Cook Political: A Democratic wave is coming

[GeorgiaModerate]

http://cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/wave-comin

[progressive85]

http://cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/house-ratings-changes-seven-districts-gop-majority-peril

It's going to be the best year for Democrats since 2006 - this is what I wanted to happen if Hillary lost.  Her loss will the party's biggest gain in a decade.

[Mr.Phips]

http://cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/house-ratings-changes-seven-districts-gop-majority-peril

It's going to be the best year for Democrats since 2006 - this is what I wanted to happen if Hillary lost.  Her loss will the party's biggest gain in a decade.

[Tintrlvr]

http://cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/house-ratings-changes-seven-districts-gop-majority-peril

It's going to be the best year for Democrats since 2006 - this is what I wanted to happen if Hillary lost.  Her loss will the party's biggest gain in a decade.

And the party's biggest loss. Neil Gorsuch (and other court nominees) alone is so devastating to the party and the future of the left and liberalism that the 2018 election is small beans.

[Arkansas Yankee]

http://cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/house-ratings-changes-seven-districts-gop-majority-peril

It's going to be the best year for Democrats since 2006 - this is what I wanted to happen if Hillary lost.  Her loss will the party's biggest gain in a decade.

And the party's biggest loss. Neil Gorsuch (and other court nominees) alone is so devastating to the party and the future of the left and liberalism that the 2018 election is small beans.

Hope so.  It was one of the major reasons I converted from Never Trump to Never Hillary.  Hope a Kennedy replacement will come also.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Before you all have orgasms, you might wait to see what happens in the coming Pennsylvanial special elections. Rural and most of Trumpian Virginia did not turn against the GOP.  Virginia has become a red (by Atlas' colors) northeastern state. Q

The GOP WON THE Supreme Court  and a Judge of the Commonwealth seats in state wide elections in PA. They did comparatively well in some counties and comparatively badly in some counties.  I do not see a wave building there yet.

I am not saying it will not build. 

I would suggest you be careful pushing Medicare for all.  Explaining how you will pay for it might be difficult.  It might boomerang on you.

I would also suggest you be careful driving white Catholics out of your party.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Before you all have orgasms, you might wait to see what happens in the coming Pennsylvanial special elections. Rural and most of Trumpian Virginia did not turn against the GOP.  Virginia has become a red (by Atlas' colors) northeastern state. Q

The GOP WON THE Supreme Court  and a Judge of the Commonwealth seats in state wide elections in PA. They did comparatively well in some counties and comparatively badly in some counties.  I do not see a wave building there yet.

Back it up. 1) the turnout in Pennsylvania was abysmal. There were almost as many votes counted in the NYC Mayoral election as there were in PA. 2) Democrats took 3/4 open state superior court seats. 3) There we two open Commonwealth seats. one winner was a Democrat and the one Republican that won (Fizzano-Cannon) barely took second place. 3) All liberal judges on the supreme court won the right to retain their seats by wide margins. 4) 5/7 supreme court seats are occupied by Democrats. The Republican that won was an incumbent and Pennsylvanians are generally favorable to incumbents.
But anyways, using the elections in Pennsylvania is a very poor defense.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Before you all have orgasms, you might wait to see what happens in the coming Pennsylvanial special elections. Rural and most of Trumpian Virginia did not turn against the GOP.  Virginia has become a red (by Atlas' colors) northeastern state. Q

The GOP WON THE Supreme Court  and a Judge of the Commonwealth seats in state wide elections in PA. They did comparatively well in some counties and comparatively badly in some counties.  I do not see a wave building there yet.

Back it up. 1) the turnout in Pennsylvania was abysmal. There were almost as many votes counted in .  the NYC Mayoral election as there were in PA. 2) Democrats took 3/4 open state superior court seats. 3) There we two open Commonwealth seats. one winner was a Democrat and the one Republican that won (Fizzano-Cannon) barely took second place. 3) All liberal judges on the supreme court won the right to retain their seats by wide margins. 4) 5/7 supreme court seats are occupied by Democrats. The Republican that won was an incumbent and Pennsylvanians are generally favorable to incumbents.
But anyways, using the elections in Pennsylvania is a very poor defense.

Touchy, touchy.  I did not say a wave would not  happen.  I said to wait for the Pa specials. 

Another point in your favor is the GOP winner were women.  Women have unique assets in judicial races.

However, it seems the GOP won of the Superior Court positions.

The fact that judges are retained in a retention election is irrelevant.  Ii is extremely difficult for a judge to lose a retention election 

[Orser67]

I don't know why everyone circle jerks over SCOTUS so much. Sure, if RBG, Kennedy and Breyer are replaced by Trump, the 2016 election will have been very damaging long-term, but Gorsuch replacing Scalia just maintains the status quo. And it's not like the Republican Justices besides Gorsuch are spring chickens either.

Yup. Kennedy retiring would have been devastating...but he didn't, and it's not clear that he will during Trump's tenure. It's not yet clear just how important the 2016 election was for the Supreme Court.

[Rookie Yinzer]

It's going to be the best year for Democrats since 2006 - this is what I wanted to happen if Hillary lost.  Her loss will the party's biggest gain in a decade.

