Obligatory Franken Potential Replacement Poll

[Rhenna]

I hope for Ellison, but Lori Swanson is a very safe choice.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It's not going to be Ellison.

The problem with him isn't so much that he's a Muslim, but that he had a lot of dodgy connections from that prior to his political career. Nation of Islam, CAIR, things like that. He also had some legal problems which seem minor but are kind of an issue for a Senator, for example a newspaper discovered he had his driver's license suspended multiple times for things like unpaid parking tickets and when asked how many times he had his license suspended he replied that he doesn't know because he lost count.

How bad is this stuff? Well let me put it this way: even I wouldn't have voted for him in 2006 if I lived in the district at the time (I lived in MN-01 then). I would've supported one of his primary opponents and in the general would've voted for the Independence Party candidate, who was actually a former Democrat and pretty liberal. It appears lots of voters had the same idea in 2006:
Keith Ellison (DFL), 56%
Alan Fine (R), 21%
Tammy Lee (I), 21%
Jay Pond (G), 2%

Also here was the DFL primary:
Keith Ellison (DFL), 41%
Mike Erlandson (DFL), 31%
Ember Reichgott Junge (DFL), 21%
Paul Ostrow (DFL), 5%

Now that doesn't look particularly terrible, but winning 41% in an effective three-way race against two not all that strong candidates (Erlandson was the former chief of staff of the outgoing incumbent and had never held elected office before, it was basically an attempt to gift him the seat, Junge was a former State Senator from the outer suburban part of the district), especially with the DFL endorsement (which isn't just symbolic, it gives access to all sorts of voter targeting and fundraising helping databases) isn't particularly strong.

Now do I believe that Ellison is the same person he was prior to getting involved in politics? No. He clearly reformed and I warmed up to him pretty quickly after taking office. In 2008 I voted for him both in the general AND primary where he had a nominal joke opponent. I've voted for him twice ever since. But once you leave a safe district, this stuff becomes an issue again.

Furthermore he underperforms in MN-05. These were the results last year:
Republican      Frank Nelson Drake   80660   22.29%   
Democratic-Farmer-Labor      Keith Ellison   249964   69.07%   
Legal Marijuana Now      Dennis Schuller   30759   8.50%   
WRITE-IN**      WRITE-IN**   499   0.14%

and Presidential-wise the district voted:
Republican      Donald J. Trump and Michael R. Pence   68535   18.30%   
Democratic-Farmer-Labor      Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine   273402   72.99%   
Constitution Party      Darrell Castle and Scott Bradley   775   0.21%   
Legal Marijuana Now      Dan R. Vacek and Mark Elworth, Jr.   1604   0.43%   
Socialist Workers Party      Alyson Kennedy and Osborne Hart   350   0.09%   
Green Party      Jill Stein and Howie Hawkins   7522   2.01%   
American Delta Party      "Rocky" Roque De La Fuente and Michael Steinberg   163   0.04%   
Independence      Evan McMullin and Nathan Johnson   5960   1.59%   
Libertarian Party      Gary Johnson and William Weld   12558   3.35%   
Write-In      WRITE-IN**   3691   0.99%

and the suburbs had plenty of precincts like this:

EDINA P-03
Republican      Donald J. Trump and Michael R. Pence   638   31.09%   
Democratic-Farmer-Labor      Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine   1211   59.02%   
Constitution Party      Darrell Castle and Scott Bradley   2   0.10%   
Legal Marijuana Now      Dan R. Vacek and Mark Elworth, Jr.   2   0.10%   
Socialist Workers Party      Alyson Kennedy and Osborne Hart   1   0.05%   
Green Party      Jill Stein and Howie Hawkins   10   0.49%   
American Delta Party      "Rocky" Roque De La Fuente and Michael Steinberg   0   0.00%   
Independence      Evan McMullin and Nathan Johnson   46   2.24%   
Libertarian Party      Gary Johnson and William Weld   98   4.78%   
Write-In      WRITE-IN**   44   2.14%   

Republican      Frank Nelson Drake   1017   50.32%   
Democratic-Farmer-Labor      Keith Ellison   953   47.15%   
Legal Marijuana Now      Dennis Schuller   50   2.47%   
WRITE-IN**      WRITE-IN**   1   0.05%

Now to be fair, most of those suburban precincts are ones that voted for Romney and had a nasty swing against Trump, but the question needs to be asked, if Ellison can't match Hillary's performance there, where does he make it up? For the reasons above, it's pretty silly to expect him to be the guy who wins back rural Minnesota. And no, he's not going to just because he endorsed Sanders, aside from that virtually no voters aside from political nerds on internet discussion forums even cares about who endorsed who in a presidential primary there were next to no Sanders-Trump voters anywhere in Minnesota.

