PPP: 15 more polls of competitive House districts
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  PPP: 15 more polls of competitive House districts
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #25 on: November 14, 2017, 01:12:36 PM »

Frelinghuysen is an institution at this point. I'd be shocked if he goes down.

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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #26 on: November 14, 2017, 01:15:15 PM »

 Doesn't really seem like it if you go by the Virginia results. Obviously that is just one region though, and rural areas in other states could drift back a little to Democrats, but at least right now it seems like the party has a lot of work to do on that front.
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I don't think they can. The divide is cultural right now so the dems can't fight Trump on cultural issues and win rural whites. It's going to come down to winning enough rural like Obama did to avoid more 2016s
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #27 on: November 14, 2017, 01:15:27 PM »

Frelinghuysen is an institution at this point. I'd be shocked if he goes down.

Institutions always go down in waves.

There are actual streets named after his family, it's gotta be one hell of a wave to knock the Frelinghuysen's out of office.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #28 on: November 14, 2017, 01:21:50 PM »
« Edited: November 14, 2017, 01:24:08 PM by Virginia »

Another significant issue is whether suburban areas becoming increasingly Democratic are primarily due to Whites with a college degree or more minorities living in the suburbs. Didn't Whites with a college degree constitute a higher share of the vote in Virginia's state elections than in 2016? Does anyone know if they voted more Democratic than in 2016?

In Virginia, white college graduates went from 49 - 45 Trump to 51 - 48 Northam, and Democratic downballot as well. As far as I can tell, their off-year gubernatorial numbers were about what you'd expect. White college grads are over-represented in midterms/off-years because they are more reliable voters than WWCs, so their swing to Democrats had a stronger impact. This was actually the premise of 538/Wasserman's piece on "the year of the angry white college graduate," where they postulated that white college grads being over-represented due to superior turnout and demoralized WWC Republicans could produce Dem wins in a lot more areas than people think.

I don't have a breakdown of the demos of all the HoD districts, but there were definitely a handful if not more that Republicans had no business holding, and were probably destined to lose as soon as a Republican POTUS took office and the usual enthusiasm gap reversed itself.

All in all, I agree with what Wulfric said. The wave is mostly going to hit suburban/urban areas, and only select rural areas will swing towards Democrats. That is, outside of any typical freak upsets that come with waves.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #29 on: November 14, 2017, 01:24:20 PM »

It'd be hard to deny that a wave is building; New Jersey and Virginia were only a taste of what's to come next year. But, even more important (at least in the long-term) is whether Democratic gains will be limited almost entirely to urban and suburban Congressional Districts or if it'll extend to rural ones as well.

Doesn't really seem like it if you go by the Virginia results. Obviously that is just one region though, and rural areas in other states could drift back a little to Democrats, but at least right now it seems like the party has a lot of work to do on that front.

Another significant issue is whether suburban areas becoming increasingly Democratic are primarily due to Whites with a college degree or more minorities living in the suburbs. Didn't Whites with a college degree constitute a higher share of the vote in Virginia's state elections than in 2016? Does anyone know if they voted more Democratic than in 2016?

If you go by the exit polls, Northam won Virginia by a larger margin than Clinton did last year largely because whites with a college degree supported him more than they did Clinton, and because they constituted a larger share of the vote.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/local/virginia-politics/governor-exit-polls
http://www.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls/virginia/president

%age of the Virginia electorate who are white / no college degree in 2016: 29%
%age of the Virginia electorate who are white / no college degree in 2017: 26%

%age of the Virginia electorate who are white / college degree in 2016: 38%
%age of the Virginia electorate who are white / college degree in 2017: 41%

2016 margin among whites without a college degree: Trump +47
2017 margin among whites without a college degree: Gillespie +46

2016 margin among whites with a college degree: Trump +4
2017 margin among whites with a college degree: Northam +3
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UncleSam
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« Reply #30 on: November 14, 2017, 01:49:24 PM »

How did whites with a college degree vote in the HoD races, though? Obviously Democrats made gains but they made them primarily in a Clinton districts - was that a result of the white college vote swinging, or simply a continuation of 2016 top-ballot preferences trickling further down the ballot?
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mvd10
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« Reply #31 on: November 14, 2017, 01:53:05 PM »


Edwards was running in a deep red seat though. Frelinghuysen's seat is R+3 (and as superbudgie already said, Frelinghuysen is an institution).
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #32 on: November 14, 2017, 01:54:06 PM »


Edwards was running in a deep red seat though. Frelinghuysen's seat is R+3 (and as superbudgie already said, Frelinghuysen is an institution).

