Virginia 2020 County Projection Map
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Author Topic: Virginia 2020 County Projection Map  (Read 4511 times)
Torie
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« Reply #50 on: November 16, 2017, 12:24:05 PM »
« edited: November 16, 2017, 12:44:34 PM by Torie »

Here is my little effort. It should be amusing to see what contortions are administered as NOVA is bacon striped and a black performing CD is jettisoned to squeeze out a couple of more Dem CD's in a map that by then SCOTUS will have very probably held to be illegal. Have fun. In the real world, the Dems are going to have to content themselves with a 6D-5R map, and if the Pubs have their way, a 6R-5D map. The joy out of gerrymanders is just not going to be what it used to be. Sad, not!






What justification is there to run VA-10 all the way down to Charlottesville?   There aren't even any highways running that route.  

Also VA-7 is already just about a swing district as it is,  you don't need to take BVAP away from VA-4 to make it a Dem seat in 2020,  just add Charlottesville to it and take away the rural GOP parts from it.   The dems most certainly do not have to contend with a 6-5 map,  that's just silly,  VA-10 can be a NOVA safe seat without Charlottesville easily.  

Your map borderlines on a R Gerrymander.

I'm confused. You add Charlottesville to what CD to make it Dem (appended to a NOVA bacon stripe CD I guess)?  CD-07 is already Dem in the above map. If you want another Dem CD, you could do Muon2's contortions to make CD-02 more Dem (lacking an all year bridge or ferry connection, but whatever). I'm not sure what his BV is in his map however in CD-04 and CD-03, and if it is substantially lower than mine, the black caucus in VA might not like it. In my VA-04, when the census comes out, the BV should move up, as certain precincts in Chesterfield can be selected that get a lot more black, as compared to the county as a whole.
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Torie
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« Reply #51 on: November 16, 2017, 12:35:15 PM »

Here is my little effort. It should be amusing to see what contortions are administered as NOVA is bacon striped and a black performing CD is jettisoned to squeeze out a couple of more Dem CD's in a map that by then SCOTUS will have very probably held to be illegal. Have fun. In the real world, the Dems are going to have to content themselves with a 6D-5R map, and if the Pubs have their way, a 6R-5D map. The joy out of gerrymanders is just not going to be what it used to be. Sad, not!



This demonstrates that the concept of competitive districts is a myth.

I think you should put the northern cape (Accomack and Northampton) in VA-1.

It depends on the state. VA could have two very competitive districts if so desired in a somewhat reasonable map.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #52 on: November 16, 2017, 02:05:06 PM »

Here is my little effort. It should be amusing to see what contortions are administered as NOVA is bacon striped and a black performing CD is jettisoned to squeeze out a couple of more Dem CD's in a map that by then SCOTUS will have very probably held to be illegal. Have fun. In the real world, the Dems are going to have to content themselves with a 6D-5R map, and if the Pubs have their way, a 6R-5D map. The joy out of gerrymanders is just not going to be what it used to be. Sad, not!






What justification is there to run VA-10 all the way down to Charlottesville?   There aren't even any highways running that route.  

Also VA-7 is already just about a swing district as it is,  you don't need to take BVAP away from VA-4 to make it a Dem seat in 2020,  just add Charlottesville to it and take away the rural GOP parts from it.   The dems most certainly do not have to contend with a 6-5 map,  that's just silly,  VA-10 can be a NOVA safe seat without Charlottesville easily.  

Your map borderlines on a R Gerrymander.

I'm confused. You add Charlottesville to what CD to make it Dem (appended to a NOVA bacon stripe CD I guess)?  CD-07 is already Dem in the above map. If you want another Dem CD, you could do Muon2's contortions to make CD-02 more Dem (lacking an all year bridge or ferry connection, but whatever). I'm not sure what his BV is in his map however in CD-04 and CD-03, and if it is substantially lower than mine, the black caucus in VA might not like it. In my VA-04, when the census comes out, the BV should move up, as certain precincts in Chesterfield can be selected that get a lot more black, as compared to the county as a whole.

Take the VA-7 parts that are in Henrico and Chesterfield already right now...run along I-64 into Charlottesville/Albemarle, shave off some rural precincts and put them in VA-5...Voila.   Simple and easy Dem seat without touching VA-4 whatsoever.   It even follows the interstate and looks much cleaner than the current map.

VA-10 just shrinks into NoVA without doing much changes at all and it becomes safe Dem.

The right wingers here spouting stuff about "VRA, Courts, ugly map" just seem to be in denial about how easy the map is becoming for Democrats in Virginia.   You can't possibly expect the state party not to take advantage of what they can there in 2020.
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Torie
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« Reply #53 on: November 16, 2017, 02:21:00 PM »
« Edited: November 16, 2017, 02:53:06 PM by Torie »

I look forward to seeing your map based on the 2020 population projections. Oh, I see them above. It's about what I expected, and utterly hideous. As I said, I doubt such a map will be legal in 2020.

On this VRA stuff, what has SCOTUS said about racially gerrymandered maps that do not connect widely dispersed and non contiguous minorities, that help create more performing minority districts than would otherwise be the case, rather than packing? I don't think SCOTUS has ever struck such a map down. So I don't think that VA-03 district that Jimrtex hates is illegal.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #54 on: November 16, 2017, 02:21:30 PM »

Here is my little effort. It should be amusing to see what contortions are administered as NOVA is bacon striped and a black performing CD is jettisoned to squeeze out a couple of more Dem CD's in a map that by then SCOTUS will have very probably held to be illegal. Have fun. In the real world, the Dems are going to have to content themselves with a 6D-5R map, and if the Pubs have their way, a 6R-5D map. The joy out of gerrymanders is just not going to be what it used to be. Sad, not!



This demonstrates that the concept of competitive districts is a myth.

I think you should put the northern cape (Accomack and Northampton) in VA-1.

It depends on the state. VA could have two very competitive districts if so desired in a somewhat reasonable map.

2 of 11 is less than 20%.
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Torie
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« Reply #55 on: November 16, 2017, 02:22:53 PM »

What is the percentage of competitive CD's in the nation right now? About 10%?
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jimrtex
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« Reply #56 on: November 16, 2017, 02:31:58 PM »

What is the percentage of competitive CD's in the nation right now? About 10%?

Ballotpedia battleground districts

Somewhere around 10%
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Torie
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« Reply #57 on: November 16, 2017, 02:57:31 PM »

I look forward to seeing your map based on the 2020 population projections.

There's clean county maps right here in this thread of a 7-4 Democratic map based on pop. projections.

I think you're seriously underestimating how easy it is to make 4 Safe-D clean NOVA based seats without ugly county splits while making VA-02 safe D and VA-7 likely D with merely the additions of Norfolk and Albemarle/Charlottesville, respectively.

Yes, I see them now, and commented on them above. I did not ever say that what you wanted is impossible. What I said is that such maps would be hideous, and will probably be illegal by 2020. And I don't think the Dems will do that even if legal. The sentiment now is more along the lines of gerrymandering lite. One fallout of going hideous, is that it tends to end up with an initiative that has an independent body draw the lines.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #58 on: November 16, 2017, 03:10:58 PM »

Yes, I see them now, and commented on them above. I did not ever say that what you wanted is impossible. What I said is that such maps would be hideous, and will probably be illegal by 2020. And I don't think the Dems will do that even if legal. The sentiment now is more along the lines of gerrymandering lite. One fallout of going hideous, is that it tends to end up with an initiative that has an independent body draw the lines.

To be fair, assuming you mean a ballot initiative, there is no process in Virginia to do that. If Virginia Democrats wanted to draw hideous maps, no one but the courts could stop them.
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Torie
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« Reply #59 on: November 16, 2017, 03:16:37 PM »

Yes, I see them now, and commented on them above. I did not ever say that what you wanted is impossible. What I said is that such maps would be hideous, and will probably be illegal by 2020. And I don't think the Dems will do that even if legal. The sentiment now is more along the lines of gerrymandering lite. One fallout of going hideous, is that it tends to end up with an initiative that has an independent body draw the lines.

To be fair, assuming you mean a ballot initiative, there is no process in Virginia to do that. If Virginia Democrats wanted to draw hideous maps, no one but the courts could stop them.

I'm going to post my perfectly legal 9D-2R map here later tonight just to piss off the nay-sayers in this thread.

