%
.Patrick County   5.7%   6.4%
.Pittsylvania County   22.1%   21.4%
.Powhatan County   14.8%   12.3%
.Prince Edward County   30.6%   32.9%
.Prince George County   31.4%   32.1%
.Prince William County   19.3%   20.5%
.Pulaski County   5.0%   5.8%
.Rappahannock County   4.5%   4.2%
.Richmond County   31.2%   28.8%
.Roanoke County   4.8%   5.8%
.Rockbridge County   2.6%   2.9%
.Rockingham County   1.6%   1.8%
.Russell County   0.8%   1.0%
.Scott County   0.6%   0.8%
.Shenandoah County   1.6%   2.4%
.Smyth County   2.0%   2.1%
.Southampton County   37.8%   35.9%
.Spotsylvania County   14.6%   16.0%
.Stafford County   16.1%   17.1%
.Surry County   45.4%   45.1%
.Sussex County   58.2%   57.1%
.Tazewell County   3.2%   2.9%
.Warren County   4.6%   4.0%
.Washington County   1.3%   1.5%
.Westmoreland County   26.5%   28.2%
.Wise County   6.1%   5.4%
.Wythe County   2.7%   3.6%
.York County   13.2%   13.5%
.Alexandria city   20.4%   21.4%
.Bedford city   19.2%
.Bristol city   5.2%   5.7%
.Buena Vista city   4.8%   1.1%
.Charlottesville city   16.9%   19.2%
.Chesapeake city   28.8%   29.7%
.Colonial Heights city   8.7%   13.1%
.Covington city   12.7%   13.9%
.Danville city   44.7%   48.7%
.Emporia city   59.5%   55.1%
.Fairfax city   4.4%   4.8%
.Falls Church city   4.2%   2.1%
.Franklin city   54.1%   58.6%
.Fredericksburg city   19.8%   23.3%
.Galax city   5.3%   5.6%
.Hampton city   47.4%   50.1%
.Harrisonburg city   5.4%   7.1%
.Hopewell city   33.2%   38.1%
.Lexington city   9.3%   10.9%
.Lynchburg city   26.4%   28.4%
.Manassas city   12.9%   14.3%
.Manassas Park city   12.8%   12.4%
.Martinsville city   42.6%   45.9%
.Newport News city   37.5%   40.4%
.Norfolk city   39.7%   42.1%
.Norton city   5.9%   3.4%
.Petersburg city   77.0%   77.1%
.Poquoson city   0.7%   1.0%
.Portsmouth city   50.3%   52.6%
.Radford city   7.4%   9.2%
.Richmond city   46.4%   48.6%
.Roanoke city   26.0%   27.8%
.Salem city   6.2%   7.8%
.Staunton city   11.3%   12.2%
.Suffolk city   40.9%   41.8%
.Virginia Beach city   18.1%   19.3%
.Waynesboro city   9.9%   12.7%
.Williamsburg city   12.4%   15.3%
.Winchester city   10.2%   10.6%

[Torie]

Would you project the BVAP's forward to 2020 in the same way you project population figures forward?

[muon2]

Would you project the BVAP's forward to 2020 in the same way you project population figures forward?

It would be hard since the BVAP is not the same as the black estimate, and the estimate is based on a 5 year span. What I would say is that there isn't a great deal of change in percent in most of the SE counties, so using the 2010 DRA numbers should be a decent estimate of the BVAP.

[Torie]

Would you project the BVAP's forward to 2020 in the same way you project population figures forward?

It would be hard since the BVAP is not the same as the black estimate, and the estimate is based on a 5 year span. What I would say is that there isn't a great deal of change in percent in most of the SE counties, so using the 2010 DRA numbers should be a decent estimate of the BVAP.

It might be relevant as to whether a performing black district can be drawn that is Richmond based.

[muon2]

Would you project the BVAP's forward to 2020 in the same way you project population figures forward?

It would be hard since the BVAP is not the same as the black estimate, and the estimate is based on a 5 year span. What I would say is that there isn't a great deal of change in percent in most of the SE counties, so using the 2010 DRA numbers should be a decent estimate of the BVAP.

It might be relevant as to whether a performing black district can be drawn that is Richmond based.

In 2010 the total black population was about 1.5% higher than the BVAP in SE VA. Over half of those excess black children will be voting age in 2020, so using the total black percentage from 2010 should be close to the BVAP in 2020.

I find that I can make two whole county CDs in SE VA that both have about 40% black pop. One is Richmond, Petersburg and the southern rural areas. The other is in Hampton Roads. Those should be pretty close to performing. With a couple of chops they would clearly be performing.

[Torie]

Would you project the BVAP's forward to 2020 in the same way you project population figures forward?

It would be hard since the BVAP is not the same as the black estimate, and the estimate is based on a 5 year span. What I would say is that there isn't a great deal of change in percent in most of the SE counties, so using the 2010 DRA numbers should be a decent estimate of the BVAP.

It might be relevant as to whether a performing black district can be drawn that is Richmond based.

