Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
December 15, 2017, 09:12:57 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Election 2018 predictions for US Senate are now open!.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  2020 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter, TJ in Wisco)
| | |-+  Who will win the popular vote?
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Poll
Question: -skip-
Democrat   -69 (93.2%)
Trump (or Pence)   -5 (6.8%)
Show Pie Chart
Total Voters: 74

Author Topic: Who will win the popular vote?  (Read 526 times)
Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4772
United States


View Profile
« on: November 15, 2017, 10:22:12 am »
Ignore

Make an early prediction: Regardless of who wins 270 electoral votes, who do you think will win the popular vote?

I think Trump (or Pence) just won't win the popular vote. As long as the Democrat is at over 60% in CA, around 60% in NY and TX remains to be within 8-12%, there is hardly a way for the GOP candidate to overcome the Democratic advantage. Even if Trump manages to outperform the 306 EVs from 2016 (for example through narrow wins in MN, NH or CO), a PV victory is almost out of reach if you ask me.
Logged

United Arab Emirates Immigrant, naturalized US citizen, resident of the wonderful state of California, devoted liberal Democrat. Any questions?

Endorsements:
- President: Kamala Harris
- CA Governor: Gavin Newsom
- CA Senate: Kevin de León

Congratulations to Doug Jones for making the impossible possible!

TDAS04
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11851
Nepal


View Profile
« Reply #1 on: November 15, 2017, 11:55:57 am »
Ignore

The Democrat.

If only that mattered.  Ugh.  (Well, at least the Electoral College kept Tilden out of the White House).
« Last Edit: November 15, 2017, 11:57:44 am by TDAS04 »Logged

Economic:  -2.71
Social:  -5.74
RFKFan68
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1523
United States


View Profile
« Reply #2 on: November 15, 2017, 12:30:03 pm »
Ignore

The Democrat.

Trump has done nothing but disparage the millions of people who chose his opponent over him and he has done nothing to ease the concerns of Republican leaning third party voters.
Logged

Ἅιδης
Hades
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1405


View Profile
« Reply #3 on: November 15, 2017, 01:25:38 pm »
Ignore

The Democrat, of course, but I hope, I really, really hope that Trump wins the popular vote while losing the electoral vote.
Logged

Kalwejt
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 48719
View Profile
« Reply #4 on: November 15, 2017, 01:33:11 pm »
Ignore

Barring a "landslide" (by current standards), I think Democrats have pretty much a lock on PV victory.
Logged

/
Because Gillibrand sig is too mainstream
RINO Tom
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8312
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.13, S: -4.70

View Profile
« Reply #5 on: November 15, 2017, 01:39:15 pm »
Ignore

I don't see Trump improving his EC total, so I would have to say the Democrat.
Logged

"Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt."

- Abraham Lincoln, 16th President
Patrick
Patrick97
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 494
United States


View Profile
« Reply #6 on: November 15, 2017, 01:53:32 pm »
Ignore

Democrats currently have the edge in the popular vote no matter who wins the electoral college because most of the largest state are Democrats or decided by single digits. I predict in 2020 the largest state that will vote Republican by double digits is TN.
Logged
IceSpear
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21998
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -5.70

P P

View Profile
« Reply #7 on: November 15, 2017, 02:30:31 pm »
Ignore

It's hard to see at this point where Trump makes up a ~3 million vote deficit. If anything, he's going to lose net votes in California and Texas. Florida should be very close again as always. Maybe New York, but that's a long shot. And there's only so much more you can milk out of the smaller states, especially when you consider how well he already performed in them in 2016.

Of course, if some type of black swan event like nuclear war caused his approval rating to surge, a strong third party that drew mainly from the anti-Trump pool, or if the Democrats nominated a pedophile or something, that could change. But in most realistic scenarios it's hard to see the Republicans winning the popular vote.
« Last Edit: November 15, 2017, 02:34:23 pm by IceSpear »Logged

PNM
Mizzouian
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2473
United States


View Profile
« Reply #8 on: November 15, 2017, 02:52:49 pm »
Ignore

It's hard to see at this point where Trump makes up a ~3 million vote deficit. If anything, he's going to lose net votes in California and Texas. Florida should be very close again as always. Maybe New York, but that's a long shot. And there's only so much more you can milk out of the smaller states, especially when you consider how well he already performed in them in 2016.

Of course, if some type of black swan event like nuclear war caused his approval rating to surge, a strong third party that drew mainly from the anti-Trump pool, or if the Democrats nominated a pedophile or something, that could change. But in most realistic scenarios it's hard to see the Republicans winning the popular vote.

Yeah, the cake is probably all but caked for Trump in terms of the popular vote. When 50% of people hate you (aka-strongly disapprove), you're never gonna win any of them over. His chance at reelection hinges entirely on whether or not he can stop any erosion in specific places that matter. Namely Wisconsin, FL, AZ, NC, and GA. I think he's probably losing Michigan and Pennsylvania at this point.
Logged

If Doug Jones can win Alabama, Phil Bredesen can win Tennessee and Beto O'Rourke can win Texas.

