AL-Fox News: DOUG +8

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Stop teasing me, polls!

What if they're not teasing you?

[Shadows]

Among voters under age 45, Jones has a 31-point lead, 61 percent to 30 percent. Jones wins 91 percent of Democratic voters, while Moore is at 78 percent among Republicans. Only 3 percent of Democrats say they will vote for Moore, but about 13 percent of Republicans say they will vote for Jones. Jones has a wide advantage among women, 58 percent to 32 percent. Moore has only a slight edge with voters 45 and older, 48 percent to 44 percent.

Moore has a 19-point lead among white voters, 56 percent to 37 percent. Jones is competitive among white voters with a college degree — Moore leads by just 4 points among them — but Moore has a 64 percent to 29 percent lead among white voters without college degrees. Among white voters who identify as evangelical Christians, Moore leads, 73 percent to 20 percent. Nearly three-quarters of likely Moore voters, 74 percent, say they don’t believe the allegations against him; only 7 percent of Moore voters believe the allegations. Among likely Jones voters, 64 believe the allegations against Moore, and 10 percent do not.

https://www.politico.com/story/2017/11/16/roy-moore-doug-jones-alabama-poll-245558

Jones is doing well among young voters, women, African Americans, Democratic voters, running up strong margins. Along with that you add Independents & some college educated white folks.

Moore is still doing amazing with evangelicals & poorly educated white folks (Still winning the white vote overall !!!!). Most of his supporters don't even believe the allegations.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Among voters under age 45, Jones has a 31-point lead, 61 percent to 30 percent. Jones wins 91 percent of Democratic voters, while Moore is at 78 percent among Republicans. Only 3 percent of Democrats say they will vote for Moore, but about 13 percent of Republicans say they will vote for Jones. Jones has a wide advantage among women, 58 percent to 32 percent. Moore has only a slight edge with voters 45 and older, 48 percent to 44 percent.

Moore has a 19-point lead among white voters, 56 percent to 37 percent. Jones is competitive among white voters with a college degree — Moore leads by just 4 points among them — but Moore has a 64 percent to 29 percent lead among white voters without college degrees. Among white voters who identify as evangelical Christians, Moore leads, 73 percent to 20 percent. Nearly three-quarters of likely Moore voters, 74 percent, say they don’t believe the allegations against him; only 7 percent of Moore voters believe the allegations. Among likely Jones voters, 64 believe the allegations against Moore, and 10 percent do not.

https://www.politico.com/story/2017/11/16/roy-moore-doug-jones-alabama-poll-245558

Jones is doing well among young voters, women, African Americans, Democratic voters, running up strong margins. Along with that you add Independents & some college educated white folks.

Moore is still doing amazing with evangelicals & poorly educated white folks (Still winning the white vote overall !!!!). Most of his supporters don't even believe the allegations.

So we could be looking at Jones putting together another Northam coalition?

[Shadows]

Among voters under age 45, Jones has a 31-point lead, 61 percent to 30 percent. Jones wins 91 percent of Democratic voters, while Moore is at 78 percent among Republicans. Only 3 percent of Democrats say they will vote for Moore, but about 13 percent of Republicans say they will vote for Jones. Jones has a wide advantage among women, 58 percent to 32 percent. Moore has only a slight edge with voters 45 and older, 48 percent to 44 percent.

Moore has a 19-point lead among white voters, 56 percent to 37 percent. Jones is competitive among white voters with a college degree — Moore leads by just 4 points among them — but Moore has a 64 percent to 29 percent lead among white voters without college degrees. Among white voters who identify as evangelical Christians, Moore leads, 73 percent to 20 percent. Nearly three-quarters of likely Moore voters, 74 percent, say they don’t believe the allegations against him; only 7 percent of Moore voters believe the allegations. Among likely Jones voters, 64 believe the allegations against Moore, and 10 percent do not.

https://www.politico.com/story/2017/11/16/roy-moore-doug-jones-alabama-poll-245558

Jones is doing well among young voters, women, African Americans, Democratic voters, running up strong margins. Along with that you add Independents & some college educated white folks.

Moore is still doing amazing with evangelicals & poorly educated white folks (Still winning the white vote overall !!!!). Most of his supporters don't even believe the allegations.

So we could be looking at Jones putting together another Northam coalition?

Northam coalition? Lol. I would say it is the Wulfric coalition. Put any random reasonable bloke with a D & he will put this coalition. It could actually be bigger IMO. Not much of a cross-over effect so far.

Women & Young people & educated folks driving the numbers. The numbers with evangelicals are disappointing.

[heatcharger]

What normal American says the word 'bloke'? Why don't you have an avatar, Shadows?

[Doimper]

What normal American says the word 'bloke'? Why don't you have an avatar, Shadows?