In 2010 the total black population was about 1.5% higher than the BVAP in SE VA. Over half of those excess black children will be voting age in 2020, so using the total black percentage from 2010 should be close to the BVAP in 2020.

I find that I can make two whole county CDs in SE VA that both have about 40% black pop. One is Richmond, Petersburg and the southern rural areas. The other is in Hampton Roads. Those should be pretty close to performing. With a couple of chops they would clearly be performing.

That is about what I guessed. 40% should be performing. The Dems would be smart if they hold the power to do a gerrymander light, that is not an ugly map.   If the Pubs had done that, they would not be facing the full court press of legal challenges they face today perhaps.

[SoLongAtlas]

Dems need to focus on picking up VA-5 as well. It is R+6 so it's not that far gone but getting there. It elected Perriello, had several Obama counties.

VA-2 really should be a lock for Dems if they run the right military candidate, preferably a Navy veteran.

[Nyvin]

An 8-3 dem map might be a bit too aggressive,  probably 7-4 is more realistic.    Virginia's geography is really becoming quite favorable to Democrats nowadays, one of the few states where that's true.

Shore up VA-10 into NoVA, move Charlottesville/Albemarle into VA-7, and add Norfolk into VA-2.   

Those three districts are probably enough,  VA-1 will take another decade to flip over.

[Tintrlvr]

An 8-3 dem map might be a bit too aggressive,  probably 7-4 is more realistic.    Virginia's geography is really becoming quite favorable to Democrats nowadays, one of the few states where that's true.

Shore up VA-10 into NoVA, move Charlottesville/Albemarle into VA-7, and add Norfolk into VA-2.  

Those three districts are probably enough,  VA-1 will take another decade to flip over.

I think it's probably possible to create a fourth winnable (but not better than toss-up) district on the edges of NOVA as well for a 7-3-1 map, which is the best the Democrats could hope for without aggressive gerrymandering. An aggressive gerrymander might even be able to get them to 9-2 (or at least 8-2-1), but that seems unlikely to happen. Would require drawing four districts into Arlington/Alexandria.

[muon2]

Here's a baseline to think about. I took my county projections for 2020 and divided them into whole counties, such that only Fairfax is chopped and all the CDs are within 0.5% of the quota. I preserved two 40% BVAP (38%+ in 2010) CDs in SE VA. Where I had choices I chose the less erose option, and one could certainly swap a chop in Louisa to lower the erosity between my CD 5 and 7. CD 2 was kept with whole counties by using the Tangier Island ferry. The ferry's only seasonal so it only counts as a local connection and costs erosity, but avoids a chop.



CD 1: D+5
CD 2: D+3
CD 3: D+8
CD 4: D+12
CD 5: R+5
CD 6: R+15
CD 7: R+12
CD 8: D+21
CD 9: R+17
CD 10: R+5
CD 11: D+12

The Dems have a 6-5 advantage, which is what one would hope for in a neutral map given the slight D+1 lean for the state overall.

[jimrtex]

The courts will probably not look favorably on a Dem gerrymander that cracks the black population of SE VA. As the recent congressional case and subsequent election show, a district does not have to be 50% to elect the black candidate of choice, but it can't be too low that it would likely elect a white Dem. A rough guide is probably to check that the black population is a substantial majority of the Dem vote in the primary.

Gingles test requires 50% BVAP in a compact area. The reason the court intervened was because VA-3 was not compact. But a district that stretches from Chesapeake to Richmond, while skipping through Chesterfield is not compact. A court would also look askance at the splitting of the current VA-3. And trying to create 3 Democratic districts in SE Virginia looks like a dummymander.

[Oryxslayer]

I have been playing around with the numbers, and have created the Democratic map. Unfortunately, for those concerned, the VRA gets in the way of any attempts at a 8-3 map. However, said 7- 4 map does create a 50%+1 seat out of Va-04, allowing the tidewater to get crazy if people demand it... (I didn't)

Will post when I get home later.

[Oryxslayer]

The courts will probably not look favorably on a Dem gerrymander that cracks the black population of SE VA. As the recent congressional case and subsequent election show, a district does not have to be 50% to elect the black candidate of choice, but it can't be too low that it would likely elect a white Dem. A rough guide is probably to check that the black population is a substantial majority of the Dem vote in the primary.

Gingles test requires 50% BVAP in a compact area. The reason the court intervened was because VA-3 was not compact. But a district that stretches from Chesapeake to Richmond, while skipping through Chesterfield is not compact. A court would also look askance at the splitting of the current VA-3. And trying to create 3 Democratic districts in SE Virginia looks like a dummymander.

It's really not though. Three Democratic seats in SE Virginia is really easy, and maintaining VRA is no problem at all. If a Republican gerrymanders can draw the abominations they do now while still for the most part respecting VRA, Democratic gerrymanders certainly could. Maps are in this link, but frankly, I'm not a huge fan of the congressional map. It could be a lot neater and still result in 8-3 likely/safe Dem seats while respecting VRA:

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/11/10/1711768/-Let-s-reflect-on-the-coming-nightmare-for-Virginia-Republicans

That map is bately VRA tender, 40% for the 3rd, 35% for the 4th? This is what I mean.

