If Trump loses, would Trump be the last Republican president for a generation?

[BaldEagle1991]

Supposedly he loses in 2020, would he be the last GOP President for a generation, or two?

[TPIG]

Just like Bush was supposedly the last one for a generation because of the emergence of the unstoppable Obama coalition? The fact that Trump won, even with his unpopularity, shows that if Republicans nominate someone less toxic to large swaths of the public, they can still win (even a majority of the popular vote).

[Sir Mohamed]

No, I don't think so, especially since last year's upset. The best scenario for Dems long-term I see is a 1980 redux: Challenger beats unpopular incumbent president, whose party controlled the WH for only fours and came in as an outsider, and then the new president gets reelected four years later. In 2028, the sitting vice president gets elected and wins a third term for his party, but then loses reelection to a more moderate opposition.

[Rookie Yinzer]

No. I expect a two-term Democratic President after Trump’s one term. And then 2028 will be pure toss up.

[Karpatsky]

Trump-style Republicans would probably be discredited for a while, but not the party as a whole. And you can bet they'll be back again someday - people have terribly short memories.

[beaver2.0]

No.

[Mr. Smith]

I'd give it 12 years, by then the GOP will have moved far enough left and elected the moderate they need.

[mvd10]

Nah, within 5 days Republicans would have forgotten him. Give it another 10 and the rest of the nation also would have forgotten him. Roy Moore ends up landsliding Warren in 2024 and Trump becomes part of the resistance by #Persisting and calling Moore a bad guy in a classy rhetorical masterpiece.

The first part is actually serious btw.

[Pyro]

No. I expect a two-term Democratic President after Trump’s one term. And then 2028 will be pure toss up.

[tallguy23]

No. People's memories are short.

[I’m not Stu]

I'd give it 12 years, by then the GOP will have moved far enough left and elected the moderate they need.

[adrac]

12 years tops

[Webnicz]

12 years is basically a generation in a political cycle. So 12 years.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

12 years tops

[libertpaulian]

No, I don't think so, especially since last year's upset. The best scenario for Dems long-term I see is a 1980 redux: Challenger beats unpopular incumbent president, whose party controlled the WH for only fours and came in as an outsider, and then the new president gets reelected four years later. In 2028, the sitting vice president gets elected and wins a third term for his party, but then loses reelection to a more moderate opposition.

While I see your Reagan-Bush-Clinton analogy, you also have to remember that the nation was already realigned ideologically, meaning that despite a Democrat being able to come to power a mere 12 years later, said Dem could only do so under the terms of the Reagan Realignment.

Assuming 2020 is the Dems' 1980, perhaps said Dem will have moved the nation enough to the left that the Republican could only run slightly to the right of Eisenhower in order to win significantly.

[dw93]

No. The GOP would re invent itself, and bounce back no later than 2036, and the party would reinvent itself by either  returning to it's 1952-76 days, or it'll become more libertarian.

[Sestak]

No. The GOP would re invent itself, and bounce back no later than 2036, and the party would reinvent itself by either  returning to it's 1952-76 days, or it'll become more libertarian.

2036? I think you're selling them short, they'd do better than that. If they didn't, they'll be replaced by a new opposition party.

[Lechasseur]

Just like Bush was supposedly the last one for a generation because of the emergence of the unstoppable Obama coalition? The fact that Trump won, even with his unpopularity, shows that if Republicans nominate someone less toxic to large swaths of the public, they can still win (even a majority of the popular vote).

[dw93]

No. The GOP would re invent itself, and bounce back no later than 2036, and the party would reinvent itself by either  returning to it's 1952-76 days, or it'll become more libertarian.

2036? I think you're selling them short, they'd do better than that. If they didn't, they'll be replaced by a new opposition party.

Was the GOP replaced with a new opposition party after being defeated 4 times by FDR and again by Truman just 4 years later? Would the Dems have been replaced by a new opposition had Bush 41 been re elected in 1992 (which looked very likely through 1991 and even early 1992)? Based on history, and fairly recent history at that,  I'm not underestimating them at all.

[Deblano]

No. I expect a two-term Democratic President after Trump’s one term. And then 2028 will be pure toss up.

[MarkD]

No. I expect a two-term Democratic President after Trump’s one term. And then 2028 will be pure toss up.

[History505]

No.

[SWE]

Hard to see the GOP going that long without rigging an election.

[MarkD]

Hard to see the GOP going that long without rigging an election.

The team of Roberts, Kennedy, Thomas, Alito, and Gorsuch can help in any pinch.

[pbrower2a]

Trump 2017 (R), incumbent
Obama (D) 8 years
Dubya (R) 8 years
Clinton (D) 8 years
Reagan/GHWB (R) 12 years
Carter (D) 4 years
Nixon/Ford (R) 8 years
Kennedy/Johnson (D) 8 years
Eisenhower (R) 8 years
FDR/Truman (D) 20 years
Harding/Coolidge/Hoover (R) 12 years
Wilson (D) 8 years
McKinley/TR/Taft (R) 16 years

If you can see any pattern in this, then tell me.

It is far too early to count the GOP out.  Even if Trump proves to be a disaster as a President, the GOP will survive. Even if it goes into the woodwork as it did in the 1930s it will be welcome to people shut out of the political process by machine politics, people outside the D coalition, and radical reformers, Left as well as Right, who run afoul of the Democratic Party.