I'd argue that Edwards was an instutition as well, given that he was in Congress for 20 years before he lost.
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mvd10
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« Reply #33 on: November 14, 2017, 01:57:26 PM »


Edwards was running in a deep red seat though. Frelinghuysen's seat is R+3 (and as superbudgie already said, Frelinghuysen is an institution).

I'd argue that Edwards was an instutition as well, given that he was in Congress for 20 years before he lost.

Yeah, I got that but Edwards was in more trouble because his district was much less favourable to his party than Frelinghuysen's (I didn't know Edwards lost by that much though).
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Holy Unifying Centrist
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« Reply #34 on: November 14, 2017, 01:57:55 PM »

It'd be hard to deny that a wave is building; New Jersey and Virginia were only a taste of what's to come next year. But, even more important (at least in the long-term) is whether Democratic gains will be limited almost entirely to urban and suburban Congressional Districts or if it'll extend to rural ones as well.

We've seen indication that it won't extend to many rural districts. The Special Elections in KS-4, MT-AL, and SC-5 were closer than they should have been, but ultimately Democrats were unable to win. Guadagno won most rural counties in the NJ Governor race. In the UT-3 Special Election, Curtis (R) won nearly 60% of the vote. And almost all of the VA HoD pickups were in Urban or Suburban seats. There will be exceptions - TX-23 could arguably be classified as rural, for instance - but they will be few in number.

Good job disproving your entire post. Rural areas (the most elastic areas in the country) will swing bigly too
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Virginiá
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« Reply #35 on: November 14, 2017, 01:58:53 PM »

How did whites with a college degree vote in the HoD races, though? Obviously Democrats made gains but they made them primarily in a Clinton districts - was that a result of the white college vote swinging, or simply a continuation of 2016 top-ballot preferences trickling further down the ballot?

That is a good question. I don't think there is any EP data for that. If you went by some of the earlier polls that showed large HoD generic numbers, I do believe Democrats led in at least one of them with white college grads.

However, considering how badly HoD Democrats were performing in 2013 relative to now, it's perfectly plausible to think that a substantial number of white college graduates shifted from R->D preference based on Obama/Clinton support, and that Northam's even better support is simply over-performing white college grad generic Dem support.

In other words, as we all know white college graduates tend to be more supportive of top-ticket Dem candidates, with downballot Democrats generally under-performing. In this case, that might still hold true.
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #36 on: November 14, 2017, 02:06:52 PM »
« Edited: November 14, 2017, 02:08:24 PM by superbudgie1582 »


Edwards was running in a deep red seat though. Frelinghuysen's seat is R+3 (and as superbudgie already said, Frelinghuysen is an institution).

I'd argue that Edwards was an instutition as well, given that he was in Congress for 20 years before he lost.

The Frelinghuysen family has been in politics for over 200 years. Let that sink in, since the founding of the United States. Frelinghuysen's father was a congressman for 20 years. I can't overstate how much of an institution this family is.
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Roronoa D. Law
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« Reply #37 on: November 14, 2017, 02:41:14 PM »


Edwards was running in a deep red seat though. Frelinghuysen's seat is R+3 (and as superbudgie already said, Frelinghuysen is an institution).

I'd argue that Edwards was an instutition as well, given that he was in Congress for 20 years before he lost.

The Frelinghuysen family has been in politics for over 200 years. Let that sink in, since the founding of the United States. Frelinghuysen's father was a congressman for 20 years. I can't overstate how much of an institution this family is.
Institution didn't save Hillary and Jeb. And it looks like it not going to save Chris in Illinois.
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Holmes
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« Reply #38 on: November 14, 2017, 02:45:51 PM »

Boucher being an institution didn't save him in VA-09 in 2010. Institutions do go down on waves. Quite a few went down last week in some VA HoD seats.
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mvd10
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« Reply #39 on: November 14, 2017, 03:09:33 PM »

The thing is that Boucher and Edwards ran in R+20 districts. Frelinghuysen's district voted for Trump in 2016. He could go down in a wave, but I think there are a lot of incumbents who should be more worried than Frelinghuysen (including the other NJ Republicans).
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #40 on: November 14, 2017, 03:50:05 PM »


Edwards was running in a deep red seat though. Frelinghuysen's seat is R+3 (and as superbudgie already said, Frelinghuysen is an institution).

I'd argue that Edwards was an instutition as well, given that he was in Congress for 20 years before he lost.

The Frelinghuysen family has been in politics for over 200 years. Let that sink in, since the founding of the United States. Frelinghuysen's father was a congressman for 20 years. I can't overstate how much of an institution this family is.

