Politico / Morning Consult national poll: Biden 46% Trump 35%

[Mr. Morden]

Morning Consult national poll, conducted Nov. 9-11:

https://www.politico.com/story/2017/11/15/biden-trump-2020-elections-244900

Biden 46%
Trump 35%

[Sirius_]

That’s a YUGE shocker.
Obvious sarcasm

[Sir Mohamed]

An incumbent president at 35% after barely a year in office and with a strong economy? Sad!

[progressive85]

ABT (Anybody But Trump).  I'd vote for John Kasich even.  I don't care a single iota about ideology in 2020.  Just give me a moderate, reasonable, balanced, GROWN UP person that leaves Twitter to the teens.  #ToxicTrump  #PopThatEgo

[Sirius_]

An incumbent president at 35% after barely a year in office and with a strong economy? Sad!

He inherited the strong economy, and it’s not growing any faster since he took office.

[Sir Mohamed]

An incumbent president at 35% after barely a year in office and with a strong economy? Sad!

He inherited the strong economy, and it’s not growing any faster since he took office.

I know, of course. But I think his numbers would further tank if the economy goes down.

[Mr. Morden]

Crosstabs:

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015f-b7ca-d250-a7ff-bfef15c60002

men: Trump +3
women: Biden +24
age 18-29: Biden +31
age 30-44: Biden +19
age 45-54: Biden +8
age 55-64: Biden +2
age 65+: Trump +2
under $50k income: Biden +14
$50-100k income: Biden +9
over $100k income: Biden +6
white: Biden +1
Hispanic: Biden +29
black: Biden +61
urban: Biden +24
suburban: Biden +14
rural: Trump +5

Northeast: Biden +19
West: Biden +15
Midwest: Biden +9
South: Biden +6

Biden wins 11% of Trump ’16 voters and 12% of Romney ’12 voters.
Trump wins 3% of Clinton ’16 voters and 12% of Obama ’12 voters.

That said, here’s how this sample claims to have voted in the past two elections:

2016:
Trump 38%
Clinton 36%
someone else 9%

2012:
Obama 45%
Romney 27%
someone else 5%
didn’t vote 23%

[HAnnA MArin County]

In before jfern calls Biden a neoliberal warmongering corporatist Democrat.

[Sirius_]

An incumbent president at 35% after barely a year in office and with a strong economy? Sad!

He inherited the strong economy, and it’s not growing any faster since he took office.

I know, of course. But I think his numbers would further tank if the economy goes down.

Of course they would.

[Illiniwek]

Trump wins 3% of Clinton ’16 voters

Who in that ^%&#$& are these people?

[Mr. Morden]

Trump wins 3% of Clinton ’16 voters

Who in that ^%&#$& are these people?

We supposedly have one right on this forum:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=277314.msg5910126#msg5910126

Presumably, there are some #NeverTrump Republicans / Republican leaners who voted for Clinton because they thought Trump would start World War III or something, and now see him governing enough like a generic Republican that they're up for voting for him next time.  Or maybe some of them just had some particular reason for backing Clinton (like "first woman president") that wouldn't apply if Trump's opponent is Biden or someone else.

[Karpatsky]

This isn't a great result for Biden. He really should be more than breaking 50%, and the fact that he's not shows that there's a hidden weakness to his candidacy.

[mvd10]

Biden 46% Trump 35%

Suburbs only:
Biden 48% Trump 34%

SUBURBAN CURBSTOMPING IN 3...2...1...

White postgraduates (48-36), white college graduates (51-39) and people earning over $100k (47-41) all go for Biden. But the wealthy still are Trump's strongest supporters .

[BlueSwan]

This isn't a great result for Biden. He really should be more than breaking 50%, and the fact that he's not shows that there's a hidden weakness to his candidacy.

