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|-+  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  2020 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: Likely Voter, TJ in Oregon, Virginia)
| | |-+  Who will win the popular vote?
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Democrat   -69 (93.2%)
Trump (or Pence)   -5 (6.8%)
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Total Voters: 74

Author Topic: Who will win the popular vote?  (Read 699 times)
Sir Mohamed
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« on: November 15, 2017, 10:22:12 am »

Make an early prediction: Regardless of who wins 270 electoral votes, who do you think will win the popular vote?

I think Trump (or Pence) just won't win the popular vote. As long as the Democrat is at over 60% in CA, around 60% in NY and TX remains to be within 8-12%, there is hardly a way for the GOP candidate to overcome the Democratic advantage. Even if Trump manages to outperform the 306 EVs from 2016 (for example through narrow wins in MN, NH or CO), a PV victory is almost out of reach if you ask me.
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« Reply #1 on: November 15, 2017, 11:55:57 am »

The Democrat.

If only that mattered.  Ugh.  (Well, at least the Electoral College kept Tilden out of the White House).
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« Reply #2 on: November 15, 2017, 12:30:03 pm »

The Democrat.

Trump has done nothing but disparage the millions of people who chose his opponent over him and he has done nothing to ease the concerns of Republican leaning third party voters.
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« Reply #3 on: November 15, 2017, 01:25:38 pm »

The Democrat, of course, but I hope, I really, really hope that Trump wins the popular vote while losing the electoral vote.
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« Reply #4 on: November 15, 2017, 01:33:11 pm »

Barring a "landslide" (by current standards), I think Democrats have pretty much a lock on PV victory.
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« Reply #5 on: November 15, 2017, 01:39:15 pm »

I don't see Trump improving his EC total, so I would have to say the Democrat.
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Peggy Peterson
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« Reply #6 on: November 15, 2017, 01:53:32 pm »

Democrats currently have the edge in the popular vote no matter who wins the electoral college because most of the largest state are Democrats or decided by single digits. I predict in 2020 the largest state that will vote Republican by double digits is TN.
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« Reply #7 on: November 15, 2017, 02:30:31 pm »

It's hard to see at this point where Trump makes up a ~3 million vote deficit. If anything, he's going to lose net votes in California and Texas. Florida should be very close again as always. Maybe New York, but that's a long shot. And there's only so much more you can milk out of the smaller states, especially when you consider how well he already performed in them in 2016.

Of course, if some type of black swan event like nuclear war caused his approval rating to surge, a strong third party that drew mainly from the anti-Trump pool, or if the Democrats nominated a pedophile or something, that could change. But in most realistic scenarios it's hard to see the Republicans winning the popular vote.
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« Reply #8 on: November 15, 2017, 02:52:49 pm »

It's hard to see at this point where Trump makes up a ~3 million vote deficit. If anything, he's going to lose net votes in California and Texas. Florida should be very close again as always. Maybe New York, but that's a long shot. And there's only so much more you can milk out of the smaller states, especially when you consider how well he already performed in them in 2016.

Of course, if some type of black swan event like nuclear war caused his approval rating to surge, a strong third party that drew mainly from the anti-Trump pool, or if the Democrats nominated a pedophile or something, that could change. But in most realistic scenarios it's hard to see the Republicans winning the popular vote.

Yeah, the cake is probably all but caked for Trump in terms of the popular vote. When 50% of people hate you (aka-strongly disapprove), you're never gonna win any of them over. His chance at reelection hinges entirely on whether or not he can stop any erosion in specific places that matter. Namely Wisconsin, FL, AZ, NC, and GA. I think he's probably losing Michigan and Pennsylvania at this point.
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« Reply #9 on: November 15, 2017, 02:54:45 pm »

The Democrat, obviously.
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« Reply #10 on: November 16, 2017, 03:59:59 pm »

Considering the poor approval ratings of this President, he will need some incredible miracles to get re-elected. 
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Lincoln Republican
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« Reply #11 on: November 16, 2017, 06:13:29 pm »

Dems, thanks to left coast radicals.
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maineiac4434🌲
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« Reply #12 on: November 16, 2017, 06:30:56 pm »

Republicans cannot win the popular vote.
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Lincoln Republican
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« Reply #13 on: November 16, 2017, 06:36:48 pm »

Republicans cannot win the popular vote.

Ah, but they can, with a popular GOP candidate against an unpopular Dem candidate.
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maineiac4434🌲
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« Reply #14 on: November 16, 2017, 06:39:11 pm »

Republicans cannot win the popular vote.

Ah, but they can, with a popular GOP candidate against an unpopular Dem candidate.
You sure? Hillary might be the most unpopular nominee in recent years and she still got 2.5 million more votes than Trump. I think the country is too polarized.
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Sensible-Progressive
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« Reply #15 on: November 16, 2017, 07:32:25 pm »

Republicans cannot win the popular vote.

Ah, but they can, with a popular GOP candidate against an unpopular Dem candidate.
You sure? Hillary might be the most unpopular nominee in recent years and she still got 2.5 million more votes than Trump. I think the country is too polarized.
While Hillary is unpopular so was trump a lot of people voted out of her of the other candidate if it was say Clinton V Kasich
Kasich would most probably win the popular vote
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« Reply #16 on: November 16, 2017, 07:35:22 pm »

Republicans cannot win the popular vote.

Ah, but they can, with a popular GOP candidate against an unpopular Dem candidate.
You sure? Hillary might be the most unpopular nominee in recent years and she still got 2.5 million more votes than Trump. I think the country is too polarized.
While Hillary is unpopular so was trump a lot of people voted out of her of the other candidate if it was say Clinton V Kasich
Kasich would most probably win the popular vote
Clinton still would have won the popular vote against Kasich. TX, AZ, and GA trending Democratic would prevent Kasich from winning the popular vote.
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maineiac4434🌲
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« Reply #17 on: November 16, 2017, 07:36:07 pm »

Republicans cannot win the popular vote.

Ah, but they can, with a popular GOP candidate against an unpopular Dem candidate.
You sure? Hillary might be the most unpopular nominee in recent years and she still got 2.5 million more votes than Trump. I think the country is too polarized.
While Hillary is unpopular so was trump a lot of people voted out of her of the other candidate if it was say Clinton V Kasich
Kasich would most probably win the popular vote
Nah. It'd be close, but I think she'd narrowly take it, maybe by around 250K.
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ERM64man
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« Reply #18 on: November 16, 2017, 07:39:05 pm »

Democrat still wins the popular vote. No Republican, whether Trump, Pence, or anyone else would win the popular vote.
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Lincoln Republican
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« Reply #19 on: November 17, 2017, 01:14:10 pm »

Democrat still wins the popular vote. No Republican, whether Trump, Pence, or anyone else would win the popular vote.

Never say never. 

Three years is an eternity in politics.

An election that saw a Reagan go against a Mondale would produce a Republican win in the popular vote.
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L.D. Smith, Aggie! It's Real Expenses Again
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« Reply #20 on: November 17, 2017, 01:38:13 pm »

Bush wasn't supposed to win the Popular Vote after the whole Gore thing...he proceeded to legit beat Kerry in that...100,000 more votes and Kerry would've won the Presidency despite this.
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