Will Crimea be administered by Russia in 2024?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Currently Russia administers the Crimean Peninsula, after having invaded in 2014. Will that state of affairs remain as of 2024?

[Karpatsky]

I hate to say it, but Crimea will probably be administered by Russia in 2124, too.

[mileslunn]

Most likely.  Short of war, which no one wants considering Russia is a nuclear power, I don't see Russia giving up Crimea voluntarily.  So yes it likely still will be administered by Russia in 2024.  They are even constructing a bridge to connect with Russia so one can by pass Ukraine to get there.

[Santander]

Yes, and rightfully so. Hopefully Donbass is annexed soon, too.

[Blue3]

I don't think there's any doubt about this.

[NewYorkExpress]

Yes, and rightfully so. Hopefully Donbass is annexed soon, too.

I'm now convinced you're a Russian plant...though I can't imagine what Putin would want with this forum.

[Vega]

The better question is when will the international community officially recognize it as part of Russia.

[Frodo]

Crimea is Russia's for as long as it wants it. 

[TDAS04]

Yes. 

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The better question is when will the international community officially recognize it as part of Russia.

Considering that the US and other countries never recognized the annexation of the Baltic States by the Soviet Union, not anytime soon.

[wxtransit]

Most likely.  Short of war, which no one wants considering Russia is a nuclear power, I don't see Russia giving up Crimea voluntarily.  So yes it likely still will be administered by Russia in 2024.  They are even constructing a bridge to connect with Russia so one can by pass Ukraine to get there.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I hate to say it, but Crimea will probably be administered by Russia in 2124, too.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Hopefully.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Hopefully, since it's people are Russian. The world learned the wrong lessons from the Munich failure.

[Lord Halifax]

Hopefully, since it's people are Russian. The world learned the wrong lessons from the Munich failure.

The Tatars are the indigenous population, and they do not approve of coming under Russian rule.

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

I don't think there's any doubt about this.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Maybe no. Putin could invade the Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Belarus to reform the Soviet Union. Technically in 2024,  Crimea would not be Russian, but Soviet.

[Beet]

There could be a deal to get Russia to withdraw from Crimea and Ukraine in exchange for an investigation into the legality of the deposition of Viktor Yanukovich. Either way, the seizure of land by brute force away from the sovereignty as recognized by the UN is unacceptable.

[kelestian]

Hopefully, since it's people are Russian. The world learned the wrong lessons from the Munich failure.

The Tatars are the indigenous population, and they do not approve of coming under Russian rule.

They are about 12% of Crimean population.

There could be a deal to get Russia to withdraw from Crimea and Ukraine in exchange for an investigation into the legality of the deposition of Viktor Yanukovich. Either way, the seizure of land by brute force away from the sovereignty as recognized by the UN is unacceptable.

No way. Without a war, Russia wouldn't bring Crimea back. However, there is possibility of a deal about future of Donbass, but it wouldn't include Yanukovich - he is a dead man now, he isn't useful for Moscow and Ukrainians hate him.

[SoLongAtlas]

Yes, no great power or superpower (US) will risk WW3 over Crimea. 2050 and out, the answer becomes a maybe. Russia will really be a shell of itself by 2050 and esp. 2100 with a dwindling population. Would the need to retrench present itself due to fiscal/internal political restraints. Possible but understand that Crimea has a lot to do with Russia's ability to project power, esp re its lack of ports.

[Frodo]

Yes, no great power or superpower (US) will risk WW3 over Crimea. 2050 and out, the answer becomes a maybe. Russia will really be a shell of itself by 2050 and esp. 2100 with a dwindling population. Would the need to retrench present itself due to fiscal/internal political restraints. Possible but understand that Crimea has a lot to do with Russia's ability to project power, esp re its lack of ports.

Which would open the door for China (by which point, it will likely surpass the United States in having the largest economy in the world) to engage in similar behavior, like reclaiming Mongolia and other territories once occupied by the Qing Dynasty empire at its height:



Only a strong Russia under Putin is preventing them from doing so.  Once that changes....

[Beet]

^^ Uh, Russia’s population is growing. It’s China’s that will be dwindling by 2050. The idea that we can’t stand up to both Russia and China is dangerous nonsense — As long as we maintain our alliances and don’t do anything stupid.

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

Yes, no great power or superpower (US) will risk WW3 over Crimea. 2050 and out, the answer becomes a maybe. Russia will really be a shell of itself by 2050 and esp. 2100 with a dwindling population. Would the need to retrench present itself due to fiscal/internal political restraints. Possible but understand that Crimea has a lot to do with Russia's ability to project power, esp re its lack of ports.

Which would open the door for China (by which point, it will likely surpass the United States in having the largest economy in the world) to engage in similar behavior, like reclaiming Mongolia and other territories once occupied by the Qing Dynasty empire at its height:



Only a strong Russia under Putin is preventing them from doing so.  Once that changes....

I don't think people fully understand how much more of a threat China is. Russia basically just wants to maintain the small sphere of influence it still has (ie defending Assad) and to dominate areas that have been Russian for centuries (as in Crimea). China on the other hand is low-key economically colonizing Africa and has become the top trade partner of almost every country in Asia, rapidly giving themselves influence to rival America. New cold war? Probably not, only because the US and China are top trade partners, but maybe still a bit by proxy.