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  2018 Senate Predictions & Analysis
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Latest 2018 Predictions (Highest Scores)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
DabbingSanta (L-ON)MapProfile 10-30 6 Even 9 (0) 24 (0) 2 (0) 0
reyndani (I-WI)MapProfile 11-05 5 R +1 10 (+1) 23 (-1) 2 (0) 0
xingkerui (D-WA)MapProfile 11-06 18 Even 9 (0) 24 (0) 2 (0) 0
anna0kear (I-NH)MapProfile 09-05 2 R +2 11 (+2) 22 (-2) 2 (0) 0
Calthrina950 (I-CO)MapProfile 10-25 2 Even 9 (0) 24 (0) 2 (0) 0
Lakigigar (I-BEL)MapProfile 10-26 2 R +2 11 (+2) 22 (-2) 2 (0) 0
IndyRep (R-MT)MapProfile 11-05 11 R +2 11 (+2) 22 (-2) 2 (0) 0
Ronnie (D-CA)MapProfile 11-05 15 Even 9 (0) 24 (0) 2 (0) 0
ryer (R-VA)Map 11-05 3 R +2 11 (+2) 22 (-2) 2 (0) 0
thebadger (I-GBR)MapProfile 11-05 4 Even 9 (0) 24 (0) 2 (0) 0
Latest 2018 Predictions (Most Recent Entries)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
jastone0493 (D-CO)MapProfile 11-06 5 D +1 8 (-1) 25 (+1) 2 (0) 0
Lechasseur (R-FL)MapProfile 11-06 4 R +5 14 (+5) 19 (-5) 2 (0) 0
buckstopper (D-MO)Map 11-06 1 D +3 6 (-3) 27 (+3) 2 (0) 0
AntonioV (D-CA)MapProfile 11-06 14 Even 9 (0) 24 (0) 2 (0) 0
New Canadaland (I-ON)MapProfile 11-06 6 D +1 8 (-1) 25 (+1) 2 (0) 0
SecureAmerica (R-NM)MapProfile 11-06 1 R +4 13 (+4) 20 (-4) 2 (0) 0
tomhguy (L-GBR)MapProfile 11-06 5 R +1 10 (+1) 23 (-1) 2 (0) 0
OctoCube (R-MA)MapProfile 11-06 2 R +3 12 (+3) 21 (-3) 2 (0) 0
trippytropicana (D-NC)MapProfile 11-06 8 D +1 8 (-1) 25 (+1) 2 (0) 0
WaterHazard (I-IL)MapProfile 11-06 5 D +1 8 (-1) 25 (+1) 2 (0) 0
Latest 2018 Predictions (Most Recent Comments)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
bluemcdowell (D-WV)
by man_of_honor885 on 2019-02-18 @ 15:35:23
Map 11-06 135 Even 9 (0) 24 (0) 2 (0) 8
edwardsna (R-NY)
by bluemcdowell on 2019-01-24 @ 01:34:57
MapProfile 11-05 10 R +3 12 (+3) 21 (-3) 2 (0) 2
man_of_honor885 (C-PA)
by bluemcdowell on 2019-01-24 @ 01:32:05
Map 11-06 11 Even 9 (0) 24 (0) 2 (0) 3
Olawakandi (D-CA)
by bluemcdowell on 2019-01-24 @ 01:26:30
MapProfile 11-05 201 D +5 4 (-5) 29 (+5) 2 (0) 3
man_of_honor885 (C-PA)
by man_of_honor885 on 2018-11-06 @ 15:31:40
Map 11-02 10 R +1 10 (+1) 23 (-1) 2 (0) 4
darthpi (D-PA)
by darthpi on 2018-11-05 @ 20:40:34
MapProfile 11-05 26 D +1 8 (-1) 25 (+1) 2 (0) 1
Nik (R-TN)
by man_of_honor885 on 2018-11-05 @ 16:44:27
MapProfile 11-02 7 R +7 16 (+7) 17 (-7) 2 (0) 3
Du_Chateau (I-OH)
by Du_Chateau on 2018-11-03 @ 19:41:23
Map 11-03 3 D +3 6 (-3) 27 (+3) 2 (0) 2
Politician (D-MA)
by Nik on 2018-11-03 @ 14:53:14
MapProfile 11-03 80 D +1 8 (-1) 25 (+1) 2 (0) 1
Olawakandi (D-CA)
by President_91 on 2018-11-03 @ 11:27:53
MapProfile 11-02 199 D +4 5 (-4) 28 (+4) 2 (0) 1
Latest Discussion Topics
Author Topic: 2018 Senate Predictions & Analysis  (Read 22546 times)
Dave Leip
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« on: November 13, 2017, 09:59:30 pm »

Hi,
The 2018 US Senate predictions are now available here
Enjoy,
Dave
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heatcharger
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« Reply #1 on: November 13, 2017, 10:55:42 pm »
« Edited: November 13, 2017, 11:12:53 pm by heatcharger »

Hi,

Will the 2018 Gubernatorial predictions be available soon as well?

