What does a Doug Jones victory look like?

[Thunderbird is the word]

It's been so long since Democrats have won a statewide race in Alabama that it seems difficult to tell what a Democrat's map to victory would actually look like. Obviously Jones has to have high turnout and run up the score in the black belt but which of the white majority areas does he have to pick off to win?

[Young Conservative]

To win, Jones needs Mobile county, Tuscaloosa county, and Madison county. He also needs a high double digit win in Jefferson.

[bagelman]

Courtesy of ag on AAD.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I don't think such a swing would be uniform.  Remember, Alabama is so racially polarized that pretty much any demographic of whites voted more than 80% GOP in 2016, outside of the urban core of Birmingham.  Judging from the FOX poll, Moore is going to most underperform with usually Republican (in Alabama) educated/well-off whites and young whites.  This suggests that a Jones victory path would include Lee County and get large margins out of Jefferson and Tuscaloosa Counties.  Shelby County (Alabama's WOW Counties-like place) may even be very close in a Jones victory.