Assuming Doug Jones beats Roy Moore, what are the odds he is reelected in 2020?

[Badger]

I have a feeling he'll be an excellent Senator, which is why his odds of reelection are as high as Slim.

[Brittain33]

I can't think of any federal precedent that would give hope for Jones to win reelection in a Presidential year. I guess you could look at how Travis Childers won reelection in MS-1 in November 2008 after winning a special election earlier that year, but Jones if elected would have more votes under his belt and would clearly get targeted as an obstacle to Republican control of the Senate including approval of judges.

[adrac]

Gonna say 15~20%

[Cactus Jack]

If the Moore situation goes from Akin Bad to Duke Catastrophic, and Jones really does somehow win by greater than ten points, I could actually see him entrenching himself.

[Bidenworth2020]

what does this look like? strange run?

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

what does this look like? strange run?

Strange isn't running and I doubt anyone else is foolish enough to run as a write-in either.

[Cynthia]

Around 5%

[Maxwell]

Higher than I'd expect, lower than I'd hope. People like incumbents, but Scott Brown will tell you a 70% approval rating may not be enough.

I give him a 5% chance of being re-elected.

[NHI]

Scott Brown 2.0. The race is competitive throughout and Jones ultimately loses by mid-upper single digits, but a victory was never truly possible.

[Nichlemn]

Jones has maybe a 10% chance of winning re-election, but probably loses by around 10 points..