If Trump wasn't so god-awful I wouldn't have been that upset about Hillary losing. The Democrat Party would be getting decimated in 2018. The Republicans winning is a pyrrhic victory. They suck at governing  and are about to pay dearly.

[Landslide Lyndon]

If Trump wasn't so god-awful I wouldn't have been that upset about Hillary losing. The Democrat Party would be getting decimated in 2018.

LOL.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

If Trump wasn't so god-awful I wouldn't have been that upset about Hillary losing. The Democrat Party would be getting decimated in 2018.

LOL.

What's so funny?

[Tintrlvr]

http://cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/house-ratings-changes-seven-districts-gop-majority-peril

It's going to be the best year for Democrats since 2006 - this is what I wanted to happen if Hillary lost.  Her loss will the party's biggest gain in a decade.

And the party's biggest loss. Neil Gorsuch (and other court nominees) alone is so devastating to the party and the future of the left and liberalism that the 2018 election is small beans.

I don't know why everyone circle jerks over SCOTUS so much. Sure, if RBG, Kennedy and Breyer are replaced by Trump, the 2016 election will have been very damaging long-term, but Gorsuch replacing Scalia just maintains the status quo. And it's not like the Republican Justices besides Gorsuch are spring chickens either.

Let's put it this way... 2008-2016 (or, perhaps more to the point, 1986-2016) would have been an extremely different time period, politically, if Merrick Garland had been on the Supreme Court instead of Antonin Scalia. "Maintaining the status quo" is disastrously bad for the Democrats in that context. Citizens United, Shelby County, Heller, Morrison, Casey, Lopez, Hobby Lobby, NFIB and many more seminal cases that have turned the country in a more conservative direction would have gone the other way (ah, and Bush v Gore, too).

[CapoteMonster]

Link's not working for some reason

[GeorgiaModerate]

Link's not working for some reason

The Cook Political site seems to be down.

[MarkD]

I agree there's going to be a Democratic wave next year that will increase the number of Democrats in most legislative bodies, .... except for the US Senate. The Senate is not even proportionally representative of the people, so it does not count in terms of giving us any reflection of the will of the people.

[Dr. MB]

If Trump wasn't so god-awful I wouldn't have been that upset about Hillary losing. The Democrat Party would be getting decimated in 2018.

LOL.

What's so funny?

http://www.conservapedia.com/Democrat_Party

[Arkansas Yankee]

A good economy may reduce the size of the wave.

Goldman Sachs predicts a great 2018:

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/17/goldman-sachs-says-2017-was-surprisingly-good.html

[GeorgiaModerate]

A good economy may reduce the size of the wave.

Goldman Sachs predicts a great 2018:

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/17/goldman-sachs-says-2017-was-surprisingly-good.html

Yes, the economy will certainly be a factor.  That also works the other way, though; if the economy takes a bad turn, the wave is likely to be even larger.  Keep in mind that the present D advantage in the generic ballot is with the currently good economy.

[Maxwell]

A good economy may reduce the size of the wave.

Goldman Sachs predicts a great 2018:

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/17/goldman-sachs-says-2017-was-surprisingly-good.html

i bet economic news is why Trump is at 37% approval instead of 27%.

[Landslide Lyndon]

A good economy may reduce the size of the wave.

Goldman Sachs predicts a great 2018:

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/17/goldman-sachs-says-2017-was-surprisingly-good.html

That's what Bill Clinton and the Democrats were saying in 1994.

[Pericles]

A good economy may reduce the size of the wave.

Goldman Sachs predicts a great 2018:

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/17/goldman-sachs-says-2017-was-surprisingly-good.html

That's what Bill Clinton and the Democrats were saying in 1994.

And what Republicans were saying in 2006.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

http://cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/house-ratings-changes-seven-districts-gop-majority-peril

It's going to be the best year for Democrats since 2006 - this is what I wanted to happen if Hillary lost.  Her loss will the party's biggest gain in a decade.

And the party's biggest loss. Neil Gorsuch (and other court nominees) alone is so devastating to the party and the future of the left and liberalism that the 2018 election is small beans.

I don't know why everyone circle jerks over SCOTUS so much. Sure, if RBG, Kennedy and Breyer are replaced by Trump, the 2016 election will have been very damaging long-term, but Gorsuch replacing Scalia just maintains the status quo. And it's not like the Republican Justices besides Gorsuch are spring chickens either.

RBG - 84
Breyer 79
Sotomayor 63
Kagan     57

Average 71

Kennedy 81
Thomas 69
Alito 67
Roberts 62
Gorsuch 50

Average 66 with Kennedy, 62 without.


Maybe not spring chickens, but they are younger than the liberals for the most part.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

A good economy may reduce the size of the wave.

Goldman Sachs predicts a great 2018:

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/17/goldman-sachs-says-2017-was-surprisingly-good.html

That's what Bill Clinton and the Democrats were saying in 1994.

And what Republicans were saying in 2006.

Clearly the Republicans need another recession so that they can pick up seats like in 2002.

Yeah, obviously that's not why they picked them up.