Germany: Coalition Negociations collapse, what next?

[Lechasseur]

Well negociations to form a ''Jamaica'' coalition government between the CDU/CSU, FDP and Greens collapsed the other day when the FDP walked out. The President of Germany Frank-Walter Steinmeier is not keen on new elections because he thinks the AfD will gain even more seats, and the SPD don't want to enter a grand coalition with the CDU/CSU again because they think that's the reason their share of the vote continues to decline. So what happens next?

[NewYorkExpress]

Merkel probably leads a minority government, something I doubt she really wants to do...though it's also possible she stands down as Chancellor/leader of CDU to allow new talks to develop.

[Lechasseur]

Merkel probably leads a minority government, something I doubt she really wants to do...though it's also possible she stands down as Chancellor/leader of CDU to allow new talks to develop.

I think the former is most likely in the short term but the minority government probably doesn't last more than a year. Ideally I think she should step down, I think it would be best for all parties involved but she won't unless she's forced out by her own party.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-politics/merkel-points-to-grand-coalition-with-social-democrats-idUSKBN1DP0BP

The SPD now says it's willing to talk turkey...so Merkel isn't politically dead yet.

[Former President tack50]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-politics/merkel-points-to-grand-coalition-with-social-democrats-idUSKBN1DP0BP

The SPD now says it's willing to talk turkey...so Merkel isn't politically dead yet.

Merkel might not be politically dead, but if the SPD does a coalition with her, SPD will be dead. They'll be lucky to even get double digits by the next election if they go into a grand coalition.

IMO Germany really needs to experience a minority government. Merkel has a good enough plurality, she could just do some stuff with SPD, others alongside FDP and AfD and other stuff with FDP and the Greens. A minority government will actually give her more stability and flexibility, not less.

[President Johnson]

I think we'll end up with a minority government or new elections. The SPD base will vote against a grand coalition.

[Lechasseur]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-politics/merkel-points-to-grand-coalition-with-social-democrats-idUSKBN1DP0BP

The SPD now says it's willing to talk turkey...so Merkel isn't politically dead yet.

Merkel might not be politically dead, but if the SPD does a coalition with her, SPD will be dead. They'll be lucky to even get double digits by the next election if they go into a grand coalition.

IMO Germany really needs to experience a minority government. Merkel has a good enough plurality, she could just do some stuff with SPD, others alongside FDP and AfD and other stuff with FDP and the Greens. A minority government will actually give her more stability and flexibility, not less.

I agree with you on both counts

[Kingpoleon]

A grand coalition basically guarantees a Jamaica or traffic light coalition next election.

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

Hopefully a grand coalition resulting in the total collapse of the SDP next election.

[mvd10]

A grand coalition basically guarantees a Jamaica or traffic light coalition next election.

Or Black-Yellow. One can dream .

[TheSaint250]

Or Black-Yellow. One can dream .

[darklordoftech]

Merkel might not be politically dead, but if the SPD does a coalition with her, SPD will be dead. They'll be lucky to even get double digits by the next election if they go into a grand coalition.

Why are grand coalitions so toxic to the SPD electorally?

[Tintrlvr]

Merkel might not be politically dead, but if the SPD does a coalition with her, SPD will be dead. They'll be lucky to even get double digits by the next election if they go into a grand coalition.

Why are grand coalitions so toxic to the SPD electorally?

Because people voting for the SPD want a left-wing government and have left-wing alternatives (the Greens and Linke). It wouldn't be a problem (for them, but probably for the CDU) if the SPD were leading a grand coalition, but as the junior partner they're just tagging along to a fundamentally right-wing government that their voters don't want.

[IceAgeComing]

Why are grand coalitions so toxic to the SPD electorally?

The general trend globally at the moment seems to be that the junior partner in any coalition takes a beating at the next election.  Its especially the case for grand coalitions - the SPD can't credibly stand as any form of alternative government if they have to also defend their record in government.  Happened in the Netherlands as well: the PvdA basically lost a significant amount of even their core support and aren't even the top left party in the Netherlands, which is arguably bad for the left generally since sadly its much harder for harder left parties to get enough support in order to start forming government.  This is why, in the absence of a World War or some other serious crisis that requires the formation of a government like that, generally it should be avoided.  It all goes back to 2013 and the stupid decision of the SPD to not even talk to Die Linke about forming a government of the left with the Greens and instead instantly going back to the Grand Coalition - they'd have probably lost support as well if they'd done that but at least they'd have led a government for a few years, rather than been under Merkel for four and then losing more support than she did...

[Kingpoleon]

Why are grand coalitions so toxic to the SPD electorally?

The general trend globally at the moment seems to be that the junior partner in any coalition takes a beating at the next election.  Its especially the case for grand coalitions - the SPD can't credibly stand as any form of alternative government if they have to also defend their record in government.  Happened in the Netherlands as well: the PvdA basically lost a significant amount of even their core support and aren't even the top left party in the Netherlands, which is arguably bad for the left generally since sadly its much harder for harder left parties to get enough support in order to start forming government.  This is why, in the absence of a World War or some other serious crisis that requires the formation of a government like that, generally it should be avoided.  It all goes back to 2013 and the stupid decision of the SPD to not even talk to Die Linke about forming a government of the left with the Greens and instead instantly going back to the Grand Coalition - they'd have probably lost support as well if they'd done that but at least they'd have led a government for a few years, rather than been under Merkel for four and then losing more support than she did...

I think the problem in 2013 was Sigmar Gabriel, quite understandably, being unwilling to have a SDP Leader besides him serve as Chancellor. In my opinion, in 2009 they should have agreed to a coalition with FDP, promising major concessions, and the Greens, while getting The Left to give supply to the government. They had a much better shot at a coalition then than in 2013.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Yeah if SPD got behind another grand coalition I'd probably suck it up and vote Green next time. I dislike the Greens for a variety of reasons, and tend to be turned off to Green parties in general just because of just how AMAZINGLY TERRIBLE the American Greens are, but since the Stasi party isn't an option...