Hello, fellow American person bloke. I vote for Bernard Sanders for reasons of patriotic duty to country. I eat cheesyburger everyday and pilot glorious American vehicle to protest President with comrades.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Among voters under age 45, Jones has a 31-point lead, 61 percent to 30 percent. Jones wins 91 percent of Democratic voters, while Moore is at 78 percent among Republicans. Only 3 percent of Democrats say they will vote for Moore, but about 13 percent of Republicans say they will vote for Jones. Jones has a wide advantage among women, 58 percent to 32 percent. Moore has only a slight edge with voters 45 and older, 48 percent to 44 percent.

Moore has a 19-point lead among white voters, 56 percent to 37 percent. Jones is competitive among white voters with a college degree — Moore leads by just 4 points among them

THE SOLID DEM SOUTH SHALL RISE AGAIN, Mr. Shadows!

If this was Mississippi, Jones would be almost at 60% with these numbers. Biggest variable would be Black turnout to determine whether it is 55% or 60%.

[JA]

I literally bet money on Alabamans being deplorable. I'm so conflicted.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

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D+35 Differential between those under 45 relative to those over 45. I would point out that Griffin found similar differentials in 2014 exit polling in GA, TX, MS and SC.

Young white Southerners ARE NOT Republican enough to keep the GOP above water. Generational change will pull the top line white vote down and these states will flip. Alabama might take the longest of that group to flip though. This is not the suburban massacre like in Virginia (which was mixture of natural generation change and in migration), though it certainly will manifest in the suburbs. This is native generational change against the back drop of an immovable object, the Democratic Vote among African Americans.

[KingSweden]

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D+35 Differential between those under 45 relative to those over 45. I would point out that Griffin found similar differentials in 2014 exit polling in GA, TX, MS and SC.

Young white Southerners ARE NOT Republican enough to keep the GOP above water. Generational change will pull the top line white vote down and these states will flip. Alabama might take the longest of that group to flip though. This is not the suburban massacre like in Virginia (which was mixture of natural generation change and in migration), though it certainly will manifest in the suburbs. This is native generational change against the back drop of an immovable object, the Democratic Vote among African Americans.

I wonder if the same holds true in the Rust Belt States Trump flipped.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

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D+35 Differential between those under 45 relative to those over 45. I would point out that Griffin found similar differentials in 2014 exit polling in GA, TX, MS and SC.

Young white Southerners ARE NOT Republican enough to keep the GOP above water. Generational change will pull the top line white vote down and these states will flip. Alabama might take the longest of that group to flip though. This is not the suburban massacre like in Virginia (which was mixture of natural generation change and in migration), though it certainly will manifest in the suburbs. This is native generational change against the back drop of an immovable object, the Democratic Vote among African Americans.

I wonder if the same holds true in the Rust Belt States Trump flipped.

Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota all had reverse age gaps in 2016 at the presidential level.

Southern Senate races 18-29 vote in 2016:
SC: Scott +10
GA: Barksdale +5
KY: Paul +14
NC: Ross +16

Compared to Rust Belt:
WI: Johnson +3
PA: McGinty +10
OH: TIE

[100% pro-life no matter what]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

D+35 Differential between those under 45 relative to those over 45. I would point out that Griffin found similar differentials in 2014 exit polling in GA, TX, MS and SC.

Young white Southerners ARE NOT Republican enough to keep the GOP above water. Generational change will pull the top line white vote down and these states will flip. Alabama might take the longest of that group to flip though. This is not the suburban massacre like in Virginia (which was mixture of natural generation change and in migration), though it certainly will manifest in the suburbs. This is native generational change against the back drop of an immovable object, the Democratic Vote among African Americans.

The assumption there is that people do not get more conservative as they age.  I would say that, while there are more conservative and more liberal generations, all generations become somewhat more Republican with age.  Also, Alabama's electorate isn't significantly less white at younger ages (unlike most other places), and the other poll with Jones up suggested that Trump actually won 18-24s in Alabama by more than he won the state as a whole, but that there are a huge number of Trump-->Jones or Trump --> Undecided/Not Voting young Alabamians.

[KingSweden]

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D+35 Differential between those under 45 relative to those over 45. I would point out that Griffin found similar differentials in 2014 exit polling in GA, TX, MS and SC.

Young white Southerners ARE NOT Republican enough to keep the GOP above water. Generational change will pull the top line white vote down and these states will flip. Alabama might take the longest of that group to flip though. This is not the suburban massacre like in Virginia (which was mixture of natural generation change and in migration), though it certainly will manifest in the suburbs. This is native generational change against the back drop of an immovable object, the Democratic Vote among African Americans.

The assumption there is that people do not get more conservative as they age.  I would say that, while there are more conservative and more liberal generations, all generations become somewhat more Republican with age.  Also, Alabama's electorate isn't significantly less white at younger ages (unlike most other places), and the other poll with Jones up suggested that Trump actually won 18-24s in Alabama by more than he won the state as a whole, but that there are a huge number of Trump-->Jones or Trump --> Undecided/Not Voting young Alabamians.

That should be no surprise - Moore’s appeal is definitely generational

[Hydera]

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D+35 Differential between those under 45 relative to those over 45. I would point out that Griffin found similar differentials in 2014 exit polling in GA, TX, MS and SC.

Young white Southerners ARE NOT Republican enough to keep the GOP above water. Generational change will pull the top line white vote down and these states will flip. Alabama might take the longest of that group to flip though. This is not the suburban massacre like in Virginia (which was mixture of natural generation change and in migration), though it certainly will manifest in the suburbs. This is native generational change against the back drop of an immovable object, the Democratic Vote among African Americans.

The assumption there is that people do not get more conservative as they age.  I would say that, while there are more conservative and more liberal generations, all generations become somewhat more Republican with age.  Also, Alabama's electorate isn't significantly less white at younger ages (unlike most other places), and the other poll with Jones up suggested that Trump actually won 18-24s in Alabama by more than he won the state as a whole, but that there are a huge number of Trump-->Jones or Trump --> Undecided/Not Voting young Alabamians.

That should be no surprise - Moore’s appeal is definitely generational

Older voters either dont care and are solid republicans and/or think that it was the norm during their time so they dont care.

[Xing]

Stop teasing me, polls!

What if they're not teasing you?

Then, as I said on another thread, I'll happily eat crow. Until then, though, I'm not buying it.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

To be fair, I wouldn't really look too far into the 18-29 year old vote in most of these polls. Young people don't really turn out in offyear elections, and the ones that do this year will probably be a lot more democratic than young people as a whole.

Also low sample size for this group in polls.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

To be fair, I wouldn't really look too far into the 18-29 year old vote in most of these polls. Young people don't really turn out in offyear elections, and the ones that do this year will probably be a lot more democratic than young people as a whole.

Also low sample size for this group in polls.

Kind of like the reverse of how young voters voted for Cuccinelli in 2013 in Virginia and then voted overwhelmingly Northam this year?

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

To be fair, I wouldn't really look too far into the 18-29 year old vote in most of these polls. Young people don't really turn out in offyear elections, and the ones that do this year will probably be a lot more democratic than young people as a whole.

Also low sample size for this group in polls.

Kind of like the reverse of how young voters voted for Cuccinelli in 2013 in Virginia and then voted overwhelmingly Northam this year?

Yeah. My theory is that in offyear elections, the young people who don't like the presidents party turn out way way more than people who do like the presidents party (more than other age groups).

Presidential years are more important to look at when evaluating generational trends IMO.

[heatcharger]

Kind of like the reverse of how young voters voted for Cuccinelli in 2013 in Virginia and then voted overwhelmingly Northam this year?

Why are you saying things that are verifiably false? Lil' Rob Sarvis was stealing votes from McAuliffe, so that's why it looks "close". Don't act like Cuccinelli's weirdo social conservatism was in any way attractive to young people.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Kind of like the reverse of how young voters voted for Cuccinelli in 2013 in Virginia and then voted overwhelmingly Northam this year?

Why are you saying things that are verifiably false? Lil' Rob Sarvis was stealing votes from McAuliffe, so that's why it looks "close". Don't act like Cuccinelli's weirdo social conservatism was in any way attractive to young people.

18-24s did, 45-39:
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2013/images/11/05/va.gov.exit.polls.1120p.110513.v2.final[1].copy.pdf
https://www.politico.com/story/2013/11/ken-cuccinelli-bright-spot-young-voters-099568

[NOVA Green]

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D+35 Differential between those under 45 relative to those over 45. I would point out that Griffin found similar differentials in 2014 exit polling in GA, TX, MS and SC.

Young white Southerners ARE NOT Republican enough to keep the GOP above water. Generational change will pull the top line white vote down and these states will flip. Alabama might take the longest of that group to flip though. This is not the suburban massacre like in Virginia (which was mixture of natural generation change and in migration), though it certainly will manifest in the suburbs. This is native generational change against the back drop of an immovable object, the Democratic Vote among African Americans.

There is no question that Southern White University students voted heavily Democratic in 2016, based upon some of the research that I have been performing over the past few months...

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=273504.150

Here are the charts of results by City for Division I-A Football Communities in America ( A few need updating: Results from Annapolis were incorrect, Louisville, and Mobile need to be updated...





Although, I haven't yet gone back yet and run the numbers for many of the University precincts, since my original intention was to run a "simple project" of crunching precinct numbers for municipalities rather than individual precinct level analysis, later on I started flagging and including these in my data, although it wasn't the original intention of the project.

I do intend and going back and running these numbers for "Dorm" vs "Off-Campus overwhelmingly 18-29 yrs precincts), since I still have detailed Excel precinct spreadsheets for many of these counties on my computer.

Still, it appears that based upon precinct level data, HRC won the most heavily University precinct in Jonesboro, Arkansas (50- 43 D); Durham (Duke University EV precinct)- (87-9 D); LSU dorm precincts (Baton Rouge, LA)- (82-13 D), LSU "Off-Campus "Student Ghetto (57-31 D), University of Louisiana- Monroe "dorm vote" (68-28 D), University of Louisiana- Lafayette "student precincts (3:1 Democrat), Georgia Southern University (Statesboro, GA) "student precinct (59-34 D), Florida State University "Dorm Vote" (60-34 D), FSU "Off Campus Vote"- 2:1 Dem; University of Miami student precincts- (63-33 D); Florida State University "Dorm Vote" (65-31 D), FSU- Off Campus (58-38 D); Tennessee State University (Murfreesboro MTSU Campus) (58-42 D); Vanderbilt University Dorm and Off-Campus (84-14 D); University of South Alabama (Mobile)--- "Dorm Vote" (69-29 D), "Off Campus Vote"- (85-14 D).

Now, don't take my word as Gospel, however the precinct level results are true and correct, and easily fact-checked....

Extreme Republican has also posted data which appears to corroborate the data in terms of Southern White University voters in Tennessee, and also other data where he suggests that Trump won the "Dorm Vote" in Tuscaloosa and Auburn (Although I am skeptical about both considering these are heavily Uni downs, where the former City voted Democratic by +14%, and the latter City 'Pub by + 12%.

Obviously the Millennial vote is a lot more than just a few relatively elite White/Anglo dominated Southern Universities in Alabama (And much of the South at large), and I have also pulled numbers from various historically African-American Colleges and Universities, as well as Community Colleges, etc, which is actually where the vast majority of working and middle-class Millennials actually attend college, to both save bucks on University credits before transferring to a State school, get a two year Voc-Ed degree, etc....

Now , let's say that extreme Republicans precinct numbers for University of Alabama and Auburn University precincts are correct for 2016 ....

What does that say about the current state of the Alabama Republican race, considering the overwhelmingly Upper-Middle Class White Alabama student body of these Universities, and in general the same voting block in other Southern Universities?

Let's say they narrowly voted for Trump, as opposed to only 15% of 'Bama Whites that voted HRC?

What does that mean in terms of the various swings we might be seeing in the exclusively White 'Burbs and Exurbs of Birmingham, Huntsville, Mobile, etc....

[Sir Mohamed]

Likely R -> Lean R.

I'm still sceptical, because we are talking about AL after all. But a fourth poll with a Jones lead and this is even Fox News might be a pattern. Hopefully it doesn't change until December 12.

[Fudotei]

The choices for the national GOP are to expel a U.S. Senator from their own party and subvert the will of the voters (Moore wins) or deal with a lost seat that they won by a 26% margin the last time it was contested.

34 point shift from 2008 to 2017. What are the chances that tax reform gets pushed back beyond this election and fails to get the necessary votes?

[Shadows]

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D+35 Differential between those under 45 relative to those over 45. I would point out that Griffin found similar differentials in 2014 exit polling in GA, TX, MS and SC.

Young white Southerners ARE NOT Republican enough to keep the GOP above water. Generational change will pull the top line white vote down and these states will flip. Alabama might take the longest of that group to flip though. This is not the suburban massacre like in Virginia (which was mixture of natural generation change and in migration), though it certainly will manifest in the suburbs. This is native generational change against the back drop of an immovable object, the Democratic Vote among African Americans.

You make a very good point. It is not just about winning Young Whites by huge number for Dems. It is the cumulative effect of both boomers dying & millennials coming to the voting age.

Let us say the Boomers who die are around R+40 for White Males while the new people coming into the voting age are R+5. Even that is a huge shift. GOP is losing the strongest voting bloc which is being replaced by a toss-up or lean R bloc.

Also, while people can argue that you turn conservative as you age, the rate here is clearly not massive enough to offset this change. The 30-45 odd generation for example is still very left leaning & liberal & has barely shifted rightwards. 2020 election will be an interesting test for the GOP & 2024 could be the realignment.

[ursulahx]

Also, while people can argue that you turn conservative as you age, the rate here is clearly not massive enough to offset this change. The 30-45 odd generation for example is still very left leaning & liberal & has barely shifted rightwards. 2020 election will be an interesting test for the GOP & 2024 could be the realignment.

Agree with your comments; but if global political events are teaching us anything, it’s that realignments are happening much faster than we’re accustomed to.