And beyond all that, I'd be surprised if he even wants it. This is a guy who wanted to be DNC Chair, is taking his current Deputy Chair position quite seriously, and has a safe seat for life even if that doesn't work out. He's going to play a role in the party to come, just not as a Senator.

Dayton will either appoint a seatwarmer or Swanson if Franken resigns. And frankly I doubt he will.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Swanson. I’d have serious concerns about Ellison’s appeal statewide and Otto is a nonstarter in the Iron Range.

Uh, why? She's never had issues there before.





Now granted that's just a State Auditor election and not too high profile, but I can't think of anything notable about her that would cause her to be significantly weak there. I'd say she's quite unlikely to accept such a position because she wants to be Governor and is the current frontrunner.

[BuckeyeNut]

If you think CAIR is a "dodgy" organization, you've succumbed to Islamophobic fear mongering.

Nation of Islam, on the other hand...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If you think CAIR is a "dodgy" organization, you've succumbed to Islamophobic fear mongering.

Nation of Islam, on the other hand...

It wasn't just CAIR, it was certainly individuals in CAIR that were openly pro-Hamas.

No one in Minneapolis cares about this anymore, but wait till someone's running statewide.

Also there were maybe 5 Sanders-Trump voters in Minnesota, just as there would've been about that number of Hillary-Trump voters had Sanders won the nomination. Anyone bringing up the caucus results clearly doesn't understand how caucuses work in Minnesota or the sort of people who vote in them.

For example in heavily Trump swinging Aitkin county, Hillary received 3,134 votes in the general election. Sanders received...180 votes in the DFL caucus. In fact there was 349 votes total...about 11% of the total number of votes Hillary received. And furthermore Hillary actually did better in most of rural Minnesota in the caucus than she did statewide. This is all blathering #analysis about a non-existent "Bernie wing" of the party.

[Kingpoleon]

If I were Dayton and Franken leaves office, I would probably appoint someone old enough to leave office in 2020. Tim Penny(if he’s a Democrat now) or Mike Freeman wouldn’t be awful for that purpose.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If I were Dayton and Franken leaves office, I would probably appoint someone old enough to leave office in 2020. Tim Penny(if he’s a Democrat now) or Mike Freeman wouldn’t be awful for that purpose.

Penny endorsed McCain in 2008 and fell off the radar. He's not a Democrat today. Freeman is going to run for reelection as Hennepin County Attorney. Why would he give that office up for a brief seatwarmer gig? Also neither one is really that old by politician standards.

If Dayton does want to appoint someone old who isn't going to run as a seatwarmer, the most obvious choice would be his former Lt. Gov. Yvonne Prettner Solon who stood down in 2014.

[BuckeyeNut]

If you think CAIR is a "dodgy" organization, you've succumbed to Islamophobic fear mongering.

Nation of Islam, on the other hand...

It wasn't just CAIR, it was certainly individuals in CAIR that were openly pro-Hamas.

No one in Minneapolis cares about this anymore, but wait till someone's running statewide.

Also there were maybe 5 Sanders-Trump voters in Minnesota, just as there would've been about that number of Hillary-Trump voters had Sanders won the nomination. Anyone bringing up the caucus results clearly doesn't understand how caucuses work in Minnesota or the sort of people who vote in them.

For example in heavily Trump swinging Aitkin county, Hillary received 3,134 votes in the general election. Sanders received...180 votes in the DFL caucus. In fact there was 349 votes total...about 11% of the total number of votes Hillary received. And furthermore Hillary actually did better in most of rural Minnesota in the caucus than she did statewide. This is all blathering #analysis about a non-existent "Bernie wing" of the party.

No one in Minneapolis may care anymore, but they frankly never should have. I have family in the Twin Cities, and I find it absurd it was ever a problem with the so-called progressives there.

And I think Rick Nolan would tell you otherwise, especially since caucuses are non-reflective bull sh*t.

[Young Conservative]

Imagine if they actually appointed Peterson. That would be great.

[junior chįmp]

If Frankenstein goes....they should appoint that female Somali Muslim state legislator...just to see GOP heads explode

[BuckeyeNut]

If Frankenstein goes....they should appoint that female Somali Muslim state legislator...just to see GOP heads explode

She's probably, actually, unelectable statewide. Though if you take Keith out of Congress, she'd be perfect for his seat.

[Lechasseur]

Imagine if they actually appointed Peterson. That would be great.

Agreed but it won't happen, I think Swanson would get the nod

[junior chįmp]

If Frankenstein goes....they should appoint that female Somali Muslim state legislator...just to see GOP heads explode

She's probably, actually, unelectable statewide. Though if you take Keith out of Congress, she'd be perfect for his seat.

I would normally agree with your take but I think I'm todays current political environment....people are willing to vote for those they think Trump will harm the most. For example....see Virginia's HoD elections

[BuckeyeNut]

If Frankenstein goes....they should appoint that female Somali Muslim state legislator...just to see GOP heads explode

She's probably, actually, unelectable statewide. Though if you take Keith out of Congress, she'd be perfect for his seat.

