Virginia 2020 County Projection Map

[Oryxslayer]

Since the Democrats surged towards potential control of the Virginia House of Delegates last Tuesday, I have seen a number of discussions diverge into the question of 2020 Redistricting in the commonwealth. With no worse then a coin toss chance at a democratic trifecta from 2019 onwards, Democrats certainly would wish to know what they could do in a state like Virginia. With VPAP being a excellent resource, and census growth data, I whipped this together. Virginia currently does not look to gain a congressional district in 2020, so her districts would be slightly above the national average.

I colored by regions largely to make drawing districts easier since Virginia has the awkward Independent Cities. These regions were based on the VPAP division. Their district allotment is:

NOVA: 3.4053
Chesapeake: 0.3094
Piedmont: 0.9172
Capitol Region: 1.5588
Tidewater Region: 2.072
Southside: 0.9851
Western Virginia: 1.043
Southwestern Virginia: 0.7489

A important thing to note is how much NOVA has grown relative to the state. In 2010, Democratic NOVA (NOVA region minus Fauquier) was allotted a tiny bit over 3 district. In 2020, the same batch of counties should have close an extra third of another District. This growth is headed by Louden which has grwon a whopping 23.38% since 2010! If the Democrats did not have control, and divided government led to a fair map for example, this third could easily be partnered with much of the upper Piedmont to form a new swing seat. If democrats have full control, and the Supreme court does not rule against gerrymandering, Democrats could easily use this third to create another blue seat.

County allotments were found by taking % growth projection from the six yearly intervals available to us presently and averaging it out to eliminate outlier years. This average yearly percent growth was then projected forward for the next four intervals. This, like all projections, has flaws. For Virginia this method might not be the best since many counties were growing during the early intervals and have since started shrinking.

I hope this resource is usable for the many partisan Democrats who now want to lay around and see what they can create their own partisan maps for the future.

[Oryxslayer]

Nice work. I use a slightly different method to project the 2020 populations. I take the 2016 estimate (Fv) and compare it to the 2010 census (Pv) using the rate function to get the annual percentage rate based on 6.25 years (N). The extra quarter year is because the census is on Apr 1 and the estimate is from Jul 1. The rate function is mathematically [(Fv/Pv)^(1/N) - 1].

To get the 2020 projection I use a future value based on the 2010 census (Pv), annual percentage rate from above (R) and 10 years (P). The future value is P[(1+R)^N - 1]/R. This method assumes that the average rate of growth from 2010 to 2016 continues until 2020 and it is based on a compounding, not linear formula.

For VA Bedford county needs special treatment. In the 2010 census Bedford city was independent but was dissolved in 2013 and returned to the county. For the 2010 census I use the sum of Bedford county and Bedford city.

If this method is applied to the state as a whole the 2020 population would be 8668.3 K. If it is applied separately to each county and independent city then added up, the population would be 8681.9 K. The difference is due to the fact that the counties are growing at different rates, and this introduces variances compared to the state overall. For redistricting I use the total from the counties so with 11 CDs the population of each would be 789.3 K.

Our numbers tend to be pretty much the same - My projections overall see an extra 25K.

Also updated main picture due to a typo.

[Oryxslayer]

Since the Democrats surged towards potential control of the Virginia House of Delegates last Tuesday, I have seen a number of discussions diverge into the question of 2020 Redistricting in the commonwealth. With no worse then a coin toss chance at a democratic trifecta from 2019 onwards, Democrats certainly would wish to know what they could do in a state like Virginia. With VPAP being a excellent resource, and census growth data, I whipped this together. Virginia currently does not look to gain a congressional district in 2020, so her districts would be slightly above the national average.

These are district populations projected from the 2016 ACS estimates.

1 Virginia          807
2 Virginia          757
3 Virginia          746
4 Virginia          786
5 Virginia          740
6 Virginia          771
7 Virginia          804
8 Virginia          817
9 Virginia          695
10 Virginia         887
11 Virginia         848

These are relative to projected quota of 787K for 2020.

1 Virginia          1.025
2 Virginia          0.962
3 Virginia          0.948
4 Virginia          0.999
5 Virginia          0.940
6 Virginia          0.980
7 Virginia          1.022
8 Virginia          1.037
9 Virginia          0.883
10 Virginia         1.127
11 Virginia         1.078

The 3 NoVA districts: VA-8, VA-10, VA-11 have a population equivalent to 3.242 districts.

VA-6 can take the remainder of the Shenadoah Valley. It doesn't make sense to extend VA-5 into the Washington area, so basically VA-1 gets pushed into the Washington area.

The problem with this though is you are assuming a minimal change map. I made this resource since partisan dems in the HoD thread, the VA gov thread, and a couple other areas were questioning what would happen if dems got a trifecta (likely). If dems get a trifecta, expect a radical redraw, like North Carolina, Ohio, or PA in 2010. If so, districts are going to get a heavy dem tilt...

Interesting that the extra 1/3 CD in democratic NOVA shows up pretty clearly. The two Democratic seats in NOVA are overpopulated, and the lightning growth in Loudon sticks out. even VA - 01, with only about a half/third of PW is overpopulated. Some of this is probably Hanover and Stafford, though their growth is countering the shrinkage in the Chesapeake.

For those dems out there, I will be coming up with partisan maps soon, followed by fair ones...

[Oryxslayer]

I have been playing around with the numbers, and have created the Democratic map. Unfortunately, for those concerned, the VRA gets in the way of any attempts at a 8-3 map. However, said 7- 4 map does create a 50%+1 seat out of Va-04, allowing the tidewater to get crazy if people demand it... (I didn't)

Will post when I get home later.