MT Treasurer
IndyRep
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15038
United States


View Profile
« Reply #9 on: November 15, 2017, 02:54:45 pm »
Ignore

The Democrat, obviously.
Logged

Let's Vote for ANNIE!
My favorite Annie Kuster ad

Vote Chris Sununu out of office!
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16470
United States


View Profile
« Reply #10 on: November 16, 2017, 03:59:59 pm »
Ignore

Considering the poor approval ratings of this President, he will need some incredible miracles to get re-elected. 
Logged



Your political compass

Economic Left/Right: -7.00
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.49
Lincoln Republican
Winfield
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13299


View Profile
« Reply #11 on: November 16, 2017, 06:13:29 pm »
Ignore

Dems, thanks to left coast radicals.
Logged

Chris Murphy 2020
MAINEiac4434
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4094
France


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -8.78

P P
View Profile
« Reply #12 on: November 16, 2017, 06:30:56 pm »
Ignore

Republicans cannot win the popular vote.
Logged

Lincoln Republican
Winfield
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13299


View Profile
« Reply #13 on: November 16, 2017, 06:36:48 pm »
Ignore

Republicans cannot win the popular vote.

Ah, but they can, with a popular GOP candidate against an unpopular Dem candidate.
Logged

Chris Murphy 2020
MAINEiac4434
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4094
France


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -8.78

P P
View Profile
« Reply #14 on: November 16, 2017, 06:39:11 pm »
Ignore

Republicans cannot win the popular vote.

Ah, but they can, with a popular GOP candidate against an unpopular Dem candidate.
You sure? Hillary might be the most unpopular nominee in recent years and she still got 2.5 million more votes than Trump. I think the country is too polarized.
Logged

Left-Libertarian
canis
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 602


View Profile
« Reply #15 on: November 16, 2017, 07:32:25 pm »
Ignore

Republicans cannot win the popular vote.

Ah, but they can, with a popular GOP candidate against an unpopular Dem candidate.
You sure? Hillary might be the most unpopular nominee in recent years and she still got 2.5 million more votes than Trump. I think the country is too polarized.
While Hillary is unpopular so was trump a lot of people voted out of her of the other candidate if it was say Clinton V Kasich
Kasich would most probably win the popular vote
Logged



 Endorsements
VA Governor Ralph Northam
NJ Governor Phil Murphy
CA Governor Gavin Newsom
AL Senate Doug Jones
2020 Presidential Al Franken, Elizabeth Warren and Steve Bullock
ERM64man
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1873


View Profile
« Reply #16 on: November 16, 2017, 07:35:22 pm »
Ignore

Republicans cannot win the popular vote.

Ah, but they can, with a popular GOP candidate against an unpopular Dem candidate.
You sure? Hillary might be the most unpopular nominee in recent years and she still got 2.5 million more votes than Trump. I think the country is too polarized.
While Hillary is unpopular so was trump a lot of people voted out of her of the other candidate if it was say Clinton V Kasich
Kasich would most probably win the popular vote
Clinton still would have won the popular vote against Kasich. TX, AZ, and GA trending Democratic would prevent Kasich from winning the popular vote.
Logged

Senate endorsements:
AZ: Kyrsten Sinema
CA: Dianne Feinstein
FL: Bill Nelson
MA: Elizabeth Warren
ME: Angus King
MT: Jon Tester
NE: Jane Raybould
NY: Kirsten Gillibrand
TX: Beto O'Rourke

2020 Presidential endorsement:
Elizabeth Warren
Chris Murphy 2020
MAINEiac4434
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4094
France


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -8.78

P P
View Profile
« Reply #17 on: November 16, 2017, 07:36:07 pm »
Ignore

Republicans cannot win the popular vote.

Ah, but they can, with a popular GOP candidate against an unpopular Dem candidate.
You sure? Hillary might be the most unpopular nominee in recent years and she still got 2.5 million more votes than Trump. I think the country is too polarized.
While Hillary is unpopular so was trump a lot of people voted out of her of the other candidate if it was say Clinton V Kasich
Kasich would most probably win the popular vote
Nah. It'd be close, but I think she'd narrowly take it, maybe by around 250K.
Logged

ERM64man
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1873


View Profile
« Reply #18 on: November 16, 2017, 07:39:05 pm »
Ignore

Democrat still wins the popular vote. No Republican, whether Trump, Pence, or anyone else would win the popular vote.
Logged

Senate endorsements:
AZ: Kyrsten Sinema
CA: Dianne Feinstein
FL: Bill Nelson
MA: Elizabeth Warren
ME: Angus King
MT: Jon Tester
NE: Jane Raybould
NY: Kirsten Gillibrand
TX: Beto O'Rourke

2020 Presidential endorsement:
Elizabeth Warren
Lincoln Republican
Winfield
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13299


View Profile
« Reply #19 on: November 17, 2017, 01:14:10 pm »
Ignore

Democrat still wins the popular vote. No Republican, whether Trump, Pence, or anyone else would win the popular vote.

Never say never. 

Three years is an eternity in politics.

An election that saw a Reagan go against a Mondale would produce a Republican win in the popular vote.
Logged

L.D. Smith, Aggie! It's Real Expenses Again
MormDem
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13476
United States


View Profile
« Reply #20 on: November 17, 2017, 01:38:13 pm »
Ignore

Bush wasn't supposed to win the Popular Vote after the whole Gore thing...he proceeded to legit beat Kerry in that...100,000 more votes and Kerry would've won the Presidency despite this.
Logged

Atlas PM Score:

S: 3.7
E: -7.4
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines