Will Erik Paulsen lose to Dean Phillips? (MN-03)

[The Arizonan]

Dean Phillips, prominent businessman and grandson of the columnist Dear Abby, is running to replace Erik Paulsen in the Third District and might actually pull it off. Do you guys think that he'll win?

[SamTilden2020]

I'd say Paulsen has worse odds than Lewis at this point.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Probably.  A lot can change in a year, but I doubt things will get better for Republicans.  The district barely voted for Trump, and is trending (albeit slowly) Democratic like the rest of the Minneapolis-St. Paul suburbs.  Lean D.

[The Arizonan]

I'd say Paulsen has worse odds than Lewis at this point.

Who? Jason Lewis?

[Nyvin]

Probably.  A lot can change in a year, but I doubt things will get better for Republicans.  The district barely voted for Trump, and is trending (albeit slowly) Democratic like the rest of the Minneapolis-St. Paul suburbs.  Lean D.

Hillary won MN-3 by 50.8% to 41.4%.    It was a nine point D win.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I'd say Paulsen has worse odds than Lewis at this point.

Nah, Lewis is a goner.  That said, things aren't looking great for Paulsen right now.

[Kingpoleon]

If Paulsen starts working on sponsoring Alexander-Murray and the current tax code with few modifications, I could see him winning by 6-7 points. As it is, I’d rate this Pure Tossup.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Probably.  A lot can change in a year, but I doubt things will get better for Republicans.  The district barely voted for Trump, and is trending (albeit slowly) Democratic like the rest of the Minneapolis-St. Paul suburbs.  Lean D.

Hillary won MN-3 by 50.8% to 41.4%.    It was a nine point D win.

Whoops, I misread this and thought it was MN-2.  Sorry.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I think Lewis loses, but I think Paulsen hangs on.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Both Lewis and Paulsen will lose and it won’t be particularly close.

[mvd10]

I think so. Republican in D+1 suburban Obama/Obama/Clinton county, he's not going to win this.

[Chief Justice Keef]

Paulsen and Lewis are both going down next year.

[Badger]

Probably.  A lot can change in a year, but I doubt things will get better for Republicans.  The district barely voted for Trump, and is trending (albeit slowly) Democratic like the rest of the Minneapolis-St. Paul suburbs.  Lean D.

Hillary won MN-3 by 50.8% to 41.4%.    It was a nine point D win.

Who the heck did the other nearly 8% vote for? That's a huge third party vote for this last election.

EDIT: I think I just answered my own question by discovering that nearly that same percentage voted Statewide for Johnson, Stein, plus other third parties end nearly 1% of the vote as write-ins. Surprisingly High.

[Jeppe]

It's too bad that it looks like Terri Bonoff isn't going to run again. Alicia Donahue has my temporary endorsement for this district, unless a stronger candidate steps in.

[Minnesota Mike]

I think Lewis loses, but I think Paulsen hangs on.

Agree. Paulsen is much more established and has won easily even in Democratic years. Lewis is a freshman who barely squeaked in in 2016.

[Virginiá]

I think Lewis loses, but I think Paulsen hangs on.

Agree. Paulsen is much more established and has won easily even in Democratic years. Lewis is a freshman who barely squeaked in in 2016.

He also has a lot of past remarks/actions that make for potent negative ads. Those are probably why his margin was so small. I doubt he survives next year. I could see Paulsen surviving, but not if Democrats win the House PV by 8 - 10 points.

[ilikeverin]

I'm skeptical.  Paulsen is just too milquetoast; he won by large margins even in 2008 and 2012.

[PAK Man]

I think Paulsen is too entrenched at this point to lose. So, no, I don't think he'll lose.

[Tartarus Sauce]

People are vastly overestimating how much entrenchment is going to save Paulsen. A lot of those NoVA Republican incumbents in the HoD that got tossed out two weeks ago had been there for decades. If Democrats are winning the popular vote by double digits in the midterms, Paulsen is occupying exactly the type of seat that's going to get swept up in the anti-Trump backlash.

[Tintrlvr]

I think Lewis loses, but I think Paulsen hangs on.

Agree. Paulsen is much more established and has won easily even in Democratic years. Lewis is a freshman who barely squeaked in in 2016.

People say this, but the "sophomore bump" is a real thing. Paulsen's years of seniority (but not that many years, really; if you were first elected to Congress since I've been politically conscious, you're not especially senior) mean he's already peaked in support. Lewis has potential, in theory, to gain some.

[BuckeyeNut]

Probably.  A lot can change in a year, but I doubt things will get better for Republicans.  The district barely voted for Trump, and is trending (albeit slowly) Democratic like the rest of the Minneapolis-St. Paul suburbs.  Lean D.

Hillary won MN-3 by 50.8% to 41.4%.    It was a nine point D win.

Who the heck did the other nearly 8% vote for? That's a huge third party vote for this last election.

EDIT: I think I just answered my own question by discovering that nearly that same percentage voted Statewide for Johnson, Stein, plus other third parties end nearly 1% of the vote as write-ins. Surprisingly High.

Eh, not really. Minnesota has a strong third party streak. Independence Party candidates alone frequently score more than 5%, so if a Libertarian was also running...

[Kingpoleon]

I think if Matt Dean or Keith Downey is the nominee, they will crack 45% and keep Paulsen in office.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I think Lewis loses, but I think Paulsen hangs on.

[Tartarus Sauce]

I think Lewis loses, but I think Paulsen hangs on.

It's not like you have a particularly good track record on predicting races as it stands.

[Pericles]

Atlas always seems to overestimate these entrenched incumbents, if 2022 is a Dem midterm then in 2021 I should start out by predicting almost all entrenched Dems in districts Trump won or barely lost lose, and then in the unlikely event my pessimism is unwarranted I can always change my predictions.