Assuming Doug Jones beats Roy Moore, what are the odds he is reelected in 2020?

[Sorenroy]

While it's certainly not guaranteed, the allegations currently pummeling Roy Moore have given Doug Jones at least a decent shot at winning Alabama's special Senate election. Assuming Doug Jones does win, what are the odds that he is able to beat back another Republican in the regular 2020 race? You often here about the chance of incumbents winning reelection being in the 90 percents, but there is an argument to be made that Trump's 5th best state will not follow that trend. What do you think will happen? What odds do you give it of happening?

[IceSpear]

1%. That one percent is based on the non-zero chance that the GOP nominates a KKK Grand Wizard/church bomber or another child molester, which, knowing the Republican Party, I wouldn't put it past them.

In any case, Jones is better off retiring and just stumping around the country for the Presidential nominee and other Senate races. No point throwing millions of dollars on a Senate race in a state where Trump will clear 60%.

[Free Bird]

5%, that extra 5 assumes he becomes a sort of Joe Manchin or Ileana Ros-Lehtinen figure. Gets reelected on their own, but the second they retire the seat flips.

[fluffypanther19]

1%. That one percent is based on the non-zero chance that the GOP nominates a KKK Grand Wizard/church bomber or another child molester, which, knowing the Republican Party, I wouldn't put it past them.

In any case, Jones is better off retiring and just stumping around the country for the Presidential nominee and other Senate races. No point throwing millions of dollars on a Senate race in a state where Trump will clear 60%.

/thread

[Kamala]

Yeah. Just have him run a campaign but don't invest heavily in the state, unless obviously the Republicans nominate a trash tier candidate.

Otherwise, start making door signs (?) for his AG office.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Of course he wouldn't be.

[Lachi]

It's a non-zero chance, but it's extremely low.

[Anna Komnene]

I guess it's possible he could build up good will in the state, but IMO there's just too many republican voters to overcome in a race with presidential turnout. Also, I'm not sure how many people know this, but Alabama has a straight party line option on their ballot and they put it on the top in big bold letters and giant symbols above everything else. That would be a HUGE problem for Jones in 2020.

[cwt]

He was polling within 10 points of Moore even before the allegations came out. A Fox News poll had them tied.

Plus the incumbent advantage he'd have, and 2020 being a Democratic wave year... his odds are better than 1%.

[IceSpear]

He was polling within 10 points of Moore even before the allegations came out. A Fox News poll had them tied.

Plus the incumbent advantage he'd have, and 2020 being a Democratic wave year... his odds are better than 1%.

A 10 point lead isn't close. By Alabama standards it is, but not in general. And even before the allegations Moore was the least electable candidate they had.

[smoltchanov]

1%. That one percent is based on the non-zero chance that the GOP nominates a KKK Grand Wizard/church bomber or another child molester, which, knowing the Republican Party, I wouldn't put it past them.

In any case, Jones is better off retiring and just stumping around the country for the Presidential nominee and other Senate races. No point throwing millions of dollars on a Senate race in a state where Trump will clear 60%.

Fully agree.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

Scott Brown 2.0. The race is competitive throughout and Jones ultimately loses by mid-upper single digits, but a victory was never truly possible.

[Frodo]

He won't be. 

Which is why those three years he will serve here (if he wins) will be so crucial.  We need to make good use of him while we have him. 

[Tartarus Sauce]

He was polling within 10 points of Moore even before the allegations came out. A Fox News poll had them tied.

Plus the incumbent advantage he'd have, and 2020 being a Democratic wave year... his odds are better than 1%.

Even if the Democratic nominee is Joe Biden who beats Trump 60-40 nationwide, Democrats still wouldn't have a chance in Alabama against a non-Grand Wizard or church bomber or child molester. Partisanship in the Deep South at the federal level is way too high. Best get that through your heads now, so if Jones does win, we can all just accept that it's good as gone in 2020, just like Scott Brown's 3-year Massachusetts rental. Still nice to have though, for sure.

Though maybe his chances would be somewhat better than 1%. There's probably a greater than 1% chance that the Republican base does nominate a KKK Grand Wizard/church bomber/child molester, after all.

The thought of Thomas Blanton running from his jail cell and winning the GOP primary in an upset and then facing off against the man that put him behind bars...

