It'd be hard to deny that a wave is building; New Jersey and Virginia were only a taste of what's to come next year. But, even more important (at least in the long-term) is whether Democratic gains will be limited almost entirely to urban and suburban Congressional Districts or if it'll extend to rural ones as well.
We've seen indication that it won't extend to many rural districts. The Special Elections in KS-4, MT-AL, and SC-5 were closer than they should have been, but ultimately Democrats were unable to win. Guadagno won most rural counties in the NJ Governor race. In the UT-3 Special Election, Curtis (R) won nearly 60% of the vote. And almost all of the VA HoD pickups were in Urban or Suburban seats. There will be exceptions - TX-23 could arguably be classified as rural, for instance - but they will be few in number.
Good job disproving your entire post. Rural areas (the most elastic areas in the country) will swing bigly too
