2018 Senate Predictions & Analysis
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Latest 2018 Predictions (Highest Scores)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
DabbingSanta (R-ON)MapProfile 10-30 6 Even 9 (0) 24 (0) 2 (0) 0
reyndani (I-WI)MapProfile 11-05 5 R +1 10 (+1) 23 (-1) 2 (0) 0
xingkerui ()MapProfile 11-06 18 Even 9 (0) 24 (0) 2 (0) 0
anna0kear (I-NH)MapProfile 09-05 2 R +2 11 (+2) 22 (-2) 2 (0) 0
Calthrina950 (I-CO)MapProfile 10-25 2 Even 9 (0) 24 (0) 2 (0) 0
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Ronnie (D-CA)MapProfile 11-05 15 Even 9 (0) 24 (0) 2 (0) 0
ryer (R-VA)Map 11-05 3 R +2 11 (+2) 22 (-2) 2 (0) 0
thebadger (I-GBR)MapProfile 11-05 4 Even 9 (0) 24 (0) 2 (0) 0
Latest 2018 Predictions (Most Recent Entries)
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jastone0493 (D-CO)MapProfile 11-06 5 D +1 8 (-1) 25 (+1) 2 (0) 0
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buckstopper (D-MO)Map 11-06 1 D +3 6 (-3) 27 (+3) 2 (0) 0
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New Canadaland (I-ON)MapProfile 11-06 6 D +1 8 (-1) 25 (+1) 2 (0) 0
SecureAmerica (R-NM)MapProfile 11-06 1 R +4 13 (+4) 20 (-4) 2 (0) 0
tomhguy (L-GBR)MapProfile 11-06 5 R +1 10 (+1) 23 (-1) 2 (0) 0
OctoCube (R-MA)MapProfile 11-06 2 R +3 12 (+3) 21 (-3) 2 (0) 0
trippytropicana (D-NC)MapProfile 11-06 8 D +1 8 (-1) 25 (+1) 2 (0) 0
WaterHazard (I-IL)MapProfile 11-06 5 D +1 8 (-1) 25 (+1) 2 (0) 0
Latest 2018 Predictions (Most Recent Comments)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
deleteduser (I-WV)
by man_of_honor885 on 2019-02-18 @ 15:35:23
Map 11-06 135 Even 9 (0) 24 (0) 2 (0) 8
edwardsna (R-NY)
by deleteduser on 2019-01-24 @ 01:34:57
MapProfile 11-05 10 R +3 12 (+3) 21 (-3) 2 (0) 2
man_of_honor885 ()
by deleteduser on 2019-01-24 @ 01:32:05
Map 11-06 11 Even 9 (0) 24 (0) 2 (0) 3
Olawakandi (G-CA)
by deleteduser on 2019-01-24 @ 01:26:30
MapProfile 11-05 201 D +5 4 (-5) 29 (+5) 2 (0) 3
man_of_honor885 ()
by man_of_honor885 on 2018-11-06 @ 15:31:40
Map 11-02 10 R +1 10 (+1) 23 (-1) 2 (0) 4
darthpi (D-PA)
by darthpi on 2018-11-05 @ 20:40:34
MapProfile 11-05 26 D +1 8 (-1) 25 (+1) 2 (0) 1
Nik (R-TN)
by man_of_honor885 on 2018-11-05 @ 16:44:27
MapProfile 11-02 7 R +7 16 (+7) 17 (-7) 2 (0) 3
Du_Chateau (I-OH)
by Du_Chateau on 2018-11-03 @ 19:41:23
Map 11-03 3 D +3 6 (-3) 27 (+3) 2 (0) 2
Politician (--MA)
by Nik on 2018-11-03 @ 14:53:14
MapProfile 11-03 80 D +1 8 (-1) 25 (+1) 2 (0) 1
Olawakandi (G-CA)
by President_91 on 2018-11-03 @ 11:27:53
MapProfile 11-02 199 D +4 5 (-4) 28 (+4) 2 (0) 1
Latest Discussion Topics
Author Topic: 2018 Senate Predictions & Analysis  (Read 27911 times)
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
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« Reply #25 on: June 29, 2018, 09:12:47 PM »

