Cook Political Report Rating Changes

[Gass3268]

FL-26 / Curbelo / Lean R to Toss Up
IL-06 / Roskam / Lean R to Toss Up
MN-08 / Nolan / Lean D to Toss Up
NJ-11 / Frelinghuysen / Lean R to Toss Up
TX-07 / Culberson  /Lean R to Toss Up
UT-04 / Love / Likely R to Lean R
WI-06 / Grothman / Solid R to Likely R

Source

Current Ratings

[ajc0918]

Curbelo is better off retiring.

[Zioneer]

Glad to see that Mia Love is seen as vulnerable. Ben McAdams is the best candidate Democrats could possibly get for the district, technically even better than Matheson.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

Roskam is cooked against a good challenger. All the Dem needs to do is say "Pete Roskam raised your taxes by ending the state and local deduction" on a loop in DuPage, Lake and Kane counties.

[Nyvin]

Curbelo is better off retiring.

At the old age of 38, lol.

[PAK Man]

I really don't think Roskam is in as much danger as people say he is. That's pretty heavily Republican turf there (I grew up in IL-09, Schakowsky's district, and DuPage County is one of the more Republican parts of the state). And given the huge Democratic primary field, I have my doubts about his vulnerability. If he does lose, then a Democratic wave is imminent.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

I really don't think Roskam is in as much danger as people say he is. That's pretty heavily Republican turf there (I grew up in IL-09, Schakowsky's district, and DuPage County is one of the more Republican parts of the state). And given the huge Democratic primary field, I have my doubts about his vulnerability. If he does lose, then a Democratic wave is imminent.

The district is also quite well off, especially in the part of the district in St Charles and Barrington. Those areas are the epitome of the "I don't care about social issues as long as I get a tax cut" suburban Republicans. Important of course to note that it doesn't matter if those people actually lose out on the tax plan, only that they believe it. And there's a widespread perception that they will.

[Tekken_Guy]

Predictions for the next wave:

Lean R to Toss Up: Walters, Yoder, Lance, Paulsen, Sessions, Costello, Meehan, Fitzpatrick
Likely R to Lean R: Valadao, Hunter, Zeldin, Chabot, Donovan, Hultgren, MacArthur, Taylor
Solid R to Likely R: Pete King, Hererra Beutler, Calvert, Schweikert, Franks, Tipton, Wagner, Diaz Balart

[Lachi]

Is anyone getting any errors when trying to access the link?

[HAnnA MArin County]

Are the deplorables moving into MN-08?

[Heisenberg]

Are the deplorables moving into MN-08?

Well, the GOP candidate there seems pretty credible, and the field seems clear for him. Also, Nolan will get a primary from his left, I don't think he falls but if he does that helps the GOP.

[GlobeSoc]

Are the deplorables moving into MN-08?

Well, the GOP candidate there seems pretty credible, and the field seems clear for him. Also, Nolan will get a primary from his left, I don't think he falls but if he does that helps the GOP.

How exactly does one primary Nolan from his left?

[Indy Texas]

I really don't think Roskam is in as much danger as people say he is. That's pretty heavily Republican turf there (I grew up in IL-09, Schakowsky's district, and DuPage County is one of the more Republican parts of the state). And given the huge Democratic primary field, I have my doubts about his vulnerability. If he does lose, then a Democratic wave is imminent.

The district is also quite well off, especially in the part of the district in St Charles and Barrington. Those areas are the epitome of the "I don't care about social issues as long as I get a tax cut" suburban Republicans. Important of course to note that it doesn't matter if those people actually lose out on the tax plan, only that they believe it. And there's a widespread perception that they will.

But they're not getting a tax cut. At least not a meaningful one.

[Heisenberg]

Are the deplorables moving into MN-08?

Well, the GOP candidate there seems pretty credible, and the field seems clear for him. Also, Nolan will get a primary from his left, I don't think he falls but if he does that helps the GOP.

How exactly does one primary Nolan from his left?

EPA/mining issues. Nolan has been very supportive of iron mining in his district, even if it means going against the environmentalists. Some of his votes/amendments in favor of the mines have pissed off the environmentalists, IIRC.

[MT Treasurer]

AL-SEN has also been moved to Tossup, obviously. This is their current Senate map:

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Why is Arizona still a toss up?

[BudgieForce]

Why is Arizona still a toss up?

Because the little polling we've gotten has indicated as much.

[LabourJersey]

Frelinghuysen is way more vulnerable than people think. Mikie Sherill has a lot of money, is a good fit for her district and Rodney has gotten nothing but horrible press

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Why is Arizona still a toss up?

Because Cook's Toss-Up category appears to cover roughly 25% chance for the incumbent party to 75% chance for the incumbent party.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

I really don't think Roskam is in as much danger as people say he is. That's pretty heavily Republican turf there (I grew up in IL-09, Schakowsky's district, and DuPage County is one of the more Republican parts of the state). And given the huge Democratic primary field, I have my doubts about his vulnerability. If he does lose, then a Democratic wave is imminent.

The district is also quite well off, especially in the part of the district in St Charles and Barrington. Those areas are the epitome of the "I don't care about social issues as long as I get a tax cut" suburban Republicans. Important of course to note that it doesn't matter if those people actually lose out on the tax plan, only that they believe it. And there's a widespread perception that they will.

But they're not getting a tax cut. At least not a meaningful one.

Exactly why I think Roskam will lose.

[MT Treasurer]

AL-SEN has also been moved to Tossup, obviously. This is their current Senate map:

MN (Special) and TN are both Tossups.

[The Other Castro]

Well that's just weird.

[windjammer]

AL-SEN has also been moved to Tossup, obviously. This is their current Senate map:

MN (Special) and TN are both Tossups.

This is dumb lol.
TN is *at best* Lean rep

[Kamala]

8 tossup map is basically useless.

[Sestak]

MN-spec, AL, and TN are not tossups. I'd also argue NV should be Lean D, maybe WV too. 8 tossups is just a ridiculous amount of hedging.