What about AZ-02, AZ-06, and AZ-08?
I know there are some pretty gerrymander precincts squeezed together to create a "favorable Safe 'Pub seat", but wouldn't be surprised to see AZ-02 flip in '18, CD-06 that includes Scottsdale (Which saw the greatest swings of any City in Maricopa County in '16) could well likely see an even greater swing at the House level in '18 among College educated Anglos.... although granted this district also includes some Exurban and Rural areas that swung towards Trump as well...
AZ-08 might be a bigger stretch, but note that Glendale almost voted Democratic in '16, and as we have seen in Virginia, when major swings happen even the reliably Republican Exurbs join in on the Party....
I was was a 'Pub in these three seats I would be working my tail off night and day to disassociate myself with the national brand, just as McCain and Flake have been doing for awhile....
'Pubs start losing the Anglo vote in the Phoenix 'Burbs and 'Exurbs, it's game over folks and Arizona becomes the New California, not as much because initially because of a gradual shift in both the relative size and and electoral voting patterns of Latinos, but because they have lost the support of younger and Middle-Aged Anglos, as well as those with College educations and/or higher income levels....
Although I am not particularly familiar with these three Representatives, nor their relative popularity within their districts, but something tells me that at this point their brand is severely damaged by continued support for a President on most major policy issues....
Granted they are stuck between a rock and a hard place, just like Flake (Although definitely NOT McCain)....
Still, it appears that we saw a dramatic collapse of confidence in the Republican brand in the major population centers of these districts, and I suspect that these districts include some of the Suburban/Exurban areas that might well flip hard against the national 'Pub brand come 2018, even more so than in '16.....
AZ 06 is maaaayyyybe attainable. AZ 02 will probably flip. AZ 08 isn't Glendale--its the retirees laden exurbs beyond it. Personally, I'm curious to see if any of the special election seats KS 04, SC 05, GA 06, MG AL could flip.
Does anyone think a democrat held seat will flip?