That would just be fate right there.

[Pericles]

10%. Being generous here though.

[Cactus Jack]

50%. This "Jones would be DOA" argument is nonsense IMO. The Republican Party in states like AL, LA and ND is hilariously inept and the Democrats have done extremely well in Senate races in many red states in 2012. Republicans aren't even capable of beating Claire McCaskill, so why wouldn't they snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in AL again? 

I can't believe I'm saying this, but Treasurer has it right. Safe state parties face competitive elections so rarely, they generally have absolutely no idea how to manage them when they actually come up. It's why Massachusetts Democrats squandered two races by grace of Coakley, and why the NDGOP looks set to blow the 2018 Senate race.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

ND =/= AL though. Alabama is much more evangelical, which is why I don't think Jones could beat any pro-life Republican who isn't heavily corrupt/insane/criminal. Like, Jones is actually more liberal than Heitkamp, right? Especially for his state.

[Orser67]

I'd say ~10%. You can't discount the possibility that Republicans nominate another candidate almost as bad as Moore, or that Jones turns out to have some Heitkampian magic.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

50%. This "Jones would be DOA" argument is nonsense IMO. The Republican Party in states like AL, LA and ND is hilariously inept and the Democrats have done extremely well in Senate races in many red states in 2012. Republicans aren't even capable of beating Claire McCaskill, so why wouldn't they snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in AL again? 

I can't believe I'm saying this, but Treasurer has it right. Safe state parties face competitive elections so rarely, they generally have absolutely no idea how to manage them when they actually come up. It's why Massachusetts Democrats squandered two races by grace of Coakley, and why the NDGOP looks set to blow the 2018 Senate race.

Heitkamp's senate seat has been Democratic for 57 years, so that might not be the best example.

[LabourJersey]

Scott Brown 2.0. The race is competitive throughout and Jones ultimately loses by mid-upper single digits, but a victory was never truly possible.

Massachusetts Democrats are FAR, FAR more open to voting for a moderate Republican than Alabama Republicans are to voting for a moderate Democrat.

If Jones somehow wins, he'll almost certainly lose in 2020. It'll be comparable to Djou winning in Hawaii in a special election and quickly losing in the general

[Shadows]

50%. This "Jones would be DOA" argument is nonsense IMO. The Republican Party in states like AL, LA and ND is hilariously inept and the Democrats have done extremely well in Senate races in many red states in 2012. Republicans aren't even capable of beating Claire McCaskill, so why wouldn't they snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in AL again? 

I can't believe I'm saying this, but Treasurer has it right. Safe state parties face competitive elections so rarely, they generally have absolutely no idea how to manage them when they actually come up. It's why Massachusetts Democrats squandered two races by grace of Coakley, and why the NDGOP looks set to blow the 2018 Senate race.

Heitkamp's senate seat has been Democratic for 57 years, so that might not be the best example.

Wasn't Manchin's seat also the one Byrd held for like 50 years? WV was a cornerstone of the New Deal coalition electing Democrats for like 70-80 years at a stretch. There are many such economically left-of-center states which Dems lost due to abortion, gay marriage, affirmative action, etc reasons.

70% of the folks in Oklahoma are pro-life & oppose gay marriage, so the state is lost even before economic issues can take front & center.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Very small.

And I still don't think he's got actual chance now. It'll be closer with Moore, but this is Alabama we are talking about. Especially in an off-year election.

It's similar to Musgrove's Senate bid in MS in 2008. It was feasible because he was a credible candidate and because of Obama producing a high African American turnout, but he still lost. Alabama's more white and more generically Republican than MS.

[7,052,770]

Low, but it depends on how the presidential race is going and who the candidates are.

[McGovernForPrez]

Very small.

And I still don't think he's got actual chance now. It'll be closer with Moore, but this is Alabama we are talking about. Especially in an off-year election.

It's similar to Musgrove's Senate bid in MS in 2008. It was feasible because he was a credible candidate and because of Obama producing a high African American turnout, but he still lost. Alabama's more white and more generically Republican than MS.

An off year election actually improves his chances not hurts them. The meme that Democrats always do badly in midterms is extremely inaccurate.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

0%, unless GOP nominates a KKK leader or Child Abuser again.