I have seen other 8/3s, but they tend to be only marginal, like the one in Kamilas thread.

[jimrtex]

Here's a baseline to think about. I took my county projections for 2020 and divided them into whole counties, such that only Fairfax is chopped and all the CDs are within 0.5% of the quota. I preserved two 40% BVAP (38%+ in 2010) CDs in SE VA. Where I had choices I chose the less erose option, and one could certainly swap a chop in Louisa to lower the erosity between my CD 5 and 7. CD 2 was kept with whole counties by using the Tangier Island ferry. The ferry's only seasonal so it only counts as a local connection and costs erosity, but avoids a chop.



CD 1: D+5
CD 2: D+3
CD 3: D+8
CD 4: D+12
CD 5: R+5
CD 6: R+15
CD 7: R+12
CD 8: D+21
CD 9: R+17
CD 10: R+5
CD 11: D+12

The Dems have a 6-5 advantage, which is what one would hope for in a neutral map given the slight D+1 lean for the state overall.

The Tangier Island ferry is not only seasonal, but doesn't run on Mondays during the Summer, except for Labor Day and Memorial Day. Further it is entirely in Accomack County, and looks like it uses a party boat.

I doubt Bobby Scott will want to give up Norfolk.

[muon2]

The courts will probably not look favorably on a Dem gerrymander that cracks the black population of SE VA. As the recent congressional case and subsequent election show, a district does not have to be 50% to elect the black candidate of choice, but it can't be too low that it would likely elect a white Dem. A rough guide is probably to check that the black population is a substantial majority of the Dem vote in the primary.

Gingles test requires 50% BVAP in a compact area. The reason the court intervened was because VA-3 was not compact. But a district that stretches from Chesapeake to Richmond, while skipping through Chesterfield is not compact. A court would also look askance at the splitting of the current VA-3. And trying to create 3 Democratic districts in SE Virginia looks like a dummymander.

The court has found that though 50% in a compact area is necessary to trigger Gingles, the district that is drawn does not need 50%. The district only has to be able to elect the candidate of choice of the minority. Under that interpretation, there's a lot more wiggle room for mappers, though the burden is on a mapper to show that a sub 50% district can perform to elect a candidate of choice. In VA that depends on how well the minority can control the Dem primary and have enough crossover white Dem votes to prevail in the general election.

[jimrtex]

The courts will probably not look favorably on a Dem gerrymander that cracks the black population of SE VA. As the recent congressional case and subsequent election show, a district does not have to be 50% to elect the black candidate of choice, but it can't be too low that it would likely elect a white Dem. A rough guide is probably to check that the black population is a substantial majority of the Dem vote in the primary.

Gingles test requires 50% BVAP in a compact area. The reason the court intervened was because VA-3 was not compact. But a district that stretches from Chesapeake to Richmond, while skipping through Chesterfield is not compact. A court would also look askance at the splitting of the current VA-3. And trying to create 3 Democratic districts in SE Virginia looks like a dummymander.

It's really not though. Three Democratic seats in SE Virginia is really easy, and maintaining VRA is no problem at all. If a Republican gerrymanders can draw the abominations they do now while still for the most part respecting VRA, Democratic gerrymanders certainly could. Maps are in this link, but frankly, I'm not a huge fan of the congressional map. It could be a lot neater and still result in 8-3 likely/safe Dem seats while respecting VRA:

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/11/10/1711768/-Let-s-reflect-on-the-coming-nightmare-for-Virginia-Republicans

VA-3 in that map is a racial gerrymander.

[jimrtex]

The courts will probably not look favorably on a Dem gerrymander that cracks the black population of SE VA. As the recent congressional case and subsequent election show, a district does not have to be 50% to elect the black candidate of choice, but it can't be too low that it would likely elect a white Dem. A rough guide is probably to check that the black population is a substantial majority of the Dem vote in the primary.

Gingles test requires 50% BVAP in a compact area. The reason the court intervened was because VA-3 was not compact. But a district that stretches from Chesapeake to Richmond, while skipping through Chesterfield is not compact. A court would also look askance at the splitting of the current VA-3. And trying to create 3 Democratic districts in SE Virginia looks like a dummymander.

The court has found that though 50% in a compact area is necessary to trigger Gingles, the district that is drawn does not need 50%. The district only has to be able to elect the candidate of choice of the minority. Under that interpretation, there's a lot more wiggle room for mappers, though the burden is on a mapper to show that a sub 50% district can perform to elect a candidate of choice. In VA that depends on how well the minority can control the Dem primary and have enough crossover white Dem votes to prevail in the general election.

You can't get to 50% in a compact area in SE Virginia, and if Dems can win in a 40% BVAP district, you don't have racially polarized voting.

[jimrtex]

VA-3 in that map is a racial gerrymander.

Well worse maps have gotten through and have gone years without court intervention. In any case, the above picture is probably what I imagine a smart Va dem Party will go for, though with the addendum of 4 NOVA districts instead of knee-capping themselves to just 3.

A VA-3 like that was just ruled unconstitutional a couple of years ago. There is no explanation other than race for that district.