Bosse's Democratic Gerrymander Maps
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Author Topic: Bosse's Democratic Gerrymander Maps  (Read 1996 times)
Jeppe
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« on: November 15, 2017, 12:07:07 PM »
« edited: November 15, 2017, 12:44:59 PM by Bosse »

Arizona
5 Democratic seats - 4 Republican seats







District 1: R+20.87
Republican vote sink district, anchored in northwestern Maricopa county, attaching itself to Prescott and Mohave County. Incumbent would likely be Paul Gosar (R), from Prescott.

District 2: R+11.66
Another Republican vote sink district, within parts of western Maricopa county and the southwest corner of the state. Incumbent would likely be Trent Franks (R), from Glendale.

District 3: D+6.36
A Democratic seat based primarily in the city of Glendale, with small portions of Phoenix proper. More or less an open seat, although either Franks (R) or Gallego (D) could legitimately claim to be incumbents in this seat.

District 4: D+5.75
Another Democratic seat, based in Phoenix, stretching from Scottsdale to a few "urban villages" across the river. Incumbent would likely be Ruben Gallego (D), from Phoenix.

District 5: R+13.95
A Republican vote-sink district entirely within Maricopa county, situated in the northeast suburban and exurban portions of the county. Incumbent would likely be David Schweikert (R), from Scottsdale.

District 6: D+5.73
A Democratic seat based in Tempe that contains the Democratic friendly parts of Gilbert and Chandler, that stretches to a Native-American reservation south of Phoenix. Incumbent would likely be Kyrsten Sinema (D), from Phoenix.

District 7: R+12.13
A Republican vote sink district that stretches from the Phoenix southern suburbs to Tucson's northern suburbs. Incumbent would likely be Andy Biggs (R), from Gilbert.

District 8: D+4.59
A Democratic seat based mainly in Pima County, and Tucson proper. Incumbent would likely be Raul Grijalva (D), from Tucson.

District 9: D+3.99
A Democratic seat that stretches from Flagstaff to the Navajo Nations in the north to east Tucson. Incumbents Tom O'Holleran (D) and Martha McSally (R) could both be considered incumbents in this district.
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« Reply #1 on: November 15, 2017, 12:16:04 PM »

The map is not displaying.
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President of the civil service full of trans activists
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« Reply #2 on: November 15, 2017, 12:29:50 PM »

^ Imgur. Links are here.
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Jeppe
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« Reply #3 on: November 15, 2017, 12:45:20 PM »

Is there a way to upload images so that they appear on this site?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #4 on: November 15, 2017, 12:45:58 PM »
« Edited: November 15, 2017, 12:48:07 PM by Oryxslayer »

What are the HVAP for the districts? Arizona needs two 50% + 1 HVAP seats, and said seats typically need more than 50% + 1 because Hispanic voter registration is below the national average.

Also is this 2020 county projections, or just 2010? If it is 2010, then holy hell those are some big population deviations. The good mapmaker typically tries for a deviation below 1000/-1000, preferably 500/-500, or 2000/-2000 if you a drawing a map that specifically seeks to minimize county cuts. If it is 2020, Arizona will most likely be a gainer that year taking a extra seat.

Imgur is blocked on this site (too much traffic I think) need to use another site. I use https://imgbb.com/
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Jeppe
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« Reply #5 on: November 15, 2017, 02:36:46 PM »

Fixed some of the issues, including image links, VAP compliance, and population deviation.

Arizona: 5 Democratic seats, 4 Republican seats







District 1 (Blue): R+19.71
Republican vote-sink in the northwest portion of the state, stretching from the Utah border to the northern suburbs of Maricopa County. Incumbent would likely be Paul Gosar (R)

District 2 (Green): R+10.96
Republican vote-sink district that stretches from Yuma to western Maricopa county to the northern suburbs of Tucson. Incumbent would likely be Trent Franks (R).

District 3 (Purple): D+12.13
A majority Hispanic VAP (52.6%) district based in Glendale, with portions of Phoenix. Incumbent would likely be Ruben Gallego (D).

District 4 (Red): D+7.09
A district that contains much of southern Arizona, stretching from Yuma to Tucson to the New Mexico border. A majority Hispanic VAP district (50.2%). The incumbent would likely be Raul Grijalva (D).

