Would you buy or sell on PredictIt’s odds of these candidates running?

[Mr. Morden]

PredictIt’s current probabilities for these potential candidates running for president in 2020 (that is, formally filing the paperwork for a presidential campaign, not just doing pseudo-campaign events in early primary states years in advance, as many of them are already doing):

Cory Booker 75%
Andrew Cuomo 73%
Kamala Harris 70%
Kirsten Gillibrand 65%
John Kasich 62%
Elizabeth Warren 60%
Joe Biden 49%
Bernie Sanders 46%
Amy Klobuchar 43%
Mike Pence 39%
Mark Cuban 34%
Ted Cruz 28%
The Rock 23%
Mark Zuckerberg 21%
Tim Kaine 18%
Paul Ryan 14%
Joe Scarborough 10%

Would you buy or sell each of these at the listed price?

[IceSpear]

Buy Harris, Biden, Warren, and Sanders. Sell the rest.

[UncleSam]

Buy Harris, Gillibrand, Sanders, Biden, Warren. Sell hard AF on Kasich at 62%. Sell all the Republicans and push on Booker. Cuomo at 70%+ is an easy sell.

[Mr. Morden]

Honestly, at those prices, I'd probably either push or sell on everyone.  Sell on all the Republicans, Indies, and non-politicians like Zuckerberg.  Sell on Biden, Sanders, and probably Cuomo.  All of the remaining Dems then are close enough to having reasonable prices that it's not worth betting on them.  E.g., I think in my personal odds a few weeks ago, I gave Klobuchar a 45% chance of running.  But 43% vs. 45% is a tiny enough difference to not worry about.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

Cory Booker 75% Sell
Andrew Cuomo 73% Sell
Kamala Harris 70%Hold
Kirsten Gillibrand 65%Hold
John Kasich 62% Sell
Elizabeth Warren 60%Hold
Joe Biden 49% Sell
Bernie Sanders 46% Sell
Amy Klobuchar 43%Hold
Mike Pence 39% Sell
Mark Cuban 34% Sell
Ted Cruz 28% Sell
The Rock 23% Sell
Mark Zuckerberg 21% Sell
Tim Kaine 18% Sell
Paul Ryan 14% Sell
Joe Scarborough 10% Sell

These pretty drastically overrate a lot of candidates and, of this list, there are none that I'd buy.

[NewYorkExpress]

I'd buy Cuomo, Booker and Kasich and sell all other Republicans, and Sanders.

I'd Hold everyone else...though I think Warren is a touch too low, there are plenty of scenarios where both she and Sanders don't run.

[Beet]

Honestly, at those prices, I'd probably either push or sell on everyone.  Sell on all the Republicans, Indies, and non-politicians like Zuckerberg.  Sell on Biden, Sanders, and probably Cuomo.  All of the remaining Dems then are close enough to having reasonable prices that it's not worth betting on them.  E.g., I think in my personal odds a few weeks ago, I gave Klobuchar a 45% chance of running.  But 43% vs. 45% is a tiny enough difference to not worry about.

Yeah, don’t forget that if you make money on PredictIt, you have to pay income tax, whereas if you lose money there, you get nothing. Plus, there’s the 10% profit fee and 5% withdrawal fee. Plus, the quoted prices are not what you can get- in practice you can only buy at the ask price, which is usually lower than the trade price and only goes down the more volume you want. Finally there’s the opportunity cost of having your money tied up in PredictIt for years when they could be going to another number of investments. So unless you see something massively mispriced, it makes no more sense than walking into a Vegas casino where the only guaranteed winner is the House and trying to outsmart the dealer.

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

I'd bet against any of the republicans running at those odds since as of right now we have to presume Trump runs again. I'd also bet on Warren running. The rest I'd leave alone.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Cory Booker 75%-Buy
Andrew Cuomo 73%-Buy
Kamala Harris 70%-Sell
Kirsten Gillibrand 65%-Buy
John Kasich 62%-Sell
Elizabeth Warren 60%-Buy
Joe Biden 49%-Sell
Bernie Sanders 46%-Sell
Amy Klobuchar 43%-Buy
Mike Pence 39%-Buy
Mark Cuban 34%-Sell
Ted Cruz 28%-Buy
The Rock 23%-Sell
Mark Zuckerberg 21%-Buy
Tim Kaine 18%-Buy
Paul Ryan 14%-Buy
Joe Scarborough 10%-Sell