1964: Nelson Rockefeller instead of Barry Goldwater

[darklordoftech]

What if Nelson Rockefeller defeated Goldwater for the GOP nomination?

[Lechasseur]

I could see Rockefeller taking Upper New England, Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Utah, California and Oregon; Johnson wins everywhere else (if a conservative 3rd party candidate runs, he probably wins the Deep South).

[Mr. Smith]

Johnson/Humphrey
Rockefeller/Romney
Wallace/Byrd

No way does Utah go for LBJ in this case, it took Goldwater's anti-CRA stances to even remotely move the already steadfast R Mormons there. Any other Republican would've landed it easily.

All the same, LBJ was at the height of popularity that I don't even think Rocky could quite pull it off, and he'd be easy to label an elitist to the heartlands.

[President Johnson]

Third party ticket would have been inevitable. Neither LBJ nor Rocky was electable for the Deep South. Rocky wins some states in New England the Rocky Mountains, as well as Florida in race were three candidates takes almost a third of the vote, and LBJ clinches the rest.

✓ President Lyndon B. Johnson (D-TX)/Senator Hubert Humphrey (D-MN): 435 EV. (54.42%)
Governor Nelson A. Rockefeller (R-NY)/Senator Thomas Kuchel (R-CA): 56 EV. (40.23%)
Former Governor George Wallace (I-AL)/Senator Strom Thurmond (I-SC): 47 EV. (5.36%)

[darklordoftech]

I wonder if Goldwater's supporters would claim that the Republican primaries were rigged.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

I wonder if Goldwater's supporters would claim that the Republican primaries were rigged.

As I recall, the strength of Goldwater’s nomination rested on his campaign’s maneuvering at precinct and state conventions. His primary victories only served to legitimize his coronation.

[darklordoftech]

I wonder if Goldwater's supporters would claim that the Republican primaries were rigged.

As I recall, the strength of Goldwater’s nomination rested on his campaign’s maneuvering at precinct and state conventions. His primary victories only served to legitimize his coronation.

In that case, maybe they'd claim that the precint and state conventions were rigged?

[Kingpoleon]

235: Lyndon B. Johnson/Hubert Humphrey - 41.5%
206: Nelson Rockefeller/Mark Hatfield - 40.4%
97: George Wallace/James M. Thomson - 17.8%

Wallace holds a meeting of the most powerful Southern Democrats, including John Sparkman, Harry Byrd Jr., William Battle, George Smathers, Happy Chandler, Orval Faubus, and Strom Thurmond. They agree on a coalition to take down Johnson. With these organizations working together, Johnson is lucky to hold onto Oklahoma, Arkansas, Kentucky, and Missouri.

Rockefeller requests Hatfield to join the ticket, as Hatfield is a friend of the Buckleys and evangelicals. Rockefeller uses Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, Barry Goldwater, Charles Halleck, Gerald Ford, and Norris Cotton as some of his most prominent surrogates. With such a wide coalition, Rockefeller unites the Republican Party by pledging to appoint Norris Cotton, Barry Goldwater, Charles Halleck, and James Buckley to top Cabinet positions.

After the election, with a deadlock in the House becoming apparent, Rockefeller and Johnson agree to a deal: Johnson will be elected President, Hatfield will be elected Vice President, Charles Halleck will become Attorney General, and Henry Cabot Lodge Jr. will be given the position of Secretary of State. This is significantly fewer concessions than the Southern Democrats wanted, as they wanted a moderate/conservative on civil rights appointed Attorney General, and the non-enforcement of several civil rights bills.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

235: Lyndon B. Johnson/Hubert Humphrey - 41.5%
206: Nelson Rockefeller/Mark Hatfield - 40.4%
97: George Wallace/James M. Thomson - 17.8%

Wallace holds a meeting of the most powerful Southern Democrats, including John Sparkman, Harry Byrd Jr., William Battle, George Smathers, Happy Chandler, Orval Faubus, and Strom Thurmond. They agree on a coalition to take down Johnson. With these organizations working together, Johnson is lucky to hold onto Oklahoma, Arkansas, Kentucky, and Missouri.

Rockefeller requests Hatfield to join the ticket, as Hatfield is a friend of the Buckleys and evangelicals. Rockefeller uses Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, Barry Goldwater, Charles Halleck, Gerald Ford, and Norris Cotton as some of his most prominent surrogates. With such a wide coalition, Rockefeller unites the Republican Party by pledging to appoint Norris Cotton, Barry Goldwater, Charles Halleck, and James Buckley to top Cabinet positions.

