Bosse's Democratic Gerrymander Maps

[muon2]

Part of an Illinois 13-3 Gerrymander. Here's the Downstate seats. 3R-2D. I didn't draw the rest of Chicagoland cuz I'm lazy, but I've seen it done in other maps and it complies with DRA. The other 11 Chicagoland districts would obviously be safe D. The two D seats in this map are 59% Obama 2008 (successor to Bustos's seat). It probably went for Clinton by about 8 points, and I made a point for it to capture every major city that she carried in the area. The other one is the Metro East-Springfield-Decatur-Champaign-Bloomington seat Obama 2008 carried with 60% that Clinton carried by about 11 points.



Edited to use the large map.

The practical problem in Chicagoland is that the PVIs don't accurately predict congressional results. Obama was a popular favorite son and overperformed traditional averages, which skews the PVI. This was clearly seen in the 2010 and 2014 off-year results. Trump was an unusually poor fit as well and that continues the skew.

In 2011 the Dem map was guided by DCCC trying to maximize seats, but still they drew D+7 or better. That left them with two Pub sinks: IL-6 and 14. In 2021 Dems might be able to reduce one of those, but it is unlikely they can reduce both without risking a Dummymander in the 2022 off year.

[muon2]

Part of an Illinois 13-3 Gerrymander. Here's the Downstate seats. 3R-2D. I didn't draw the rest of Chicagoland cuz I'm lazy, but I've seen it done in other maps and it complies with DRA. The other 11 Chicagoland districts would obviously be safe D. The two D seats in this map are 59% Obama 2008 (successor to Bustos's seat). It probably went for Clinton by about 8 points, and I made a point for it to capture every major city that she carried in the area. The other one is the Metro East-Springfield-Decatur-Champaign-Bloomington seat Obama 2008 carried with 60% that Clinton carried by about 11 points.



Edited to use the large map.

The practical problem in Chicagoland is that the PVIs don't accurately predict congressional results. Obama was a popular favorite son and overperformed traditional averages, which skews the PVI. This was clearly seen in the 2010 and 2014 off-year results. Trump was an unusually poor fit as well and that continues the skew.

In 2011 the Dem map was guided by DCCC trying to maximize seats, but still they drew D+7 or better. That left them with two Pub sinks: IL-6 and 14. In 2021 Dems might be able to reduce one of those, but it is unlikely they can reduce both without risking a Dummymander in the 2022 off year.

Not really. There's plenty of ways to draw 11 Chicagoland Safe D seats even with Obama's inflated numbers. I've seen proposed maps where all 11 get at least 60% Obama 2008 seats that are still VRA compliant. I'm not sure why people think it's so hard. Roskam would be a dead man walking and Hultgren completely out of a seat. To obliterate Roskam, you just have to draw a tendril into white liberal parts of Cook.

If Bill Foster and Tammy Duckworth could easily win under a tough 2014 climate, I'm sure Dems would have little problem holding all 11 even under the worst conditions absent a reverse AL-Sen.

Also, you're forgetting that Clinton's margins in Chicagoland were about comparable with Obama 2008. And there's no reason to think that Democrats will collapse from those suburban numbers anytime soon. At least not with Trump in office.

I'm not assuming that Trump is in office in 2021. I think it is just as likely that a Dem wins in 2020 and 2022 is a typical Dem off-year cycle. Look at the Pub gubernatorial numbers in 2010 and 2014 to see what I'd worry about as a Dem in IL.

[muon2]

Oh you bet there is a precedent, Madigan has his experience drawing tentacles. If there is some political thing that is corrupt, mean, or dishonest, Illinois Democrats have done it,

I thought that round of redistricting favored Republicans, and those tentacles were to create a Democratic vote sink. That tentacle in another district running southward along the southeast border of the state was intended to grab Democratic incumbent David Phelps and stick him in a solid Republican district further north.

In 2001 the Dems controlled legislative redistricting by lottery. Congressional redistricting was a bipartisan gerrymander negotiated between Speaker Dennis Hastert and Dem Rep Bill Lipinski.