I would normally agree with your take but I think I'm todays current political environment....people are willing to vote for those they think Trump will harm the most. For example....see Virginia's HoD elections

There's a major difference between a state legislative election, a congressional election, and a statewide election.

[junior chįmp]

If Frankenstein goes....they should appoint that female Somali Muslim state legislator...just to see GOP heads explode

She's probably, actually, unelectable statewide. Though if you take Keith out of Congress, she'd be perfect for his seat.

I would normally agree with your take but I think I'm todays current political environment....people are willing to vote for those they think Trump will harm the most. For example....see Virginia's HoD elections

There's a major difference between a state legislative election, a congressional election, and a statewide election.

I don't think there is but 2018 will show us.

[Figueira]

A woman.

Since there's a risk of Minnesota moving far to the right in the future, someone who can hold the seat for a long time would be great. Swanson seems like the best of these options but maybe if there's a woman in a high-profile position who's in her thirties or early forties and is fairly liberal and uncontroversial, that would be great.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If you think CAIR is a "dodgy" organization, you've succumbed to Islamophobic fear mongering.

Nation of Islam, on the other hand...

It wasn't just CAIR, it was certainly individuals in CAIR that were openly pro-Hamas.

No one in Minneapolis cares about this anymore, but wait till someone's running statewide.

Also there were maybe 5 Sanders-Trump voters in Minnesota, just as there would've been about that number of Hillary-Trump voters had Sanders won the nomination. Anyone bringing up the caucus results clearly doesn't understand how caucuses work in Minnesota or the sort of people who vote in them.

For example in heavily Trump swinging Aitkin county, Hillary received 3,134 votes in the general election. Sanders received...180 votes in the DFL caucus. In fact there was 349 votes total...about 11% of the total number of votes Hillary received. And furthermore Hillary actually did better in most of rural Minnesota in the caucus than she did statewide. This is all blathering #analysis about a non-existent "Bernie wing" of the party.

No one in Minneapolis may care anymore, but they frankly never should have. I have family in the Twin Cities, and I find it absurd it was ever a problem with the so-called progressives there.

And I think Rick Nolan would tell you otherwise, especially since caucuses are non-reflective bull sh*t.

Nolan was just narrowly re-elected over a terrible opponent. His Sanders endorsement had nothing to do with it.

Minnesota caucuses are low turnout affairs where only highly engaged voters and activist types show up. Sanders would've won Minnesota, and probably by a larger margin than Hillary, but not because of the caucus results or because tons of his supporters voted Trump in,the general election. And Sanders underperformed his state numbers in the areas with the biggest swings to Trump anyway.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I love Ellison but he is a bad candidate. They would actually be able to call him a socialist muslim and they would be telling the truth lol!

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

But tbh I think Franken should stay.

[BuckeyeNut]

If Frankenstein goes....they should appoint that female Somali Muslim state legislator...just to see GOP heads explode

She's probably, actually, unelectable statewide. Though if you take Keith out of Congress, she'd be perfect for his seat.

I would normally agree with your take but I think I'm todays current political environment....people are willing to vote for those they think Trump will harm the most. For example....see Virginia's HoD elections

There's a major difference between a state legislative election, a congressional election, and a statewide election.

I don't think there is but 2018 will show us.

You think damn near objectively wrong.

If you think CAIR is a "dodgy" organization, you've succumbed to Islamophobic fear mongering.

Nation of Islam, on the other hand...

It wasn't just CAIR, it was certainly individuals in CAIR that were openly pro-Hamas.

No one in Minneapolis cares about this anymore, but wait till someone's running statewide.

Also there were maybe 5 Sanders-Trump voters in Minnesota, just as there would've been about that number of Hillary-Trump voters had Sanders won the nomination. Anyone bringing up the caucus results clearly doesn't understand how caucuses work in Minnesota or the sort of people who vote in them.

For example in heavily Trump swinging Aitkin county, Hillary received 3,134 votes in the general election. Sanders received...180 votes in the DFL caucus. In fact there was 349 votes total...about 11% of the total number of votes Hillary received. And furthermore Hillary actually did better in most of rural Minnesota in the caucus than she did statewide. This is all blathering #analysis about a non-existent "Bernie wing" of the party.

No one in Minneapolis may care anymore, but they frankly never should have. I have family in the Twin Cities, and I find it absurd it was ever a problem with the so-called progressives there.

And I think Rick Nolan would tell you otherwise, especially since caucuses are non-reflective bull sh*t.

Nolan was just narrowly re-elected over a terrible opponent. His Sanders endorsement had nothing to do with it.