After the election, with a deadlock in the House becoming apparent, Rockefeller and Johnson agree to a deal: Johnson will be elected President, Hatfield will be elected Vice President, Charles Halleck will become Attorney General, and Henry Cabot Lodge Jr. will be given the position of Secretary of State. This is significantly fewer concessions than the Southern Democrats wanted, as they wanted a moderate/conservative on civil rights appointed Attorney General, and the non-enforcement of several civil rights bills.

>1964
>LBJ not winning in a landslide

[Kingpoleon]

The only possible way Rockefeller wins the nomination is if he unites the party big time. Goldwater wouldn’t accept the Vice Presidency, Nixon would like to be the U. N. Ambassador, and if those two act as major surrogates for Rockefeller, I can’t see Johnson cracking 270, especially if he finds Allan Shivers, Coke Stevenson, the Byrd Organization, the machines of Russell, Wallace, Maddox, Long, and Faubus, and most segregationist Democrats up against him.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

The only possible way Rockefeller wins the nomination is if he unites the party big time. Goldwater wouldn’t accept the Vice Presidency, Nixon would like to be the U. N. Ambassador, and if those two act as major surrogates for Rockefeller, I can’t see Johnson cracking 270, especially if he finds Allan Shivers, Coke Stevenson, the Byrd Organization, the machines of Russell, Wallace, Maddox, Long, and Faubus, and most segregationist Democrats up against him.

The only way Johnson loses in 1964, barring him murdering someone or being accused of rape or something that awful, is if Jesus Christ himself is the Republican nominee.

[Lord Admirale]

This is the best I can see Rockefeller doing.

President Lyndon B. Johnson (D-TX)/Senator Hubert Humphrey (D-MN) - 283 EV
Governor Nelson A. Rockefeller (R-NY)/Governor Mark Hatfield (R-OR) 220 EV
Governor George C. Wallace (I-AL)/Governor Ross Barnett (I-MS) - 35 EV

[Kingpoleon]

This is the best I can see Rockefeller doing.

President Lyndon B. Johnson (D-TX)/Senator Hubert Humphrey (D-MN) - 283 EV
Governor Nelson A. Rockefeller (R-NY)/Governor Mark Hatfield (R-OR) 220 EV
Governor George C. Wallace (I-AL)/Governor Ross Barnett (I-MS) - 35 EV

I really can't see Johnson cracking three hundred electoral votes, as Rockefeller must have ran a top-tier campaign, esp. an impressive infrastructure, if he's won the primaries.

[AtorBoltox]

This is the best I can see Rockefeller doing.

President Lyndon B. Johnson (D-TX)/Senator Hubert Humphrey (D-MN) - 283 EV
Governor Nelson A. Rockefeller (R-NY)/Governor Mark Hatfield (R-OR) 220 EV
Governor George C. Wallace (I-AL)/Governor Ross Barnett (I-MS) - 35 EV

I really can't see Johnson cracking three hundred electoral votes, as Rockefeller must have ran a top-tier campaign, esp. an impressive infrastructure, if he's won the primaries.

Why not? Great economic conditions, the legacy of JFK, no foreign turmoil. Why on earth wouldn't Johnson get at least 300 electoral votes?

[MATTROSE94]

President Lyndon Johnson (D-TX)/Senator Hubert Humphrey (D-MN): 448 EV (56%)
Governor Nelson Rockefeller (R-NY)/Former Governor Cecil Underwood (R-WV): 73 EV (36%)
John Kasper (National States Rights-NY)/J.B. Stoner (National States Rights-GA): 17 EV (7%)
Others: 0 EV (1%)

Nelso Rockefeller does a bit better than Barry Goldwater by holding onto Vermont, Indiana, Virginia, Florida, Oklahoma, Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, Kansas, and Nebraska, but performs incredibly poorly in the Deep South. The presence of Cecil Underwood on the Republican ticket also makes West Virginia quite a bit closer, but President Johnson ends up carrying it by a 55-43 margin.

[Agonized-Statism]

President Lyndon Johnson (D-TX) / Senator Hubert Humphrey (D-MN) ✓
Governor Nelson Rockefeller (R-NY) / Congressman Gerald Ford (R-MI)
Fmr. Governor Ross Barnett (SR-MS) / Fmr. Lt. Governor Garland Byrd (SR-GA)