District 5 (Yellow): D+4.56
A Democratic district that stretches from Tucson to the Navajo Nations in the northeast corner of the state, to Flagstaff. This district would pit incumbents Martha McSally (R) and Tom O'Halleran (D) against one another.

District 6 (Aquamarine): R+12.65
A Republican district anchored in northern Maricopa county, that stretches to the rural parts of the northern portions of the state. The incumbent would likely be David Schweikert (R).

District 7 (Grey): D+4.18
A Democratic district based in Maricopa county, that stretches from downtown Phoenix to Pinal County. There is no obvious incumbent in this district.

District 8 (Purple): D+4.24
A Democratic seat that contains Tempe, Mesa, and parts of Gilbert and Scottsdale. The incumbent would likely be Kyrsten Sinema (D).

District 9 (Teal): R+16.12
A Republican vote-sink district primarily located in the eastern Phoenix suburbs. The incumbent would likely be Andy Biggs (R).
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Dr. MB
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« Reply #6 on: November 15, 2017, 09:25:51 PM »

These districts aren't a whole lot worse looking than the current ones.
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muon2
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« Reply #7 on: November 16, 2017, 08:21:15 AM »
« Edited: November 16, 2017, 08:24:10 AM by muon2 »

Part of an Illinois 13-3 Gerrymander. Here's the Downstate seats. 3R-2D. I didn't draw the rest of Chicagoland cuz I'm lazy, but I've seen it done in other maps and it complies with DRA. The other 11 Chicagoland districts would obviously be safe D. The two D seats in this map are 59% Obama 2008 (successor to Bustos's seat). It probably went for Clinton by about 8 points, and I made a point for it to capture every major city that she carried in the area. The other one is the Metro East-Springfield-Decatur-Champaign-Bloomington seat Obama 2008 carried with 60% that Clinton carried by about 11 points.



Edited to use the large map.

The practical problem in Chicagoland is that the PVIs don't accurately predict congressional results. Obama was a popular favorite son and overperformed traditional averages, which skews the PVI. This was clearly seen in the 2010 and 2014 off-year results. Trump was an unusually poor fit as well and that continues the skew.

In 2011 the Dem map was guided by DCCC trying to maximize seats, but still they drew D+7 or better. That left them with two Pub sinks: IL-6 and 14. In 2021 Dems might be able to reduce one of those, but it is unlikely they can reduce both without risking a Dummymander in the 2022 off year.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #8 on: November 16, 2017, 08:40:18 AM »
« Edited: November 16, 2017, 08:46:24 AM by Oryxslayer »

Part of an Illinois 13-3 Gerrymander. Here's the Downstate seats. 3R-2D. I didn't draw the rest of Chicagoland cuz I'm lazy, but I've seen it done in other maps and it complies with DRA. The other 11 Chicagoland districts would obviously be safe D. The two D seats in this map are 59% Obama 2008 (successor to Bustos's seat). It probably went for Clinton by about 8 points, and I made a point for it to capture every major city that she carried in the area. The other one is the Metro East-Springfield-Decatur-Champaign-Bloomington seat Obama 2008 carried with 60% that Clinton carried by about 11 points.



Edited to use the large map.

The practical problem in Chicagoland is that the PVIs don't accurately predict congressional results. Obama was a popular favorite son and overperformed traditional averages, which skews the PVI. This was clearly seen in the 2010 and 2014 off-year results. Trump was an unusually poor fit as well and that continues the skew.

In 2011 the Dem map was guided by DCCC trying to maximize seats, but still they drew D+7 or better. That left them with two Pub sinks: IL-6 and 14. In 2021 Dems might be able to reduce one of those, but it is unlikely they can reduce both without risking a Dummymander in the 2022 off year.

Yeah I agree - don't see a way for dems to get out of at least 1 R seat in Chicagoland that is a exurban pack with tentacles grabbing right-leaning to fortify the Blue seats. If such a seat were to be cut, the map up there would have to get real messy and spread the city Black vote across the suburbs as the 2020 map probably won't require 3 BVAP seats. Of course, this ignores that fact that the AA incumbents will lobby hard for a seat that is still safe for themselves, even though it lacks a AA majority.

