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  AL-SEN Change Research DOUG +3
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Author Topic: AL-SEN Change Research DOUG +3  (Read 1681 times)
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« Reply #25 on: November 17, 2017, 10:11:39 pm »

There are a few details hidden in the cross-tabs of this poll that make me a bit leery of the numbers, despite the large sample size....

18.2% of the respondents are listed as having a Graduate degree (Actual Alabama numbers based on Census Data/ statisticalatlas.com are more like 8.3%)

32.6% are listed as having a College Degree (Actual Numbers If you lump Graduate Degree plus Bacherlors plus Associates numbers are more like 30.1%).

Now many the numbers have shifted over the past couple years in terms of College Degrees, entirely plausible as many older voters from an era where College was much rarer are passing away, combined with an increasing number of younger voters where at least some type of college coursework or at least an associates is increasingly common.

Normally I wouldn't pay that much attention to these types of crosstabs in smaller polls, because of the whole MOE issue, but if you have a 2k sample size that is 18% Graduate Students as the highest level of educational attainment, that alone will raise my eyebrows, in just about any state in the Union...

The 21% Non-Religious numbers seem a bit high for 'Bama, and the mainstream protestant vote appears to be over-represented compared to the evangelical religious affiliation (Many African-Americans also identify as evangelicals in many Southern States, although what that means can vary significantly in the extremely heterodox social culture of evangelicalism, especially in the "Deep South".

So, what we can ascertain from this poll is that Jones is performing extremely well among College Educated White Voters (Obviously an essential ingredient towards flipping 'Bama, since Jones will need to perform exceptionally well among this population in the White Metro 'Burbs of Huntsville, Mobile, Birmingham, and Montgomery....

Many of these are the places that initially Southern Whites moved to in large numbers during the '60s and '70s to avoid having their kids attend the same school as Black students, although obviously attitudes changed a bit, as their kids entered the 1980s, and their grandkids started to come of age....

I think we can likely ascertain based upon this poll that Doug Jones is doing very well, among a certain White Demographic in Alabama, which might enable him to flip places like Madison County, Mobile County, as well as do very well in traditionally Republican parts of Jefferson County (Birmingham), as well as Shelby County, and similar types of enclaves throughout Alabama....

What this poll doesn't tell us however is what is going on in heavily Republican parts of rural and small-town Alabama, where many voters might not be willing to countenance voting for a Democrat, but still have fundamental issues with the conduct of "their outsider from 'Bama"....

1.) What will the enthusiasm gap look like among heavily White Evangelical rural communities in terms of overall turnout, cross-over votes, and Strange WI votes?

2.) How enthusiastic are African-American voters in Alabama, that represent a significant chunk, if not an outright majority of the traditional Democratic Coalition in 'Bama since 1984, about supporting Jones that despite his awesome resume in terms of going after the White Supremacist Birmingham '63 church bombers from the Civil Rights era, in turning out in the same levels of support that they did for his campaign in '12 when Obama was on the ballot for reelection?

What this poll tells me, is that Jones is where he needs to be among a key sliver of the Alabama electorate.... White Educated Voters that backed Strange in the Republican Senate Primary.

These will need to be essential cross-over voters, in which case it will likely become a turnout and enthusiasm battle between Republican and Democratic base voter blocks....

One community that I neglected to mention, that I suspect might be pivotal come this December, is the White Catholic vote in 'Bama....

Although relatively small as an overall % of the statewide population, this is a community where perhaps we are likely to see the biggest swings compared to Trump '16 numbers in 'Bama, towards Doug Jones other than in College Educated White Republican parts of the five largest Metro Areas/ Cities within the state....

If this comes down to a narrow Dem Victory or 'Pub Win, we need to look carefully at various parts of Alabama that have a large Catholic/Cajun/French population, especially considering some of the interesting results we have seen from Louisiana in recent years.

Mobile and Baldwin County would be key to look at, with 10% of heavily Republican Bayou La Batre in Southern Mobile County having "French Ancestry", and various other parts of Cajun Country in the County also showing similar results....

In Baldwin County I woulk look at Fairhope and Elberta....

Still, the Catholic vote is extremely defuse within 'Bama, and on another thread posting precinct results for I-A College Football Cities, roamed around Mobile looking for other College Precincts and discovered Spring Hill College, the oldest Catholic college in the South and 5th oldest in the United States that in the '16 GE voted (76-21 Trump).

Now the school also defended itself against a convoy of KKK members for several days in a row, and was widely seen as a center of sedition and conspiracy for quite some time within many White 'Bama voters for many decades....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spring_Hill_College

I really wish I knew what words were being spoken on the Sunday Mass after the revelations came out about Moore.... I don't think he's getting the same types of lovin' and redemption type speeches that might be coming from some corner churches and megachurches alike.

Meanwhile, obviously the key variable is how will White Southern Baptists vote, considering that in an extremely splintered evangelical community in 'Bama, it is still the largest denomination by far....

Who knows what good Godly people of religious faith will do here, when it comes to what they might consider to be a choice between voting for a Pro-Choice Democrat to represent 'Bama (Key emphasis pro-choice) versus the creepy crawly sexual predator troll trawling Gadsen, 'Bama back in the '80s?

http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-alabama-baptists-20171115-story.html

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