Coup in Zimbabwe: Mugabe under house arrest

[Dereich]

Obviously Santander’s evergreen warning holds true, though it’s hard to see how anyone could be worse than Mugabe

Being exactly the same, except younger, would be worse. At least Mugabe is 92; most of his problems over the last few years have been tied to succession. His replacement might have years ahead of him to do awful things.

[Nhoj]

FWIW the person who is expected to be put into power (the former VP) was Mugabe's former defense minister, and is still considered a hardliner.

Though Grace and her loyalists have mostly been running the country for the last few years. Which is to say he could still be a improvement over them.

[Dereich]

I'd recommend that anyone who wants a good laugh look at the Orwellian messages of the ZANU-PF Youth League twitter account which is RAPIDLY getting with the times.

From this:

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To this, which includes throwing their leader under the bus:

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[Ebsy]

Successful coups usually occur with little more than a whisper and unconfirmed reports of sporadic gunfire and tanks in the streets. The loud ones are usually the ones that fail.

[RFayette]

Well, some good news is always nice.  Not sure if it will be much better, but Mugabe is about as bad as you can get.

[Antonio the Sixth]

WITH PEACEFUL APLOMB

[Cactus Jack]

Couldn't have happened to a nicer genocidal maniac.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

It's now official. Mugabe is out!

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

It really does seem like this is being done "with peaceful aplomb". A shame, I was really hoping that Mugabe would get the Gaddafi treatment.

[Dereich]

It's now official. Mugabe is out!

What was your source for this? Things I see say Mugabe is still in, possibly until December or the end of his term.

[vanguard96]

What's certain that if socialism wasn't once again providing the backdrop for a tinpot dictator that we would not be having this conversation. In that the successors being talked about are cut from the same cloth - his wife or the top military butchers of the past the prospects for meaningful economic reform are limited much as they are in Venezuela. Both countries had bouts of hyperinflation, ridiculous grabs of private property, extrajudicial killings, corrupt deals, and Marxism as the core value of the one-state parties in charge. Sad to see the leftist Zuma approaching the situation from the point of a view of helping Mugabe.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

It's now official. Mugabe is out!

What was your source for this? Things I see say Mugabe is still in, possibly until December or the end of his term.

My source, like my post, clearly was mid-air over a shark. I don't think Mugabe's position is tenable through the week regardless.

[AndyHogan14]

According to the Guardian, Mugabe is set to resign by tomorrow.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/nov/19/robert-mugabe-set-to-resign-as-president-of-zimbabwe-live

[The Free North]

The witch is dead.

[The Other Castro]

Mugabe just refused to resign. Looks like impeachment time.

[AndyHogan14]

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https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/nov/19/robert-mugabe-set-to-resign-as-president-of-zimbabwe-live

[Beet]

What is the chance of civil war and South African military intervention?

[The Free North]

What is the chance of civil war and South African military intervention?

It doesnt appear Mugabe has much support amongst the military establishment or amongst the people, so a 'civil war' would be some version of him getting forcibly removed from power and kicking the soldier who deports him to wherever he spends the rest of his miserable life.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Lots of peaceful aplomb on both sides!

[The Free North]

What is the chance of civil war and South African military intervention?

It doesnt appear Mugabe has much support amongst the military establishment or amongst the people, so a 'civil war' would be some version of him getting forcibly removed from power and kicking the soldier who deports him to wherever he spends the rest of his miserable life.

And....evidently there are reports coming out now that some elements of the army have sided with Mugabe against the will of the party and apparently the people.

https://twitter.com/AndrewWJHarding/status/932340928303587328

[Dereich]

Impeachment is going to be interesting; it requires a 2/3 majority that ZANU-PF doesn't have. The new ZANU people have been sidelining opposition since the military takeover turned out so successfully...but if they want to keep the impeachment process nice and constitutional, maybe the opposition will have some leverage after all. 

[Lachi]

Impeachment is going to be interesting; it requires a 2/3 majority that ZANU-PF doesn't have. The new ZANU people have been sidelining opposition since the military takeover turned out so successfully...but if they want to keep the impeachment process nice and constitutional, maybe the opposition will have some leverage after all. 

ZANU-PF have 196 seats, which is 75.6% of the seats. Well above the 2/3 majority needed for impeachment.

[MaxQue]

Impeachment is going to be interesting; it requires a 2/3 majority that ZANU-PF doesn't have. The new ZANU people have been sidelining opposition since the military takeover turned out so successfully...but if they want to keep the impeachment process nice and constitutional, maybe the opposition will have some leverage after all. 

ZANU-PF have 196 seats, which is 75.6% of the seats. Well above the 2/3 majority needed for impeachment.

2/3 in both the House and the Senate. ZANU-PF is a bit short on the Senate, with all the tribal chiefs and everything (they probably support/are members of ZANU-PF, but they are harder to whip, I would assume).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The opposition aren't exactly pro-Mugabe, do note.

[Dereich]

The opposition aren't exactly pro-Mugabe, do note.

Maybe not, but I doubt they're senseless. When ZANU-PF bigwigs are eager to shut the opposition out of the process the moment they can and with Mugabe being weak and isolated, whats the harm in holding back on impeachment to force concessions? A united and unified ZANU-PF led by some of its worst hardliners is unlikely to allow free elections unless they're forced to do so; this might be the last time the opposition will have leverage over anything for years.