Agreed. 19% undecided/other is scarily high. Presumably the majority of these people are GOP'ers who don't like Trump but will likely end up voting for him anyway, just like they did in 2016. They just need an excuse to do so, and they will find it, just like they did last year.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Yep. I believe that Biden would run a skilled campaign with unified backing from Clinton Supporters, Sanders Supporters, and Obama/Trump voters. The right would not be nearly as engaged as they were in '12 and '16 because Biden is a white, heterosexual, cisgender male and has no major scandals. I predict that Biden could win up to 60 percent of the NPV.

[Doimper]

Holy gender gap.

[mvd10]

Biden 46% Trump 35%

Suburbs only:
Biden 48% Trump 34%

SUBURBAN CURBSTOMPING IN 3...2...1...

White postgraduates (48-36), white college graduates (51-39) and people earning over $100k (47-41) all go for Biden. But the wealthy still are Trump's strongest supporters .

Attaboy. Glad some Republicans are heeding my warnings

I've resisted, but finally I embraced the SUBURBAN CURBSTOMPING. You have to see the beauty through the pain .

[RI]

Biden would destroy Trump, especially if he stayed true to himself and didn't go chasing the fickle whims of the left.

[Sirius_]

Biden would destroy Trump, especially if he stayed true to himself and didn't go chasing the fickle whims of the left.

[IceSpear]

Yep. I believe that Biden would run a skilled campaign with unified backing from Clinton Supporters, Sanders Supporters, and Obama/Trump voters. The right would not be nearly as engaged as they were in '12 and '16 because Biden is a white, heterosexual, cisgender male and has no major scandals. I predict that Biden could win up to 60 percent of the NPV.

Not even Jesus himself could win 60% of the vote in this day and age.

[American2020]

Crosstabs:

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015f-b7ca-d250-a7ff-bfef15c60002

men: Trump +3
women: Biden +24
age 18-29: Biden +31
age 30-44: Biden +19
age 45-54: Biden +8
age 55-64: Biden +2
age 65+: Trump +2
under $50k income: Biden +14
$50-100k income: Biden +9
over $100k income: Biden +6
white: Biden +1
Hispanic: Biden +29
black: Biden +61
urban: Biden +24
suburban: Biden +14
rural: Trump +5

Northeast: Biden +19
West: Biden +15
Midwest: Biden +9
South: Biden +6

Biden wins 11% of Trump ’16 voters and 12% of Romney ’12 voters.
Trump wins 3% of Clinton ’16 voters and 12% of Obama ’12 voters.

That said, here’s how this sample claims to have voted in the past two elections:

2016:
Trump 38%
Clinton 36%
someone else 9%

2012:
Obama 45%
Romney 27%
someone else 5%
didn’t vote 23%

[mvd10]

Yep. I believe that Biden would run a skilled campaign with unified backing from Clinton Supporters, Sanders Supporters, and Obama/Trump voters. The right would not be nearly as engaged as they were in '12 and '16 because Biden is a white, heterosexual, cisgender male and has no major scandals. I predict that Biden could win up to 60 percent of the NPV.

Not even Jesus himself could win 60% of the vote in this day and age.

Joseph would. In Alabama.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

North: +15 Hillary -> +19 Biden
Midwest: +4 Trump -> +9 Biden
South: +8 Trump -> +6 Biden
West: +16 Hillary -> +15 Biden

Urban: +24 Hillary --> +24 Biden
Suburban: +4 Trump --> +14 Biden
Rural: +28 Trump --> +5 Trump

Biden gets the biggest swings in the South and Midwest according to this poll.

Edit: I'm an idiot. Didn't realize Biden was winning in the South.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Biden +1 with whites is pretty amazing.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

This isn't a great result for Biden. He really should be more than breaking 50%, and the fact that he's not shows that there's a hidden weakness to his candidacy.

Agreed. 19% undecided/other is scarily high. Presumably the majority of these people are GOP'ers who don't like Trump but will likely end up voting for him anyway, just like they did in 2016. They just need an excuse to do so, and they will find it, just like they did last year.

A lot of the undecided are urban voters and black voters lol.

And there are more undecided democrats than republicans.