PPP: 15 more polls of competitive House districts

[Virginiá]

It'd be hard to deny that a wave is building; New Jersey and Virginia were only a taste of what's to come next year. But, even more important (at least in the long-term) is whether Democratic gains will be limited almost entirely to urban and suburban Congressional Districts or if it'll extend to rural ones as well.

Doesn't really seem like it if you go by the Virginia results. Obviously that is just one region though, and rural areas in other states could drift back a little to Democrats, but at least right now it seems like the party has a lot of work to do on that front.

NY-19:
Democratic candidate 46%
Faso 40%

!! ZEPHYR'S REVENGE !!

2018 really really the best time for her to run. I suppose she could again, since her first campaign was actually for governor, so it's not like she's running for a 3rd time for the same office. Either way, I'd love for her to be in the House.

[Virginiá]

Another significant issue is whether suburban areas becoming increasingly Democratic are primarily due to Whites with a college degree or more minorities living in the suburbs. Didn't Whites with a college degree constitute a higher share of the vote in Virginia's state elections than in 2016? Does anyone know if they voted more Democratic than in 2016?

In Virginia, white college graduates went from 49 - 45 Trump to 51 - 48 Northam, and Democratic downballot as well. As far as I can tell, their off-year gubernatorial numbers were about what you'd expect. White college grads are over-represented in midterms/off-years because they are more reliable voters than WWCs, so their swing to Democrats had a stronger impact. This was actually the premise of 538/Wasserman's piece on "the year of the angry white college graduate," where they postulated that white college grads being over-represented due to superior turnout and demoralized WWC Republicans could produce Dem wins in a lot more areas than people think.

I don't have a breakdown of the demos of all the HoD districts, but there were definitely a handful if not more that Republicans had no business holding, and were probably destined to lose as soon as a Republican POTUS took office and the usual enthusiasm gap reversed itself.

All in all, I agree with what Wulfric said. The wave is mostly going to hit suburban/urban areas, and only select rural areas will swing towards Democrats. That is, outside of any typical freak upsets that come with waves.

[Virginiá]

How did whites with a college degree vote in the HoD races, though? Obviously Democrats made gains but they made them primarily in a Clinton districts - was that a result of the white college vote swinging, or simply a continuation of 2016 top-ballot preferences trickling further down the ballot?

That is a good question. I don't think there is any EP data for that. If you went by some of the earlier polls that showed large HoD generic numbers, I do believe Democrats led in at least one of them with white college grads.

However, considering how badly HoD Democrats were performing in 2013 relative to now, it's perfectly plausible to think that a substantial number of white college graduates shifted from R->D preference based on Obama/Clinton support, and that Northam's even better support is simply over-performing white college grad generic Dem support.

In other words, as we all know white college graduates tend to be more supportive of top-ticket Dem candidates, with downballot Democrats generally under-performing. In this case, that might still hold true.