Thanks,
heatcharger

Also can I get permission to add polls to the database?
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #2 on: November 14, 2017, 04:17:05 am »

Here's where we are right now in my predictions. Obviously a lot can change in a year. Republicans currently projected to have a net gain of 1 seat.

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#Kavanaugh For Prison
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« Reply #3 on: November 14, 2017, 03:08:37 pm »

Image Link

Image Link
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The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow
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« Reply #4 on: November 15, 2017, 09:07:46 pm »

Currently I think that Democrats lose in MO and IN but get pickups in NV and AZ. It's very plausible that Donnelly could survive, so either no net change or D+1 for 2018.

I also think that AL-SEN race is Tilt D at this point (still a tossup, but if I had give it a tilt either way, I would say D). So counting 2017, after the 2018 elections I could see D+2 as a best-case realistic scenario for the Democrats.
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AP
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« Reply #5 on: November 16, 2017, 10:45:45 pm »

Mine:
Image Link
Image Link

Also, add Alabama as a 40% Lean D pickup.
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« Reply #6 on: November 26, 2017, 05:27:30 am »

All the competitive races

Arizona

Dem: 48% (winner)
Rep: 48%

Florida

Nelson: 52%
Scott: 47%

Indiana

Rep: 53%
Donnelly: 45%

Missouri

Rep: 51%
McCaskill: 45%

Montana


Tester: 53%
Rep: 42%

Nevada

Dem: 49%
Heller: 46%

North Dakota

Heitkamp: 54%
Rep: 42%

Ohio

Brown: 49%
Rep: 48%

Pennsylvania

Casey: 52%
Rep: 45%

Texas

Cruz: 53%
Dem: 44%

Virginia

Kaine: 54%
Rep: 44%

Wisconsin

Baldwin: 52%
Rep: 46%

In summary: R's pick up Indiana and Missouri while D's pick up Arizona and Nevada, ends up being a wash 52/48 R Senate. I expect a good year for Democrats in 2018, and with the way the Senate is most of what they'll have to do is minimize their losses.
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« Reply #7 on: December 06, 2017, 03:47:24 am »

Republican pickups: WV, IN, MO, ND, MT, FL, OH, WI
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America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗
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« Reply #8 on: December 06, 2017, 11:44:42 pm »

Republican pickups: WV, IN, MO, ND, MT, FL, OH, WI
Stop
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#Kavanaugh For Prison
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« Reply #9 on: January 01, 2018, 06:20:59 pm »
« Edited: January 01, 2018, 06:24:42 pm by Solid4096 »

Why did 270towin add some non-incumbent candidates to the candidate summaries on their interactive map?

List:

R-MO: Josh Hawley
D-TN: Phil Bredesen
D-TX: Beto O Rourke
D-UT: Jenny Wilson
D-NV: Jacky Rosen

These candidates are listed as the nominees in the interactive map:

https://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/
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America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗
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« Reply #10 on: January 01, 2018, 06:27:58 pm »

Why did 270towin add some non-incumbent candidates to the candidate summaries on their interactive map?

List:

R-MO: Josh Hawley
D-TN: Phil Bredesen
D-TX: Beto O Rourke
D-UT: Jenny Wilson
D-NV: Jacky Rosen

These candidates are listed as the nominees in the interactive map:

https://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/
Obviously an error.
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#Kavanaugh For Prison
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« Reply #11 on: January 01, 2018, 06:32:41 pm »

Why did 270towin add some non-incumbent candidates to the candidate summaries on their interactive map?

List:

R-MO: Josh Hawley
D-TN: Phil Bredesen
D-TX: Beto O Rourke
D-UT: Jenny Wilson
D-NV: Jacky Rosen

These candidates are listed as the nominees in the interactive map:

https://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/
Obviously an error.
Probably not, since all of these candidates they just listed are probably more likely to be nominated than any single other candidate (and I would rate all except Josh Hawley as more likely than all other candidates combined).
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« Reply #12 on: January 01, 2018, 06:33:26 pm »

Why did 270towin add some non-incumbent candidates to the candidate summaries on their interactive map?

