Virginia 2020 County Projection Map

[Nyvin]

An 8-3 dem map might be a bit too aggressive,  probably 7-4 is more realistic.    Virginia's geography is really becoming quite favorable to Democrats nowadays, one of the few states where that's true.

Shore up VA-10 into NoVA, move Charlottesville/Albemarle into VA-7, and add Norfolk into VA-2.   

Those three districts are probably enough,  VA-1 will take another decade to flip over.

[Nyvin]

What a load of horse crap. We all know the only reason Va-03 was 55% black from 2011-16 was because it was designed to pack in all the Dem voters in SE VA

Especially considering the current districts both elected Black representatives easily.    Drawing two Dem seats in southeast VA was always stupidly easy,  they really had to contort the districts to make VA-4  a GOP seat.

[Nyvin]

If VA-3 had not been created following the 1990 census it is unlikely that Bobby Scott would be in Congress. He had run in 1986, and lost with 46% of the vote.

The USDOJ forced the creation of VA-3 in 1992 (the first version was overturned in 1996, because it had a BVAP of 60%). The court ruled that the State had not proven that polarized bloc voting was sufficient to prevent the election of the black candidate of choice. The court also state that the existence of a minority majority "in a geographically compact area" was "doubtful at best."

Following the 2010 Census, Virginia was confronted with a hostile and partisan USDOJ. States all over the South increased the black percentage of districts in order to secure administrative preclearance (Texas did not, and we are still in court for the past 6 years).

If blacks in general are given an opportunity to elect their candidate of choice, isn't it reasonable to maximize their opportunity of individual black voters to participate in that election?

The Republicans were the ones in 2010 to try to pack Blacks into as few districts as humanly possible....and you call the Holder DOJ "hostile and partisan"....wow.

You deserve every bit of scorn you receive for being nothing more than a partisan hack that spews false Republican propaganda.    Try being objective and fact based for a change!

[Nyvin]

Here is my little effort. It should be amusing to see what contortions are administered as NOVA is bacon striped and a black performing CD is jettisoned to squeeze out a couple of more Dem CD's in a map that by then SCOTUS will have very probably held to be illegal. Have fun. In the real world, the Dems are going to have to content themselves with a 6D-5R map, and if the Pubs have their way, a 6R-5D map. The joy out of gerrymanders is just not going to be what it used to be. Sad, not!

What justification is there to run VA-10 all the way down to Charlottesville?   There aren't even any highways running that route.   

Also VA-7 is already just about a swing district as it is,  you don't need to take BVAP away from VA-4 to make it a Dem seat in 2020,  just add Charlottesville to it and take away the rural GOP parts from it.   The dems most certainly do not have to contend with a 6-5 map,  that's just silly,  VA-10 can be a NOVA safe seat without Charlottesville easily.   

Your map borderlines on a R Gerrymander.

[Nyvin]

Here is my little effort. It should be amusing to see what contortions are administered as NOVA is bacon striped and a black performing CD is jettisoned to squeeze out a couple of more Dem CD's in a map that by then SCOTUS will have very probably held to be illegal. Have fun. In the real world, the Dems are going to have to content themselves with a 6D-5R map, and if the Pubs have their way, a 6R-5D map. The joy out of gerrymanders is just not going to be what it used to be. Sad, not!

What justification is there to run VA-10 all the way down to Charlottesville?   There aren't even any highways running that route.  

Also VA-7 is already just about a swing district as it is,  you don't need to take BVAP away from VA-4 to make it a Dem seat in 2020,  just add Charlottesville to it and take away the rural GOP parts from it.   The dems most certainly do not have to contend with a 6-5 map,  that's just silly,  VA-10 can be a NOVA safe seat without Charlottesville easily.  

Your map borderlines on a R Gerrymander.

I'm confused. You add Charlottesville to what CD to make it Dem (appended to a NOVA bacon stripe CD I guess)?  CD-07 is already Dem in the above map. If you want another Dem CD, you could do Muon2's contortions to make CD-02 more Dem (lacking an all year bridge or ferry connection, but whatever). I'm not sure what his BV is in his map however in CD-04 and CD-03, and if it is substantially lower than mine, the black caucus in VA might not like it. In my VA-04, when the census comes out, the BV should move up, as certain precincts in Chesterfield can be selected that get a lot more black, as compared to the county as a whole.

Take the VA-7 parts that are in Henrico and Chesterfield already right now...run along I-64 into Charlottesville/Albemarle, shave off some rural precincts and put them in VA-5...Voila.   Simple and easy Dem seat without touching VA-4 whatsoever.   It even follows the interstate and looks much cleaner than the current map.

VA-10 just shrinks into NoVA without doing much changes at all and it becomes safe Dem.

The right wingers here spouting stuff about "VRA, Courts, ugly map" just seem to be in denial about how easy the map is becoming for Democrats in Virginia.   You can't possibly expect the state party not to take advantage of what they can there in 2020.

[Nyvin]

Yes, I see them now, and commented on them above. I did not ever say that what you wanted is impossible. What I said is that such maps would be hideous, and will probably be illegal by 2020. And I don't think the Dems will do that even if legal. The sentiment now is more along the lines of gerrymandering lite. One fallout of going hideous, is that it tends to end up with an initiative that has an independent body draw the lines.

To be fair, assuming you mean a ballot initiative, there is no process in Virginia to do that. If Virginia Democrats wanted to draw hideous maps, no one but the courts could stop them.

OK. My guess is that if the Dems have thin majorities in the legislature, there will not be a majority vote for a hideous map. These days, that could be a career ender for those from marginal districts.

What I guess Kennedy will do is hold that a map with a substantial and enduring partisan bias which also traduces reasonable redistricting principles by going all erose and choppy, is illegal. He will not buy into this ridiculous efficiency metric.  We shall see.

...And I suppose you find the North Carolina 10R-3D map beautiful?    Because that'd be just about what a 7D-4R map would look like.

[Nyvin]

Yes, I see them now, and commented on them above. I did not ever say that what you wanted is impossible. What I said is that such maps would be hideous, and will probably be illegal by 2020. And I don't think the Dems will do that even if legal. The sentiment now is more along the lines of gerrymandering lite. One fallout of going hideous, is that it tends to end up with an initiative that has an independent body draw the lines.

To be fair, assuming you mean a ballot initiative, there is no process in Virginia to do that. If Virginia Democrats wanted to draw hideous maps, no one but the courts could stop them.

OK. My guess is that if the Dems have thin majorities in the legislature, there will not be a majority vote for a hideous map. These days, that could be a career ender for those from marginal districts.

What I guess Kennedy will do is hold that a map with a substantial and enduring partisan bias which also traduces reasonable redistricting principles by going all erose and choppy, is illegal. He will not buy into this ridiculous efficiency metric.  We shall see.

...And I suppose you find the North Carolina 10R-3D map beautiful?    Because that'd be just about what a 7D-4R map would look like.

You're being way too kind to the NC map if that's your comparison. A 7-4 D map in VA need only split four counties

Yeah, NC is far worse than what a VA 7-4 D map would look like,   not really any comparison.   

If the NCGOP can get by the Supreme Court with that,  I find it hilarious that the right wingers here think VA Dems will get struck down for what's actually a pretty normal map.