No, you are amusing me.
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Torie
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« Reply #60 on: November 16, 2017, 03:19:27 PM »
« Edited: November 16, 2017, 04:09:02 PM by Torie »

Yes, I see them now, and commented on them above. I did not ever say that what you wanted is impossible. What I said is that such maps would be hideous, and will probably be illegal by 2020. And I don't think the Dems will do that even if legal. The sentiment now is more along the lines of gerrymandering lite. One fallout of going hideous, is that it tends to end up with an initiative that has an independent body draw the lines.

To be fair, assuming you mean a ballot initiative, there is no process in Virginia to do that. If Virginia Democrats wanted to draw hideous maps, no one but the courts could stop them.

OK. My guess is that if the Dems have thin majorities in the legislature, there will not be a majority vote for a hideous map. These days, that could be a career ender for those from marginal districts.

What I guess Kennedy will do is hold that a map with a substantial and enduring partisan bias which also traduces reasonable redistricting principles by going all erose and choppy, is illegal. He will not buy into this ridiculous efficiency metric.  We shall see.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #61 on: November 16, 2017, 05:03:44 PM »

Yes, I see them now, and commented on them above. I did not ever say that what you wanted is impossible. What I said is that such maps would be hideous, and will probably be illegal by 2020. And I don't think the Dems will do that even if legal. The sentiment now is more along the lines of gerrymandering lite. One fallout of going hideous, is that it tends to end up with an initiative that has an independent body draw the lines.

To be fair, assuming you mean a ballot initiative, there is no process in Virginia to do that. If Virginia Democrats wanted to draw hideous maps, no one but the courts could stop them.

OK. My guess is that if the Dems have thin majorities in the legislature, there will not be a majority vote for a hideous map. These days, that could be a career ender for those from marginal districts.

What I guess Kennedy will do is hold that a map with a substantial and enduring partisan bias which also traduces reasonable redistricting principles by going all erose and choppy, is illegal. He will not buy into this ridiculous efficiency metric.  We shall see.

...And I suppose you find the North Carolina 10R-3D map beautiful?    Because that'd be just about what a 7D-4R map would look like.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #62 on: November 16, 2017, 07:52:09 PM »

Yes, I see them now, and commented on them above. I did not ever say that what you wanted is impossible. What I said is that such maps would be hideous, and will probably be illegal by 2020. And I don't think the Dems will do that even if legal. The sentiment now is more along the lines of gerrymandering lite. One fallout of going hideous, is that it tends to end up with an initiative that has an independent body draw the lines.

To be fair, assuming you mean a ballot initiative, there is no process in Virginia to do that. If Virginia Democrats wanted to draw hideous maps, no one but the courts could stop them.

OK. My guess is that if the Dems have thin majorities in the legislature, there will not be a majority vote for a hideous map. These days, that could be a career ender for those from marginal districts.

What I guess Kennedy will do is hold that a map with a substantial and enduring partisan bias which also traduces reasonable redistricting principles by going all erose and choppy, is illegal. He will not buy into this ridiculous efficiency metric.  We shall see.

...And I suppose you find the North Carolina 10R-3D map beautiful?    Because that'd be just about what a 7D-4R map would look like.

You're being way too kind to the NC map if that's your comparison. A 7-4 D map in VA need only split four counties

Yeah, NC is far worse than what a VA 7-4 D map would look like,   not really any comparison.   

If the NCGOP can get by the Supreme Court with that,  I find it hilarious that the right wingers here think VA Dems will get struck down for what's actually a pretty normal map.
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Torie
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« Reply #63 on: November 16, 2017, 09:13:58 PM »
« Edited: November 16, 2017, 09:36:51 PM by Torie »

Nice effort. Erose affair (putting aside the emaciated twisted snake like VA-03 for a moment, in particular the yellow CD, and to a lessor extent the blue one), but you did try to keep the chops down. Assuming SCOTUS does not tighten the noose too much to nullify your map in general, I wonder if Justice Kennedy will tolerate your VA-03 excursion into erosity in particular. He struck down a Pub drawn Hispanic CD in Texas that got performing by combining Hispanic communities in the Rio Grande and Austin. when a more compact Rio Grande based Hispanic CD that did not take in two very disparate communities was possible, but avoided by the Pubs in order to jettison a white Dem Austin based CD. You perhaps have done the same, in the opposite direction.