Minnesota caucuses are low turnout affairs where only highly engaged voters and activist types show up. Sanders would've won Minnesota, and probably by a larger margin than Hillary, but not because of the caucus results or because tons of his supporters voted Trump in, the general election. And Sanders underperformed his state numbers in the areas with the biggest swings to Trump anyway.

There's no way to know, but my strong suspicion is Nolan would have won a much healthier margin with Sanders at the top of the ticket, as Trump wouldn't have won the 8th by 15% against Sanders.

There is a certain breed of Democrat in the DFL than can hold the very conservative, rural North, and they lose when turnout is down. It's frankly miraculous Nolan held on in '14, as turnout plummeted to just over 37%, and Oberstar went out as the longest-serving Minnesotan in Congress in '10 when turnout went down to 42%.

[henster]

Ellison has never won statewide why would he get picked over someone who has?

[Hydera]

Ellison has never won statewide why would he get picked over someone who has?

People care too much about "overtures towards the Bernie wing". If Keith Ellison is the senate candidate than their doing to find dirt about him, not even mentioning the statements he already made in the past that will surely made the race pretty close in 2020.


Besides i doubt the Bernie wing is as active as people believe it to be and even care about the Minnesota senate seat in the long one and giving them a Senate seat that would become vulnerable because of Keith Ellison's past statements would be dangerous.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If Frankenstein goes....they should appoint that female Somali Muslim state legislator...just to see GOP heads explode

She's probably, actually, unelectable statewide. Though if you take Keith out of Congress, she'd be perfect for his seat.

I would normally agree with your take but I think I'm todays current political environment....people are willing to vote for those they think Trump will harm the most. For example....see Virginia's HoD elections

There's a major difference between a state legislative election, a congressional election, and a statewide election.

I don't think there is but 2018 will show us.

You think damn near objectively wrong.

If you think CAIR is a "dodgy" organization, you've succumbed to Islamophobic fear mongering.

Nation of Islam, on the other hand...

It wasn't just CAIR, it was certainly individuals in CAIR that were openly pro-Hamas.

No one in Minneapolis cares about this anymore, but wait till someone's running statewide.

Also there were maybe 5 Sanders-Trump voters in Minnesota, just as there would've been about that number of Hillary-Trump voters had Sanders won the nomination. Anyone bringing up the caucus results clearly doesn't understand how caucuses work in Minnesota or the sort of people who vote in them.

For example in heavily Trump swinging Aitkin county, Hillary received 3,134 votes in the general election. Sanders received...180 votes in the DFL caucus. In fact there was 349 votes total...about 11% of the total number of votes Hillary received. And furthermore Hillary actually did better in most of rural Minnesota in the caucus than she did statewide. This is all blathering #analysis about a non-existent "Bernie wing" of the party.

No one in Minneapolis may care anymore, but they frankly never should have. I have family in the Twin Cities, and I find it absurd it was ever a problem with the so-called progressives there.

And I think Rick Nolan would tell you otherwise, especially since caucuses are non-reflective bull sh*t.

Nolan was just narrowly re-elected over a terrible opponent. His Sanders endorsement had nothing to do with it.

Minnesota caucuses are low turnout affairs where only highly engaged voters and activist types show up. Sanders would've won Minnesota, and probably by a larger margin than Hillary, but not because of the caucus results or because tons of his supporters voted Trump in, the general election. And Sanders underperformed his state numbers in the areas with the biggest swings to Trump anyway.

There's no way to know, but my strong suspicion is Nolan would have won a much healthier margin with Sanders at the top of the ticket, as Trump wouldn't have won the 8th by 15% against Sanders.

There is a certain breed of Democrat in the DFL than can hold the very conservative, rural North, and they lose when turnout is down. It's frankly miraculous Nolan held on in '14, as turnout plummeted to just over 37%, and Oberstar went out as the longest-serving Minnesotan in Congress in '10 when turnout went down to 42%.

I'm not disputing Bernie would've done better in that district or that Nolan would've won by a wider margin. I'm saying that the caucus results are not the primary indicator of that, and that Ellison is not Bernie. Your comment about the caucus results was almost a complete non-sequitur.

Yes there is a certain breed of Democrat that can compete in that area (though describing it as "very conservative" is not exactly accurate.) Ellison is not that Democrat.

[ursulahx]

Is there a thread discussing Franken's future? I don't want to derail this one.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If Frankenstein goes....they should appoint that female Somali Muslim state legislator...just to see GOP heads explode

So someone should be appointed who has not even served a full term in the state legislature, represents 1/134 of the state in a titanium safe seat over candidates with more qualifications and evidence of being able to compete statewide because...?

Oh to "see GOP heads explode". So what's your opinion of "LOLZ Milo is a FF and Trump was SOOO AWESOME to pardon Joe Arpaio because IT SO TRIGGERS THE LIBTARDS LOLZ"