Predictions are super broken right now.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #26 on: June 29, 2018, 09:23:09 PM »

Predictions are now being seen through a partisan lense rather than by polling, I have Dems losing ND and IN but gaing TX, TN, AZ, and NV😀
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
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« Reply #27 on: June 29, 2018, 09:24:40 PM »

Seems like Dave Liep closed predictions to start attempting to fix the glitches going on right now.
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #28 on: June 29, 2018, 10:27:50 PM »

Hi,
Predictions have been updated to include the senate special elections.
Please let me know if you find any issues.
Thanks,
Dave
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Nathan Towne
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« Reply #29 on: July 17, 2018, 03:29:02 PM »
« Edited: July 19, 2018, 07:51:32 AM by Nathan Towne »

I don't remember exactly what my username and password were for the Predictions page, but as far as Senate predictions are concerned, my current assessment would be something like this:

Confident Democrat:

Maine-Angus King (I)
Vermont-Bernie Sanders (I)
Massachusetts-Elizabeth Warren (D)
Connecticut-Chris Murphy (D)
Rhode Island-Sheldon Whitehouse (D)
New York-Kirsten Gillibrand (D)
New Jersey-Bob Menendez (D)
Maryland-Ben Cardin (D)
Delaware-Tom Carper (D)
Virginia-Tim Kaine (D)
Michigan-Debbie Stabenow (D)
Minnesota-Amy Klobuchar (D)
Minnesota Special Election-Tina Smith (D)
Washington-Maria Cantwell (D)
California-Dianne Feinstein (D)
New Mexico-Martin Heinrich (D)
Hawaii-Mazie Hirono (D)

Confident Republican:

Utah-Mitt Romney (R)
Wyoming-John Barrasso (R)
Nebraska-Deb Fischer (R)
Texas-Ted Cruz (R)
Mississippi-Roger Wicker (R)
Mississippi Special Election-Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)

Lean Democrat:

Wisconsin-Tammy Baldwin (D)
Nevada-Jacky Rosen (D)

Lean Republican:

Tennessee-Marsha Blackburn (R)
Missouri-Todd Hawley (R)
Indiana-Mike Braun (R)
North Dakota-Kevin Cramer (R)

Slight Lean Democrat:

Montana-Jon Tester
West Virginia-Joe Manchin
Ohio-Sherrod Brown (D)
Arizona-Kyrsten Sinema (D)

Slight Lean Republican:

Florida-Rick Scott (R)


That would be 53 Republican Senators and 45 Democratic Senators (47 including Senators Sanders and King) following the election.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #30 on: July 17, 2018, 08:27:24 PM »
« Edited: July 17, 2018, 08:30:39 PM by Cory Booker »

Safe Democratic
OH-Sherrod Brown
FL-Bill Nelson
MI-Debbie Stebenow
WI-Tammy Baldwin
WVA-Joe Manchin
MN Amy Khlobuchar
MN Special Tina Smith
PA Bob Casey Jr

Leans Democratic
AZ-Flake K.Sinema
NV-Heller J. Rosen

Slight Leaning Democratic

MO-Claire McCaskill
ND-Heitikamp
IN-Joe Donnelly
TN-Corker D pickup P Bredesen
TX-Cruz  D pickup upset Beto

Slight lean GOP
MT Tester-R pickup Rosendale
NJ Menendez pickup upset

Safe GOP
UT-Hatch Romney
NEB-Fisher
WY-Barasso
MS special Hyde-Smith
MS Wicker

51-49 DEM Control
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😥
andjey
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« Reply #31 on: July 18, 2018, 12:31:22 PM »
« Edited: October 03, 2018, 01:03:22 AM by АndriуValeriovich »

R gain: ND, MO
D gain: AZ, NV, TN
50-50
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #32 on: August 14, 2018, 10:55:55 AM »

Here's my first #take:



I mostly based myself on fundamentals and was as conservative as possible in my ratings (hence the inclusion of very long shots like WI, NJ and in the "lean" category).
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #33 on: October 02, 2018, 10:51:47 AM »
« Edited: October 02, 2018, 10:56:53 AM by ElectionsGuy »

Predicting margins for competitive races one month out.