I would delete the precinct lines when posting a map. You don't need them, and it makes more difficult to see the lines where erose in urban areas.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #64 on: November 16, 2017, 10:50:26 PM »

Hey PNM, wgats the 2012/16 PVI of that map - it seems real nice btw. Ever since DRA got most of the states updated with such numbers, its kinda the go-to baseline for judging district partisan lean.
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muon2
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« Reply #65 on: November 16, 2017, 11:18:40 PM »

It looks like you are using 2010 population numbers. VA-2 with just VA Beach, Norfolk, and Delmarva is too low in population. That's why I posted the table of 2020 projections. My baseline crosses the Chesapeake up north to pick up the necessary extra counties, and that way avoids a chop of one of the other Hampton Roads communities.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #66 on: November 17, 2017, 07:39:56 AM »

Hey PNM, wgats the 2012/16 PVI of that map - it seems real nice btw. Ever since DRA got most of the states updated with such numbers, its kinda the go-to baseline for judging district partisan lean.

I don't know unfortunately. I can calculate it if you give me an hour or two. But it should be pretty easy for the most part since the only split counties are Fairfax, Chesterfield and Henrico. I don't see a court striking this sinister beauty down. I do know that Clinton and Northam won the seven safe D seats by double digits and both won the swing seat, CD-7. That should give you an idea of how powerful it is.

Hold on - DRA VA has this now in the system:



Since the time I took that picture, the data has been expanded to include two decimal places. So wait, are you like using a different version of DRA or something - 2.2 has this data.
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Torie
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« Reply #67 on: November 17, 2017, 10:06:50 AM »

You know if you combine what Muon2 did to VA-02 with what I did with VA-10, you get a 7-4 map that would look far better than what you did to squeeze out an additional marginal seat. And if you drop the BV for my VA-03 down three points so that mine matches Muon2's BV for that CD, then with my map VA-02 becomes a swing seat.
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Torie
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« Reply #68 on: November 17, 2017, 10:24:55 AM »

What's so ugly about my map? This is probably the cleanest map Virginia's seen in decades, and there's absolutely zero reason for Democrats to not go for it if they have a trifecta. They can make the case that a D+4 VA-02 and a D+5 VA-10 and an R+1 (albeit D-trending) VA-07 are more than sufficient for the GOP to make a play on given the state's Democratic tilt. They have zero incentive to make a 7D-4R map if a 5 safe D, 2 Likely D, 1 swing, and 3 safe R map is possible. A court challenge based on racial gerrymandering wouldn't hold up and it's very unlikely that a SCOTUS ruling would prevent my map.

It has a very high erosity score per Muon2's metric, or any other metric for that matter, and to my eyes looks ugly, but aesthetics is subjective. And it has legal vulnerabilities, as I noted, in particular your design of VA-03. If I were a partisan Dem in VA, I would question whether it is worth it all to get another swing seat. But I guess by 2021, we will have a much better idea what the law is than we do now, so in that sense the question might be moot when it comes time to actually draw maps. But for this exercise if the map were being drawn now, the questions are not moot at all.
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Torie
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« Reply #69 on: November 17, 2017, 10:39:27 AM »
« Edited: November 17, 2017, 10:46:41 AM by Torie »

If you can link me to this "erosity metric" that'd be much appreciated. In any case, such a map would probably still hold up until (READ: if) the courts strike it down, so it could still be of use for 2-3 cycles in all likelihood.

I am also confused as to how it supposedly dilutes the black vote considering both seats are just as black as the current VA-04. Sounds like a BS Republican gerrymander talking point. My map doesn't even divide cities in Hampton Roads like the current map does!

Muon2 counts state road chops between counties in different CD's, with a similar metric involving road cuts between municipalities in different CD's within a county, but more complicated, for counties that have chops involving more than around 40,000 residents.

As I explained above, your problem with VA-03 is that it combines black populations in two different metro areas, where it is possible to draw a performing black CD that does not do that. There is a specific SCOTUS case on that issue.

