Will 2018 be a worse defeat than 2006 for the GOP in the house

[OSR stands with Israel]

Its hard to say at the moment but currently I see them losing 26-30 seats in the House.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Yes

[Frodo]

Unlikely given the gerrymandering and voter suppression tactics employed by the GOP in states it controls especially since 2010, but anything is possible.  

[Pericles]

In the popular vote yes but probably not seats wise.

[AtorBoltox]

Democrats will win 50 seats

[Virginiá]

Its hard to say at the moment but currently I see them losing 26-30 seats in the House.

That's my thought as well. However more than 2006 isn't that far out of the question. Democrats won 31 seats, which is a lot for sure, but not something gargantuan like 54 or 63.

I think the real story might end up being in the states. Republicans are pretty over-extended on that front, so it'll be interesting to see how that goes.

[progressive85]

It's almost better for the Democrats to barely lose the House in 2018 since a lot of the seats that they would win if it was a big majority would revert back to form in 2020 or 2022.  They would just be one-term congresscritters.

The most important seats to win are not congressional seats, but state house seats.  Democrats need to become obsessed with redistricting after 2018.

The map simply sucks, but if you don't want that map for another decade, change it - redraw those districts, and to do that, you need governor's seats, state house majorities, and state supreme court majorities to do that.

[Brittain33]

Can someone help me remember why the Republicans had room to fall further in 2008 than in 2006? I remember 2006 as the mother of all shellackings for Republicans, but obviously it wasn't. Maybe it was just because it had been so long since a good D year.

[Mr.Phips]

Can someone help me remember why the Republicans had room to fall further in 2008 than in 2006? I remember 2006 as the mother of all shellackings for Republicans, but obviously it wasn't. Maybe it was just because it had been so long since a good D year.

Democrats actually somewhat underperformed in the House in 2006 as many vulnerable Republicans like Heather Wilson, Chris Shays, Jim Gerlach, Deborah Pryce, and others managed to narrowly survive when they were thought to be sure losers.  Most (but not all) of these seats ended up going Dem in 2008 with Presidential year turnout.

[OSR stands with Israel]

In my opinion 1994 was worse for the Democrats in the house than 2010. Yes they lost more seats in 2010, but 2010  basically just wiped out the gains from 2006 and 2008 (which only went dem because of how unpopular the GOP was then) . In 1994 on the other hand the Democrats were not over stretched(they had 258 seats than which was less than the amount they had from 1990-1992 and for many congressional sessions before that) so most of the GOP gains were actually gains and not just a reversal  of a wave election.


So to really asses how bad 2018 is , just sholdnt be based on how many seats they lose but how long term the consequences of losing that election is.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

yes

[Mr.Phips]

In my opinion 1994 was worse for the Democrats in the house than 2010. Yes they lost more seats in 2010, but 2010  basically just wiped out the gains from 2006 and 2008 (which only went dem because of how unpopular the GOP was then) . In 1994 on the other hand the Democrats were not over stretched(they had 258 seats than which was less than the amount they had from 1990-1992 and for many congressional sessions before that) so most of the GOP gains were actually gains and not just a reversal  of a wave election.


So to really asses how bad 2018 is , just sholdnt be based on how many seats they lose but how long term the consequences of losing that election is.

Dems probably were overstretched in 1994 (they had been since 1982).  What kept Dem numbers at around 260 for most of the 1980s and early 1990s were the fact that the Presidents were Republican and kept any unpopular policies of Dems out of the light.  As soon as a Dem was President, that protection was gone and Dems were bound to lose a ton of seats.  If Michael Dukakis had been elected in 1988, Dems would have lost the House or come very close to doing so in 1990.

[gottsu]

I share the same views as OP. It will all range from flipping at least 20 to max. 40 seats by D's, if D's or R's wouldn't let to run peoples like Moore in AL Senate.

[Indy Texas]

In my opinion 1994 was worse for the Democrats in the house than 2010. Yes they lost more seats in 2010, but 2010  basically just wiped out the gains from 2006 and 2008 (which only went dem because of how unpopular the GOP was then) . In 1994 on the other hand the Democrats were not over stretched(they had 258 seats than which was less than the amount they had from 1990-1992 and for many congressional sessions before that) so most of the GOP gains were actually gains and not just a reversal  of a wave election.


So to really asses how bad 2018 is , just sholdnt be based on how many seats they lose but how long term the consequences of losing that election is.

2010 was different because there was a structural realignment component to it.

That was the year that the Democrats' last footholds in the non-urban South were wiped away. Those seats aren't going to go back to the Democrats when the political climate changes.

1994 didn't have as much of that. You had more seats that went to the GOP and then were won by the Democrats again at a later date.

[Badger]

In the popular vote yes but probably not seats wise.

[Orser67]

1994 didn't have as much of that. You had more seats that went to the GOP and then were won by the Democrats again at a later date.

I disagree with this, at least to a certain extent. If you look at the 103rd Congress ('93-'95), Democrats had a majority of the House seats in the vast majority of Southern state, and a narrow majority of Southern Senators were Democrats. In the 111th Congress ('09-'11), Democrats had a majority of the House seats in just a handful of Southern states, and the vast majority of Southern Senators were Republicans. I would argue that '94 was the bigger realigning election, while 2010 knocked off Democrats in holdout states like Mississippi and Arkansas. Then 2014 was the final death knell for the party in much of the South

Anyway, in comparing 2018 to the loss of Democratic seats in the South from 1994 to 2014, I wonder if 2018 will see the loss of suburban Republican seats, especially outside of the South.