This would be a lot more meaningful if he represented some rural area that hasn't changed much in 200 years, such as Vermont, where his name would actually be a household name and the family as a whole remembered fondly. "Frelinghuysen" is not a household name in New Jersey, even within his district, and the people of Morris County (and the other parts of his district) are not the kind of people that are going to view 200 years of electing Frelinghuysens as an especially important tradition (or even one meaningful to them). He's not nearly as much of an institution as you are implying.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #41 on: November 14, 2017, 07:30:50 PM »

YES, 48-43 in my district! Go Ed Meier and Colin Allred!
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Pericles
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« Reply #42 on: November 14, 2017, 07:33:50 PM »

WAVE!!!
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #43 on: November 14, 2017, 08:17:10 PM »

I am with mvd10 on this issue. Comparisons to people like Chet Edwards are ultimately non-ideal comparisons.
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BL53931
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« Reply #44 on: November 14, 2017, 10:09:00 PM »

http://bradashfordforcongress.com/new-poll-trump-bacon-underwater-omaha-suburbs/

First polling I've seen on this race. Bacon has high unfavorables.
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Cactus Jack
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« Reply #45 on: November 14, 2017, 10:35:44 PM »

I really wish the Democrats would run someone younger here. I suspect Omaha will be theirs forever before too long, and they need to start investing in the long-term.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #46 on: November 15, 2017, 01:34:57 AM »
« Edited: November 15, 2017, 02:53:08 AM by NOVA Green »

When you look at this list, think of the races they didn't poll

NY 01, KS 03, VA 10, MN 02, WA 08, CA 49, CA 39, CO 06, FL 25, PA 06, PA 07, PA 08, PA 15.

I mean, that's the whole game there folks... hard to see D's not pick up 75% of these races at this rate.

What about AZ-02, AZ-06, and AZ-08?

I know there are some pretty gerrymander precincts  squeezed together to create a "favorable Safe 'Pub seat", but wouldn't be surprised to see AZ-02 flip in '18, CD-06 that includes Scottsdale (Which saw the greatest swings of any City in Maricopa County in '16) could well likely see an even greater swing at the House level in '18 among College educated Anglos.... although granted this district also includes some Exurban and Rural areas that swung towards Trump as well...

AZ-08 might be a bigger stretch, but note that Glendale almost voted Democratic in '16, and as we have seen in Virginia, when major swings happen even the reliably Republican Exurbs join in on the Party....

If I was was a 'Pub in these three seats I would be working my tail off night and day to disassociate myself with the national brand, just as McCain and Flake have been doing for awhile....

'Pubs start losing the Anglo vote in the Phoenix 'Burbs and 'Exurbs, it's game over folks and Arizona becomes the New California, not as much because initially because of a gradual shift in both the relative size and and electoral voting patterns of Latinos, but because they have lost the support of younger and Middle-Aged Anglos, as well as those with College educations and/or higher income levels....

Although I am not particularly familiar with these three Representatives, nor their relative popularity  within their districts, but something tells me that at this point their brand is severely damaged by continued support for a President on most major policy issues....

Granted they are stuck between a rock and a hard place, just like Flake (Although definitely NOT McCain)....

Still, it appears that we saw a dramatic collapse of confidence in the Republican brand in the major population centers of these districts, and I suspect that these districts include some of the Suburban/Exurban areas that might well flip hard against the national 'Pub brand come 2018, even more so than in '16.....
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
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« Reply #47 on: November 15, 2017, 01:57:49 AM »

What about AZ-02, AZ-06, and AZ-08?

I know there are some pretty gerrymander precincts  squeezed together to create a "favorable Safe 'Pub seat", but wouldn't be surprised to see AZ-02 flip in '18, CD-06 that includes Scottsdale (Which saw the greatest swings of any City in Maricopa County in '16) could well likely see an even greater swing at the House level in '18 among College educated Anglos.... although granted this district also includes some Exurban and Rural areas that swung towards Trump as well...

AZ-08 might be a bigger stretch, but note that Glendale almost voted Democratic in '16, and as we have seen in Virginia, when major swings happen even the reliably Republican Exurbs join in on the Party....

I was was a 'Pub in these three seats I would be working my tail off night and day to disassociate myself with the national brand, just as McCain and Flake have been doing for awhile....

'Pubs start losing the Anglo vote in the Phoenix 'Burbs and 'Exurbs, it's game over folks and Arizona becomes the New California, not as much because initially because of a gradual shift in both the relative size and and electoral voting patterns of Latinos, but because they have lost the support of younger and Middle-Aged Anglos, as well as those with College educations and/or higher income levels....