Disagree however on the skew Yes, Obama over-preformed in 2008 and IL data sucks because of it. Obama in 2008 generally over-preformed across the state, and  this still happened in 2012 to a lesser extent. However, Clinton didn't over-preform in the Rep areas. The thing about 2016 and 2017 is that in other states, the areas where Trump was disliked are staying Democratic and rejecting a return to the right. Most people, for example, expect 2016 to be the last year were IL-10 rejected its PVI since the Kirk-Dold machine has lost its candidates. I don't see Il-06 surviving 2020 as a republican seat, though IL-14 most certainly will.
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« Reply #9 on: November 16, 2017, 02:47:19 PM »

Please note that Clinton somehow managed to improve on Obamas margin in Cook County, Illinois.
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muon2
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« Reply #10 on: November 16, 2017, 08:10:22 PM »

Part of an Illinois 13-3 Gerrymander. Here's the Downstate seats. 3R-2D. I didn't draw the rest of Chicagoland cuz I'm lazy, but I've seen it done in other maps and it complies with DRA. The other 11 Chicagoland districts would obviously be safe D. The two D seats in this map are 59% Obama 2008 (successor to Bustos's seat). It probably went for Clinton by about 8 points, and I made a point for it to capture every major city that she carried in the area. The other one is the Metro East-Springfield-Decatur-Champaign-Bloomington seat Obama 2008 carried with 60% that Clinton carried by about 11 points.



Edited to use the large map.

The practical problem in Chicagoland is that the PVIs don't accurately predict congressional results. Obama was a popular favorite son and overperformed traditional averages, which skews the PVI. This was clearly seen in the 2010 and 2014 off-year results. Trump was an unusually poor fit as well and that continues the skew.

In 2011 the Dem map was guided by DCCC trying to maximize seats, but still they drew D+7 or better. That left them with two Pub sinks: IL-6 and 14. In 2021 Dems might be able to reduce one of those, but it is unlikely they can reduce both without risking a Dummymander in the 2022 off year.

Not really. There's plenty of ways to draw 11 Chicagoland Safe D seats even with Obama's inflated numbers. I've seen proposed maps where all 11 get at least 60% Obama 2008 seats that are still VRA compliant. I'm not sure why people think it's so hard. Roskam would be a dead man walking and Hultgren completely out of a seat. To obliterate Roskam, you just have to draw a tendril into white liberal parts of Cook.

If Bill Foster and Tammy Duckworth could easily win under a tough 2014 climate, I'm sure Dems would have little problem holding all 11 even under the worst conditions absent a reverse AL-Sen.

Also, you're forgetting that Clinton's margins in Chicagoland were about comparable with Obama 2008. And there's no reason to think that Democrats will collapse from those suburban numbers anytime soon. At least not with Trump in office.

I'm not assuming that Trump is in office in 2021. I think it is just as likely that a Dem wins in 2020 and 2022 is a typical Dem off-year cycle. Look at the Pub gubernatorial numbers in 2010 and 2014 to see what I'd worry about as a Dem in IL.
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Dr. MB
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« Reply #11 on: November 16, 2017, 10:56:19 PM »

I was about 60% done with a 5-4 Missouri Democratic map that I had been working on for about an hour but then I accidentally clicked on something and when I went back it was gone...
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« Reply #12 on: November 19, 2017, 02:04:11 PM »

Part of an Illinois 13-3 Gerrymander. Here's the Downstate seats. 3R-2D. I didn't draw the rest of Chicagoland cuz I'm lazy, but I've seen it done in other maps and it complies with DRA. The other 11 Chicagoland districts would obviously be safe D. The two D seats in this map are 59% Obama 2008 (successor to Bustos's seat). It probably went for Clinton by about 8 points, and I made a point for it to capture every major city that she carried in the area. The other one is the Metro East-Springfield-Decatur-Champaign-Bloomington seat Obama 2008 carried with 60% that Clinton carried by about 11 points.