AZ: 49-47 Sinema
FL: 51-48 Nelson

IN: 49-47 Donnelly
MN-S: 52-45 Smith
MO: 49-48 Hawley
MT: 49-46 Tester
NV: 48-45 Rosen

NJ: 53-46 Menendez
ND: 52-48 Cramer
OH: 54-44 Brown
TN: 52-46 Blackburn
TX: 52-47 Cruz

WV: 51-44 Manchin
WI: 54-45 Baldwin


MS-S: 40-34-24 Epsy - Hyde-Smith - McDaniel --> 57-43 Hyde-Smith
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #34 on: October 05, 2018, 01:23:07 AM »

Predicting margins for competitive races one month out.

AZ: 49-47 Sinema
FL: 51-48 Nelson

IN: 49-47 Donnelly
MN-S: 52-45 Smith
MO: 49-48 Hawley
MT: 49-46 Tester
NV: 48-45 Rosen

NJ: 53-46 Menendez
ND: 52-48 Cramer
OH: 54-44 Brown
TN: 52-46 Blackburn
TX: 52-47 Cruz

WV: 51-44 Manchin
WI: 54-45 Baldwin


MS-S: 40-34-24 Epsy - Hyde-Smith - McDaniel --> 57-43 Hyde-Smith

Right now i agree 100%, and would predict very similar numbers myself. It will be interesting to see genuine results month ahead, and compare.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #35 on: October 05, 2018, 12:05:45 PM »

Predicting margins for competitive races one month out.

AZ: 49-47 Sinema
FL: 51-48 Nelson

IN: 49-47 Donnelly
MN-S: 52-45 Smith
MO: 49-48 Hawley
MT: 49-46 Tester
NV: 48-45 Rosen

NJ: 53-46 Menendez
ND: 52-48 Cramer
OH: 54-44 Brown
TN: 52-46 Blackburn
TX: 52-47 Cruz

WV: 51-44 Manchin
WI: 54-45 Baldwin


MS-S: 40-34-24 Epsy - Hyde-Smith - McDaniel --> 57-43 Hyde-Smith

Right now i agree 100%, and would predict very similar numbers myself. It will be interesting to see genuine results month ahead, and compare.

there's still time enough for Dems to recapture the Senate and it goes through TN and TX
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
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« Reply #36 on: October 05, 2018, 04:21:54 PM »

Post-Kavanaugh update:



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smoltchanov
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« Reply #37 on: October 06, 2018, 12:19:36 PM »

NC or R+1. Most likely variant for now is (IMHO, as always) a draw with Democrats winning Arizona and Nevada, and Republicans - North Dakota and Missouri. But it can easily go R+1. Or, if Democrats will be really lucky, they can go +1 by either winning Tennessee or - not losing Missouri.
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yakutia
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« Reply #38 on: October 13, 2018, 08:51:28 PM »

Hi,
The 2018 US Senate predictions are now available here
Enjoy,
Dave

No way in hell Dems keep ND and MO. AZ leans Rep as Sinema has come out as berating her own state.
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pops
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« Reply #39 on: October 15, 2018, 01:13:17 AM »
« Edited: October 15, 2018, 01:19:50 AM by katman46 »

Here's my 2nd to last set of predictions (with percentages). Candidates that round to 3% or more are included.

Arizona
Sinema (D)^ - 49
McSally (R) - 47
Green (G) - 3

California
Feinstein (D) - 57
De Leon (D) - 43

Connecticut
Murphy (D) - 62
Corey (R) - 36

Delaware
Carper (D) - 60
Arlett (R) - 38

Florida
Nelson (D) - 51
Scott (R) - 49

Hawaii
Hirono (D) - 69
Curtis (R) - 29

Indiana
Donnelly (D) - 49
Braun (R) - 48
Brenton (L) - 4

Maine
King (I) - 53
Brakey (R) - 39
Ringelstein (D) - 8

Maryland
Cardin (D) - 72
Campbell (R) - 21
Simon (I) - 7

Massachusetts
Warren (D) - 57
Diehl (R) - 38
Ayyadurai (I) - 5

Michigan
Stabenow (D) - 56
James (R) - 41

Minnesota
Klobuchar (D) - 58
Newberger (R) - 38

Minnesota-S
Smith (D) - 52
Housely (R) - 46

Mississippi
Wicker (R) - 59
Baria (D) - 39

Mississippi-S
Espy (D) - 40
Hyde-Smith (R) - 37
McDaniel (R) - 20
Bartee (D) - 3

Missouri
McCaskill (D) - 49
Hawley (R) - 46
O'Dear (I) - 3

Montana
Tester (D) - 49
Rosendale (R) - 48
Breckenridge (L) - 3

Nebraska
Fischer (R) - 64
Raybould (D) - 34

Nevada
Heller (R) - 45
Rosen (D) - 43
Hagan (L) - 4
None of these Candidates - 4

New Jersey
Menendez (D) - 55
Hugin (R) - 42

New Mexico
Heinrich (D) - 49
Rich (R) - 31
Johnson (L) - 20

New York
Gillibrand (D) - 63
Farley (R) - 37

North Dakota
Cramer (R)^ - 53
Heitkamp (D) - 47

Ohio
Brown (D) - 54
Renacci (R) - 46

Pennsylvania
Wolf (D) - 60
Wagner (R) - 39

Rhode Island
Whitehouse (D) - 59
Flanders (R) - 40

Tennessee
Blackburn (R) - 51
Bredesen (D) - 48

Texas
Cruz (R) - 50
O'Rourke (D) - 48

Utah
Romney (R) - 62
Wilson (D) - 30
Bowden (L) - 3

Vermont
Sanders (I) - 78
Zupan (R) - 19

Virginia
Kaine (D) - 59
Stewart (R) - 38
Waters (L) - 4

Washington
Cantwell (D) - 60
Hutchinson (R) - 40

West Virginia
Manchin (D) - 48
Morrissey (R) - 46
Hollen (L) - 5

Wisconsin
Baldwin (D) - 56
Vukmir (R) - 44

Wyoming
Barrasso (R) - 57
Trauner (D) - 42

North Dakota and Arizona flip, Senate stays 51-49

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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #40 on: October 16, 2018, 11:00:16 AM »

Predicting margins for competitive races one month out.

AZ: 49-47 Sinema
FL: 51-48 Nelson

IN: 49-47 Donnelly
MN-S: 52-45 Smith
MO: 49-48 Hawley
MT: 49-46 Tester
NV: 48-45 Rosen

NJ: 53-46 Menendez
ND: 52-48 Cramer
OH: 54-44 Brown
TN: 52-46 Blackburn
TX: 52-47 Cruz

WV: 51-44 Manchin
WI: 54-45 Baldwin


MS-S: 40-34-24 Epsy - Hyde-Smith - McDaniel --> 57-43 Hyde-Smith

My second iteration of margin predictions. Last one will be done a few days before election day.

AZ: 48-47 Sinema
FL: 51-48 Nelson
IN: 48-47 Donnelly
MN-S: 53-44 Smith
MO: 49-47 Hawley
MT: 50-46 Tester
NV: 47-46 Rosen
NJ: 54-45 Menendez
ND: 54-46 Cramer
TN: 54-44 Blackburn
TX: 53-45 Cruz
WV: 52-43 Manchin
WI: 54-45 Baldwin
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Colbert
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« Reply #41 on: October 21, 2018, 08:05:37 AM »

3 pick-ups quite lean for R : ND, MO, FL

3 eventual pick-ups : MT, WV, IN
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #42 on: October 21, 2018, 06:08:59 PM »

It’s been a while, and this will most likely be my last update before the election unless something changes dramatically.



(IA = MN-Special, AL = MS-Special)

47 Republicans, 47 Democrats, 6 Toss-ups

AZ: Likely D -> Lean D (Likely D was probably a bridge too far, but I’d say Sinema's still a slight favorite here. I could definitely see this and/or MT going Republican [narrowly] if the GOP has a better than expected night, though.)

OH/WV: Lean D -> Likely D (I don’t think an explanation is needed, honestly. Democrats should win both states unless 2018 turns out to be a 2014-style R year. Morrisey and Renacci have been major disappointments, honestly.)

TX: Lean R -> Likely R (Cruz might underperform, but he should be fine.)

However, I still think Republicans are well-positioned to win all the Toss-up races (ND/MS-Special/TN/MO/IN/FL in that order, with FL the one I’m least sure about).

So yeah, 53R/47D is my current (final?) prediction.
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Xing
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« Reply #43 on: October 21, 2018, 10:12:24 PM »

For now (I'll probably make one update):

AZ: 49-48 Sinema
FL: 49-47 Nelson
IN: 48-47 Donnelly
MO: 48-47 Hawley
MT: 49-46 Tester
NV: 51-45 Rosen
ND: 54-46 Cramer
WV: 51-44 Manchin

(I don't see any other races as potential flips)
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #44 on: October 22, 2018, 01:40:58 AM »

TN can
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LAKISYLVANIA
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« Reply #45 on: October 26, 2018, 11:28:21 AM »
« Edited: October 29, 2018, 11:12:17 AM by Lakigigar »

Solid D: WA, HI, CA, MN, NM, NY, VA, RI, CT, VI, ME, MA, DE
Likely D: OH, PA, WI, MI, MN-2
Lean D: NJ, MT, WV
Toss-up: AZ, MO, NV, IN, FL, ND
Lean R: TN, TX
Likely R: MS-2
Solid R: UT, WY, NE, MS

I think currently that Dems will win AZ, NV while Republicans win MO, IN, FL and ND.
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Anzeigenhauptmeister
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« Reply #46 on: November 02, 2018, 01:46:28 PM »

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Pericles
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« Reply #47 on: November 05, 2018, 01:39:02 AM »




It was a tough call with Missouri but I think that's the most likely 51st Republican seat and a 50-50 result seems implausible to me. Could go either way but gut feeling is Claire McCaskill's luck will run out on Election Day. Final result is 51-49 for no net change.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #48 on: November 05, 2018, 01:27:14 PM »
« Edited: November 05, 2018, 01:45:43 PM by ElectionsGuy »

Final Prediction Time!

AZ: 49-47 Sinema
FL: 51-48 Nelson
MO: 49-47 Hawley
IN: 47-47 Braun

MT: 50-46 Tester
NV: 50-45 Rosen

ND: 54-46 Cramer
TN: 53-45 Blackburn
TX: 52-46 Cruz

WV: 53-44 Manchin (this I think has biggest upset potential)

Other less competitive races...

MI: 54-44 Stabenow
MN-S: 52-45 Smith
NJ: 53-43 Menendez
NM: 53-34-12 Henrich (Johnson in last)
OH: 54-46 Brown
PA: 55-44 Casey
VA: 57-41 Kaine
WI: 55-45 Baldwin


All others are beyond safe.

In Mississippi special, I expect Espy to finish narrowly in front of Hyde-Smith 40-38-20, while Hyde-Smith wins by 10-15 (57-43 is my prediction) in the runoff. I expect it to be very similar to Louisiana '14.

In my bold prediction this cycle, establishment Democrats get the biggest scare in California where Feinstein wins only 52-48 against de Leon.
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Roblox
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« Reply #49 on: November 05, 2018, 05:09:57 PM »

Well, here's my final prediction https://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/

Basically, I think democrats pick up NV and AZ, but republicans flip ND. I'm predicting that Donnelly and McCaskill will hold on by the skin of their teeth, but I could easily see both going the other way. I'm especially unsure about Missouri, but it seems like Air Claire may have some last minute momentum there.

Predicted Margins for competitive races-

FL: 52-48 Nelson
MO: 49-48 McCaskill
IN: 48-46 Donnelly
NJ (lol): 53-43 Menendez
MT: 50-46 Tester
TN: 52-46 Blackburn
TX: 51-46 Cruz
WV: 51-45 Manchin
AZ: 49-47 Sinema
NV: 49-45 Rosen
ND: 54-46 Cramer
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