List:

R-MO: Josh Hawley
D-TN: Phil Bredesen
D-TX: Beto O Rourke
D-UT: Jenny Wilson
D-NV: Jacky Rosen

These candidates are listed as the nominees in the interactive map:

https://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/
Obviously an error.
Probably not, since all of these candidates they just listed are probably more likely to be nominated than any single other candidate (and I would rate all except Josh Hawley as more likely than all other candidates combined).
Ah, still seems a bit premature though since the primaries haven't happened yet.
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Joey1996
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« Reply #13 on: January 05, 2018, 12:12:01 am »

Is Beto a strong candidate? I know Cruz is unpopular but it isn't like he's Roy Moore, Beto doesn't seem like that charismatic a guy unlike, say Julian Castro.
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« Reply #14 on: January 05, 2018, 02:18:55 am »
« Edited: February 11, 2018, 01:40:04 pm by Senator Pericles of Fremont »

Is Beto a strong candidate? I know Cruz is unpopular but it isn't like he's Roy Moore, Beto doesn't seem like that charismatic a guy unlike, say Julian Castro.

Texas is less Republican than Alabama though Trump only won there by 9% and it's trending D.
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« Reply #15 on: February 11, 2018, 02:25:37 am »

Is Beto a strong candidate? I know Cruz is unpopular but it isn't like he's Roy Moore, Beto doesn't seem like that charismatic a guy unlike, say Julian Castro.

Extremists in moderate states lose in wave elections that do not go their party's way. Texas i s going moderate.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #16 on: February 13, 2018, 09:52:12 pm »

Dems may win the majority of the Senate with 50-52 seats and TN is virtually a tossup.
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ChelseaT
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« Reply #17 on: May 09, 2018, 07:57:43 pm »

GOP picks up Indiana, North Dakota, and Missouri. Dems pick up Nevada,  and maybe Tennessee.
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MB
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« Reply #18 on: May 10, 2018, 06:30:08 pm »

Is Beto a strong candidate? I know Cruz is unpopular but it isn't like he's Roy Moore, Beto doesn't seem like that charismatic a guy unlike, say Julian Castro.

Extremists in moderate states lose in wave elections that do not go their party's way. Texas i s going moderate.
Texas isn't going moderate, it'll still be a battle of the left wing of the Democratic party vs. the right wing of the Republican party, with little ground in between.
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MB
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« Reply #19 on: May 10, 2018, 06:33:25 pm »

Anyway, I'm predicting Dems will pick up at least Arizona, Tennessee, and Nevada. Putting Texas at Lean R for now and we'll have to see about MS-special.

The GOP may pick up one seat, but it won't be enough to hold their majority.
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« Reply #20 on: May 11, 2018, 12:55:23 pm »

GOP: IN, WV
Democrats: TN, AZ, NV

Result: 50-50
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #21 on: May 11, 2018, 06:27:57 pm »

As of May 11:

R GAIN

Indiana: Braun (R) - 50, Donnelly (D) - 46
Missouri: Hawley (R) - 49, McCaskill (D) - 47

D GAIN

Nevada: Rosen (D) - 51, Heller (R) - 44
Arizona: Sinema (D) - 50, McSally (R) - 46

D HOLD

North Dakota: Heitkamp (D) - 53, Cramer (R) - 47
West Virginia: Manchin (D) - 51, Morrisey (R) - 45
Florida: Nelson (D) - 50, Scott (R) - 48
Ohio: Brown (D) - 51, Renacci (R) - 47
Montana: Tester (D) - 49, Rosendale (R) - 45 Tester (D) - 91, Breckenridge (L) - 9

R HOLD

Tennessee: Blackburn (R) - 51, Bredesen (D) - 46
Texas: Cruz (R) - 52, O'Rourke (D) - 45
MS-Special (Runoff): Hyde-Smith (R) - 54, Espy (D) - 46
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« Reply #22 on: May 12, 2018, 01:27:59 pm »

Why is Tennessee a tossup for many people right now (don't really understand the circumstances there)?
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« Reply #23 on: May 12, 2018, 07:09:27 pm »

For races which I'm not rating as "Safe":

Arizona
Sinema - 50%
McSally - 46%

Florida
Nelson - 52%
Scott - 47%

Indiana
Braun - 49%
Donnelly - 47%

Mississippi Special (run-off)
Hyde-Smith - 54%
Epsy - 46%

Missouri
McCaskill - 48%
Hawley - 47%

Montana
Tester - 50%
Rosendale - 46%

Nevada
Rosen - 51%
Heller - 45%

UTDH - 95%
None of these - 4.7%
Rosen - 0.3%

North Dakota
Heitkamp - 50%
Cramer - 48%

Ohio
Brown - 52%
Renacci - 44%

Pennsylvania
Casey - 55%
Barletta - 42%

Tennessee
Blackburn - 49%
Breseden - 46%

Texas
Cruz - 52%
O'Rourke - 44%

West Virginia
Manchin - 50%
Morrisey - 45%

Wisconsin
Baldwin - 53%
Nicholson - 44%
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« Reply #24 on: May 12, 2018, 07:48:39 pm »

Why is Tennessee a tossup for many people right now (don't really understand the circumstances there)?

Bredesen, the D candidate, is a relatively popular former governor. And Blackburn, the R candidate, is crazy and somewhat gaffe-prone.
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