Edited to use the large map.
The AZ map was fine, but this makes the gerrymander the courts threw out in NC look like nothing. I don't know if there's any legal precedent for that in Illinois though. I do think all the greater Chicago districts can be democrat fairly easily. As for the Virginia map, doesn't the VRA require majority black districts? You might have to put Norfolk in with one of the two 40% black districts and leave VA 2 as swing to lean R. Still a solid 6D-4R-1 swing
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #13 on: November 19, 2017, 03:35:10 PM »
« Edited: November 19, 2017, 03:36:50 PM by Oryxslayer »

Part of an Illinois 13-3 Gerrymander. Here's the Downstate seats. 3R-2D. I didn't draw the rest of Chicagoland cuz I'm lazy, but I've seen it done in other maps and it complies with DRA. The other 11 Chicagoland districts would obviously be safe D. The two D seats in this map are 59% Obama 2008 (successor to Bustos's seat). It probably went for Clinton by about 8 points, and I made a point for it to capture every major city that she carried in the area. The other one is the Metro East-Springfield-Decatur-Champaign-Bloomington seat Obama 2008 carried with 60% that Clinton carried by about 11 points.

Edited to use the large map.
The AZ map was fine, but this makes the gerrymander the courts threw out in NC look like nothing. I don't know if there's any legal precedent for that in Illinois though. I do think all the greater Chicago districts can be democrat fairly easily. As for the Virginia map, doesn't the VRA require majority black districts? You might have to put Norfolk in with one of the two 40% black districts and leave VA 2 as swing to lean R. Still a solid 6D-4R-1 swing

Oh you bet there is a precedent, Madigan has his experience drawing tentacles. If there is some political thing that is corrupt, mean, or dishonest, Illinois Democrats have done it,

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Brittain33
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« Reply #14 on: November 19, 2017, 09:42:57 PM »

Oh you bet there is a precedent, Madigan has his experience drawing tentacles. If there is some political thing that is corrupt, mean, or dishonest, Illinois Democrats have done it,



I thought that round of redistricting favored Republicans, and those tentacles were to create a Democratic vote sink. That tentacle in another district running southward along the southeast border of the state was intended to grab Democratic incumbent David Phelps and stick him in a solid Republican district further north.
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muon2
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« Reply #15 on: November 19, 2017, 10:39:05 PM »

Oh you bet there is a precedent, Madigan has his experience drawing tentacles. If there is some political thing that is corrupt, mean, or dishonest, Illinois Democrats have done it,



I thought that round of redistricting favored Republicans, and those tentacles were to create a Democratic vote sink. That tentacle in another district running southward along the southeast border of the state was intended to grab Democratic incumbent David Phelps and stick him in a solid Republican district further north.

In 2001 the Dems controlled legislative redistricting by lottery. Congressional redistricting was a bipartisan gerrymander negotiated between Speaker Dennis Hastert and Dem Rep Bill Lipinski.
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Tartarus Sauce
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« Reply #16 on: November 20, 2017, 12:18:12 AM »

Part of an Illinois 13-3 Gerrymander. Here's the Downstate seats. 3R-2D. I didn't draw the rest of Chicagoland cuz I'm lazy, but I've seen it done in other maps and it complies with DRA. The other 11 Chicagoland districts would obviously be safe D. The two D seats in this map are 59% Obama 2008 (successor to Bustos's seat). It probably went for Clinton by about 8 points, and I made a point for it to capture every major city that she carried in the area. The other one is the Metro East-Springfield-Decatur-Champaign-Bloomington seat Obama 2008 carried with 60% that Clinton carried by about 11 points.



Edited to use the large map.

That's just pure evil.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #17 on: December 01, 2017, 12:00:46 AM »

Light 10D-2R New Jersey gerrymander:



Basically it unravels the current light-Republican gerrymander and is somewhat neater. The northern Monmouth County seat is barely D+ in my map, but the new 7th (the gray) is D+11 and can afford to swap quite a few towns to make both about D+5/6 ish. VRA-compliant, and NJ-2 is D+3.

I feel like I saw this on DKE recently. You over there now too?
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Dr. MB
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« Reply #18 on: December 14, 2017, 08:10:36 PM »


Here's a 3-district Mississippi D gerrymander.

Blue district: D+3
Red district: D+0.4
White district: R+30
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