Although I am not particularly familiar with these three Representatives, nor their relative popularity  within their districts, but something tells me that at this point their brand is severely damaged by continued support for a President on most major policy issues....

Granted they are stuck between a rock and a hard place, just like Flake (Although definitely NOT McCain)....

Still, it appears that we saw a dramatic collapse of confidence in the Republican brand in the major population centers of these districts, and I suspect that these districts include some of the Suburban/Exurban areas that might well flip hard against the national 'Pub brand come 2018, even more so than in '16.....
AZ 06 is maaaayyyybe attainable. AZ 02 will probably flip. AZ 08 isn't Glendale--its the retirees laden exurbs beyond it. Personally, I'm curious to see if any of the special election seats KS 04, SC 05, GA 06, MG AL could flip.
Does anyone think a democrat held seat will flip?
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
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« Reply #48 on: November 15, 2017, 01:59:12 AM »

Goodbye, Dana Rohrabacher. You won't be missed.
Please Technocracy Timmy, vote him out!
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #49 on: November 15, 2017, 03:20:21 AM »

What about AZ-02, AZ-06, and AZ-08?

I know there are some pretty gerrymander precincts  squeezed together to create a "favorable Safe 'Pub seat", but wouldn't be surprised to see AZ-02 flip in '18, CD-06 that includes Scottsdale (Which saw the greatest swings of any City in Maricopa County in '16) could well likely see an even greater swing at the House level in '18 among College educated Anglos.... although granted this district also includes some Exurban and Rural areas that swung towards Trump as well...

AZ-08 might be a bigger stretch, but note that Glendale almost voted Democratic in '16, and as we have seen in Virginia, when major swings happen even the reliably Republican Exurbs join in on the Party....

I was was a 'Pub in these three seats I would be working my tail off night and day to disassociate myself with the national brand, just as McCain and Flake have been doing for awhile....

'Pubs start losing the Anglo vote in the Phoenix 'Burbs and 'Exurbs, it's game over folks and Arizona becomes the New California, not as much because initially because of a gradual shift in both the relative size and and electoral voting patterns of Latinos, but because they have lost the support of younger and Middle-Aged Anglos, as well as those with College educations and/or higher income levels....

Although I am not particularly familiar with these three Representatives, nor their relative popularity  within their districts, but something tells me that at this point their brand is severely damaged by continued support for a President on most major policy issues....

Granted they are stuck between a rock and a hard place, just like Flake (Although definitely NOT McCain)....

Still, it appears that we saw a dramatic collapse of confidence in the Republican brand in the major population centers of these districts, and I suspect that these districts include some of the Suburban/Exurban areas that might well flip hard against the national 'Pub brand come 2018, even more so than in '16.....
AZ 06 is maaaayyyybe attainable. AZ 02 will probably flip. AZ 08 isn't Glendale--its the retirees laden exurbs beyond it. Personally, I'm curious to see if any of the special election seats KS 04, SC 05, GA 06, MG AL could flip.
Does anyone think a democrat held seat will flip?

Bold for AZ reply----- yeah I'm skeptical about AZ-08 as well, considering the '16 vote numbers from places like Peoria, Sun City, Surprise for example...

I know most of the population of the CD isn't included within the City of Glendale, but still the Western 'Burbs and Exurbs of Maricopa within the CD are perhaps the most volatile in a "wave election" and if "Boom Town/ Exurbs".... check out the Patchwork Nation website, to look at how various counties and communities in the US are broken down in terms of national definitions, although it's better to check out the original work from the library published in 2010, and then just check out the website for demographic data, etc....

http://www.patchworknation.org/

Although I haven't run the '12/'16 numbers compared to the '00/'04/'08, "Boom Towns" overall went:

2000:  42-56 R (+14% R)
2004: 41-58 R  (+17% R)
2008: 47-52 R  (+ 5% R)

So the fast growing exurban communities are extremely volatile, but still Peoria and Surprise swung marginally Democratic between '12 > '16, even although the total Republican raw vote margins increased....

Would be interesting to look at comparative election results for "Sheriff Joe" to see where the swings went in this district..... Haven't run the numbers yet, but might be able to provide data points for a compare/contrast in terms of potential '18 swings in CD-06 and CD-08....

It really doesn't take that much of a swing in these type of exurban communities to flip a district, and plus Flake and McCain are pretty well respected out there, and if they are buckin' the Trump that sort of indicates that they're feeling the vibes from these types of fast growing communities in Metro Phoenix....


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