Btw, Muon2 mentioned with his map, that a seasonal link between counties is now the equivalent of a non state highway. I thought such merely seasonal links were banned under his rules. Maybe he modified his metric, or maybe I missed something. It doesn't matter. Courts are not going to be applying his rules (in particular the more esoteric aspects) any time soon. Smiley

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Torie
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« Reply #70 on: November 17, 2017, 10:42:21 AM »

Ftr I luv how my maps with limited county splits are ugly yet Republican abominations of county splits and cracks and slices have held up the entire 2010 decade in like a dozen states lol

The law is in flux. Stay tuned.
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Torie
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« Reply #71 on: November 17, 2017, 11:21:50 AM »

Torie Imma draw a 7-3-1 Virginia map that even you can't take issue with. And I'm sure it will make the R's on here furious.

There have been no sightings of "furious" Pubs here as of yet. Tongue
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muon2
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« Reply #72 on: November 17, 2017, 11:43:18 AM »

If you can link me to this "erosity metric" that'd be much appreciated. In any case, such a map would probably still hold up until (READ: if) the courts strike it down, so it could still be of use for 2-3 cycles in all likelihood.

The complete set of metrics I use are in the stickied Muon Rules thread on this board. The full details for erosity begin at this post. It is not a currently recognized standard for compactness like Polsby-Popper or Reock, but there is academic research investigating it with perhaps some papers and a student's thesis to follow.

For Torie: I revised the rules in 2016 to permit intercounty connections by local roads, albeit with a penalty, and that included seasonal ferries. All season ferries are still regional connections without penalty.

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muon2
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« Reply #73 on: November 18, 2017, 12:30:47 AM »

I must say, Torie, I've outdone myself here. Oh, @muon, these districts are all roughly 790K in their projected 2020 populations, give or take a few thousand for each district.



CD-1: The blue PWC-based seat. 2012/2016 PVI of D+3.58
CD-2: successor to current one. 2016 PVI D+2.88
CD-3: successor to current one (and compact!). 40% black. D+7.75
CD-4: successor to current one (and compact!). 41% black. D+8.96
CD-5: Yellow seat. 2016 PVI of R+15.85
CD-6: Staunton-Danville seat. 2012/2016 PVI of R+14.86
CD-7: Compact-ish Albemarle-Chesterfield County seat with Henrico portion. R+0.12
CD-8: successor to current one. D+19.73
CD-9: successor to current one. R+16.69
CD-10: successor to current one. R+0.75 and trending blue.
CD-11: Fairfax County one. D+12.12

So 6 likely/safe D, 2 swing seats (though both are trending D) and 3 safe R seats. Doesn't appear to violate VRA. Only splits two counties (aside from the necessary Fairfax): Henrico and Augusta. It's worth pointing out that Clinton carried CD-07 and CD-10 pretty handily, so those R+ figures may be somewhat misleading. Romney did much better than Trump did in Albemarle/Henrico/Chesterfield/Loudoun/Fairfax. Indeed, CD-07 and CD-10 are both Obama '08-Romney '12-Clinton '16 seats.

CD-10 kind of concerns me, but if Jennifer Wexton or whichever Democrat is representing the seat come 2020 has any say, I'm sure they can shift the lines in Fairfax County to secure CD-10 to make it around D+5 or so. After all, they do have a bit of wiggle room to secure CD-01 and CD-10 with the many extra Democrats from CD-08 and CD-11 if they choose to do so. This map is just to show you that a D-gerrymander is, in fact, pretty easy, and looks much better than the current Republican gerrymander that appears to resemble an abortion that didn't take.

That a much nicer gerrymander and I hope you don't mind that I made your map full size. Just cut the _thumb part out of the name in the img and you can do it next time yourself.

I do have a quibble with the plan. Though it is legal under VA law it is unpleasant that you can't get from Chesterfield to the rest of CD 7 by road without going through CD 4. That type of adjacency would violate the muon rules as contiguity without connections are usually signs of partisan gerrymandering.
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muon2
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« Reply #74 on: November 18, 2017, 07:33:14 AM »

If you have the 2020 population numbers for this plan (deviations are fine, too), I can do a comparison with my baseline plan on the muon metrics. For your chopped counties, I need to know the expected population in each fragment. You can assume that they are split in proportion to the fragments' populations in 2010. I'll ignore Fairfax since that requires knowledge of the county subdivisions populations, which I haven't projected. If we were doing this right we would have been using those lines as if they were county lines.

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