PPP: 15 more polls of competitive House districts

[heatcharger]

Link.

WI-01:
Ryan 46%
Bryce 39%

NE-02:
Ashford 49%
Bacon 40%

MN-03:
Phillips 46%
Paulsen 42%

NY-22:
Brindisi 47%
Tenney 41%

IL-06:
Democratic candidate 51%
Roskam 41%

CA-48:
Democratic candidate 51%
Rohrabacher 41%

MI-06:
Upton 42%
Democratic candidate 41%

NJ-07:
Democratic candidate 42%
Lance 41%

NY-19:
Democratic candidate 46%
Faso 40%

NJ-11:
Democratic candidate 46%
Frelinghuysen 44%

TX-07:
Democratic candidate 49%
Culberson 39%

TX-32:
Democratic candidate 48%
Sessions 43%

FL-26:
Democratic candidate 53%
Curbelo 39%

CA-25:
Democratic candidate 50%
Knight 38%

NJ-02 (OPEN):
Democratic candidate 44%
Republican candidate 39%

Starting to look like a landslide folks. Nice!

[Hindsight was 2020]

You got one thing wrong Culberson is down 39/49 not up

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Goodbye, Dana Rohrabacher. You won't be missed.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The rot and carnage in these suburban Republican districts that we were told would never vote for a Democrat over a non-Trump Republican...

This is why I strongly believe Cheri Bustos should be Pelosi's successor as the Dem leader.

[Oryxslayer]

I have never liked polls of house districts - to hard to get a representative sample/good sample size. But hey, this will help push democratic hopes even higher.

[GlobeSoc]

I expected this from the suburban numbers, what I didn't expect are the NY-19 and 22 numbers. They suggest that ME-02 is at risk for republicans, and that at least in the Northeast, rural areas are going to swing somewhat to Dems.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

Roskam story on tax reform.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2017/11/13/roskam_at_the_center_of_political_fight_over_taxes_135517.html

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If that's an accurate figure, expect Roskam's 10-point deficit to Generic D to increase.

[Pyro]

NY-19:
Democratic candidate 46%
Faso 40%

!! ZEPHYR'S REVENGE !!

[Wiz in Wis]

When you look at this list, think of the races they didn't poll

NY 01, KS 03, VA 10, MN 02, WA 08, CA 49, CA 39, CO 06, FL 25, PA 06, PA 07, PA 08, PA 15.

I mean, that's the whole game there folks... hard to see D's not pick up 75% of these races at this rate.

[Holmes]

When you look at this list, think of the races they didn't poll

NY 01, KS 03, VA 10, MN 02, WA 08, CA 49, CA 39, CO 06, FL 25, PA 06, PA 07, PA 08, PA 15.

I mean, that's the whole game there folks... hard to see D's not pick up 75% of these races at this rate.

Either they didn't poll them or purposely withheld the results. But they're.likely up in many of those districts if the polls they did release are anything to go by.

[Wiz in Wis]

When you look at this list, think of the races they didn't poll

NY 01, KS 03, VA 10, MN 02, WA 08, CA 49, CA 39, CO 06, FL 25, PA 06, PA 07, PA 08, PA 15.

I mean, that's the whole game there folks... hard to see D's not pick up 75% of these races at this rate.

Either they didn't poll them or purposely withheld the results. But they're.likely up in many of those districts if the polls they did release are anything to go by.

It's a bit hard to imagine they polled most of these races, only inasmuch as that would be more than 30 races to poll all at once. Even PPP might be strained with that many polls in the field, and the DCCC would be paying quite a lot for that many.

[Torie]

Giving too much emphasis to generic numbers is a mistake. Real candidates are often more vulnerable than an incorporeal generic concept.

[TheSaint250]

Goodbye, Dana Rohrabacher. You won't be missed.

[Mr.Phips]

I expected this from the suburban numbers, what I didn't expect are the NY-19 and 22 numbers. They suggest that ME-02 is at risk for republicans, and that at least in the Northeast, rural areas are going to swing somewhat to Dems.

Upstate New York swings pretty wildly with the political environment.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I continue to be very jealous of the excellent campaign that Generic D is running across the country. In any case, I'm looking forward to having Ashford back in Congress!

[mvd10]

The NJ Republicans are almost tied with generic D and their districts were basically tied in the gubernatorial election so I think they should be fine in the end. Roskam surprises me, I thought he was too entrenched (he got 60% of the vote while Trump goy 43% in 2016 and Romney got 53% in 2012). Being a key player in tax reform probably has hurt him in a high tax suburb. I'm also surprised they didn't poll TX-23. Hurd is very vulnerable and he also has a lot of potential which should make the Democrats even more eager to take him out in 2018.