[Oryxslayer]

The courts will probably not look favorably on a Dem gerrymander that cracks the black population of SE VA. As the recent congressional case and subsequent election show, a district does not have to be 50% to elect the black candidate of choice, but it can't be too low that it would likely elect a white Dem. A rough guide is probably to check that the black population is a substantial majority of the Dem vote in the primary.

Gingles test requires 50% BVAP in a compact area. The reason the court intervened was because VA-3 was not compact. But a district that stretches from Chesapeake to Richmond, while skipping through Chesterfield is not compact. A court would also look askance at the splitting of the current VA-3. And trying to create 3 Democratic districts in SE Virginia looks like a dummymander.

It's really not though. Three Democratic seats in SE Virginia is really easy, and maintaining VRA is no problem at all. If a Republican gerrymanders can draw the abominations they do now while still for the most part respecting VRA, Democratic gerrymanders certainly could. Maps are in this link, but frankly, I'm not a huge fan of the congressional map. It could be a lot neater and still result in 8-3 likely/safe Dem seats while respecting VRA:

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/11/10/1711768/-Let-s-reflect-on-the-coming-nightmare-for-Virginia-Republicans

That map is bately VRA tender, 40% for the 3rd, 35% for the 4th? This is what I mean.

I have seen other 8/3s, but they tend to be only marginal, like the one in Kamilas thread.

[Oryxslayer]

Whats the 2012/16 PVIs int hose districts? I still think the BVAP is to low, but eh.

[Oryxslayer]

Here is my Dem gerrymander that I drew earlier. The first scenario has the fourth be over 50% Black, while the second has it and the third both in the mid forties. The beauty of the map is fourth eating up southside, acting as a Black opportunity and a Rural R pact at the same time. It effectively dismembers the fifth and giving dems a excuse to put Charlottesville to use. It also allows dems to go crazy in the Tidewater, since VA-04 and VA-03 have switch Black vote strength. The extra third in Nova is used as part of a redrawn seventh, which goes from PW down to Charlottesville, and then into White Richmond. Nova is horribly disfigured in order to keep dem incumbents in their districts. I also tried to keep VA-11 below 50% white, similar to the current district. In both scenarios, it is 48% white. VA - 02 could probably become more democratic, though any moves in that direction would lower the black population of the fourth, which at the time, I was uncomfortable dropping to low. So I guess you can say these maps are 6 D, 4 R, 1 D leaning Tossup, though more aggressive lines in the Tidewater could have solidified VA - 02.

Obviously when I am cutting a county, I am assuming that growth is evenly dispersed, a faulty assumption at best. However, it is too time consuming and impossible to find data of local divisions, so this is the best we can do right now.



VA - 01: R+11.5
VA - 02: D+1.4
VA - 03: D+8.9, 41.5% Black, 40.2% BVAP
VA - 04: D+13.1, 50.2% Black, 48.4% BVAP
VA - 05: R+11.3
VA - 06: R+15
VA - 07: D+5.4
VA - 08: D+15.6
VA - 09: R+19.9
VA - 10: D+11.6
VA - 11: D+12.3, 48% White



VA - 01: R+11.4
VA - 02: D+1.4
VA - 03: D+10.3, 44% Black, 42.6% BVAP
VA - 04: D+11.6, 48% Black, 46.4% BVAP
VA - 05: R+12.2
VA - 06: R+14.6
VA - 07: D+5.2
VA - 08: D+13.9
VA - 09: R+19.5
VA - 10: D+8.9
VA - 11: D+18, 48% White

Now I was going to move onto a fair map, however knowing now that I could get away with lower BVAP district, I may see if I can draw an even more aggressive map and try for a AA fair 8-3...

[Oryxslayer]

This would be 7 Safe D, 1 Leans D, 3 Safe R map.

Districts 3 & 4 are about 40% black and would probably elect a black Democrat.

The yellow district in the middle is the leans D seat, and believe it or not, it looks like Hillary barely did a little better than Obama there by widening his margins in Albemarle/Charlottesville.

What is this, a congressional map for ants?

[Oryxslayer]

I'm inspired to draw a 9-2 Virginia now. Don't think it's possible? I'm going to draw 6 NOVA bacon strips and keep VA-2, 3 and 4. 7-1-3 is way too generous to Republicans.

And I could draw a 27-0 map of NY with bacon strips from the city. Doesn't make it all that practical. Something like that belongs i. Kamilas thread.

[Oryxslayer]

Hey PNM, wgats the 2012/16 PVI of that map - it seems real nice btw. Ever since DRA got most of the states updated with such numbers, its kinda the go-to baseline for judging district partisan lean.

[Oryxslayer]

Hey PNM, wgats the 2012/16 PVI of that map - it seems real nice btw. Ever since DRA got most of the states updated with such numbers, its kinda the go-to baseline for judging district partisan lean.

I don't know unfortunately. I can calculate it if you give me an hour or two. But it should be pretty easy for the most part since the only split counties are Fairfax, Chesterfield and Henrico. I don't see a court striking this sinister beauty down. I do know that Clinton and Northam won the seven safe D seats by double digits and both won the swing seat, CD-7. That should give you an idea of how powerful it is.

Hold on - DRA VA has this now in the system:



Since the time I took that picture, the data has been expanded to include two decimal places. So wait, are you like using a different version of DRA or something - 2.2 has this data.