Rohrabacher trailing doesn't really surprise me tbh. He's too tied to Trump and it's about time that he will be replaced by a better Republican in 2020 .

[UncleSam]

Any race where a republican incumbent is polling within 5 of generic D with > 10% undecided I'd consider a tossup right now, frankly. Still good numbers for Democrats but that generic ballot question is a bit weak for Dems. Hard to see them winning the house with a lead of only 5 - though a final result of D +7-8 off of a D+5 baseline would hardly be inconsistent with 2017 results.

[heatcharger]

Any race where a republican incumbent is polling within 5 of generic D with > 10% undecided I'd consider a tossup right now, frankly. Still good numbers for Republicans but that generic ballot question is a bit weak for Dems. Hard to see them winning the house with a lead of only 5 - though a final result of D +7-8 off of a D+5 baseline would hardly be inconsistent with 2017 results.

Democrats are leading the generic ballot by 10 points. Try again.

[UncleSam]

Any race where a republican incumbent is polling within 5 of generic D with > 10% undecided I'd consider a tossup right now, frankly. Still good numbers for Republicans but that generic ballot question is a bit weak for Dems. Hard to see them winning the house with a lead of only 5 - though a final result of D +7-8 off of a D+5 baseline would hardly be inconsistent with 2017 results.

Democrats are leading the generic ballot by 10 points. Try again.

Misread the generic ballot question in Nj-2 as a national generic ballot question. No need to be a dick about it lol

Note: also meant Democrats when I typed Republicans there rip, should've been pretty clear from context though

[JA]

It'd be hard to deny that a wave is building; New Jersey and Virginia were only a taste of what's to come next year. But, even more important (at least in the long-term) is whether Democratic gains will be limited almost entirely to urban and suburban Congressional Districts or if it'll extend to rural ones as well.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

New York 22 voted Donald Trump 55-39.

It's now voting for a Democrat (not a generic one) by 6 points vs an incumbent Republican.

The wave is real. Stop denying it. People hate Trump, and they hate the GOP Congress even more.

[Virginiá]

It'd be hard to deny that a wave is building; New Jersey and Virginia were only a taste of what's to come next year. But, even more important (at least in the long-term) is whether Democratic gains will be limited almost entirely to urban and suburban Congressional Districts or if it'll extend to rural ones as well.

Doesn't really seem like it if you go by the Virginia results. Obviously that is just one region though, and rural areas in other states could drift back a little to Democrats, but at least right now it seems like the party has a lot of work to do on that front.

NY-19:
Democratic candidate 46%
Faso 40%

!! ZEPHYR'S REVENGE !!

2018 really really the best time for her to run. I suppose she could again, since her first campaign was actually for governor, so it's not like she's running for a 3rd time for the same office. Either way, I'd love for her to be in the House.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

It'd be hard to deny that a wave is building; New Jersey and Virginia were only a taste of what's to come next year. But, even more important (at least in the long-term) is whether Democratic gains will be limited almost entirely to urban and suburban Congressional Districts or if it'll extend to rural ones as well.

We've seen indication that it won't extend to many rural districts. The Special Elections in KS-4, MT-AL, and SC-5 were closer than they should have been, but ultimately Democrats were unable to win. Guadagno won most rural counties in the NJ Governor race. In the UT-3 Special Election, Curtis (R) won nearly 60% of the vote. And almost all of the VA HoD pickups were in Urban or Suburban seats. There will be exceptions - TX-23 could arguably be classified as rural, for instance - but they will be few in number.

[JA]

It'd be hard to deny that a wave is building; New Jersey and Virginia were only a taste of what's to come next year. But, even more important (at least in the long-term) is whether Democratic gains will be limited almost entirely to urban and suburban Congressional Districts or if it'll extend to rural ones as well.

Doesn't really seem like it if you go by the Virginia results. Obviously that is just one region though, and rural areas in other states could drift back a little to Democrats, but at least right now it seems like the party has a lot of work to do on that front.

Another significant issue is whether suburban areas becoming increasingly Democratic are primarily due to Whites with a college degree or more minorities living in the suburbs. Didn't Whites with a college degree constitute a higher share of the vote in Virginia's state elections than in 2016? Does anyone know if they voted more Democratic than in 2016?

[BudgieForce]

Frelinghuysen is an institution at this point. I'd be shocked if he goes down.